Dalvin Cook breaks loose for a second half touchdown in FSU's 30-26 win over Miami. (Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports)
This never was a system set up to be fair.
By definition, somebody … maybe a good many “somebodys” … was likely to be furious and frustrated, and justifiably so, most every season.
When you designate five “power” conferences, each with a champion, then establish a system that only allows four teams to even have a chance to play for the national title, the system is flawed from the start. Then, there’s the possibility of multiple teams within a conference having the same record, and don’t forget about the wild card, Notre Dame.
For sure, it’s better than what we had before. Just ask Oklahoma State (2011) when their equal and impressive won-loss record didn’t allow the Cowboys the chance to play for the championship. Ask Auburn, the poster child for unfairness, when the 13-0 Southeastern Conference title winners were left out of the BCS Championship Game (2004). And, long before that, we only had the polls, which were nothing more than opinions and you know what they say about those.
With only two weeks remaining in the 2014 regular season, plus conference championship Saturday, there are still two undefeated teams (Florida State and Marshall) and seven others with just one loss. It’s possible that a two-loss team could make it to the Final Four, but without some unexpected outcomes, those seven teams, excluding Marshall and one-loss Colorado State from the Mountain West, are the ones most likely to be in the semi-final games.
Who will probably be left out … and be left mad?
Here’s a look at the teams …
Florida State – The schedule hasn’t been the most challenging, but all you can do is win. The defending national champions have done that, several times with second-half, double-digit comebacks. Still to be played … at home against four-loss Boston College, most recently doubled up by Louisville; at home against four-loss Florida, most recently losing in Gainesville to South Carolina and firing its head coach; and then the ACC Championship Game against Duke or Georgia Tech, teams with a chance for the upset, but not a great chance. You may not like the Seminoles or their renegade quarterback or the enabling, indefensible attitude of their coaching staff, but they do win – and that’s what counts here. It will be hard to leave out Florida State.
Oregon – There will be strong sentiment for a West Coast representative and that would be the Ducks. The nation’s third-highest scoring team has put up at least 42 points in six consecutive games. Still to be played … a home game against Colorado, the 120th ranked team in scoring defense, losers of their last six games; and at Oregon State, which broke a four-game losing streak on Saturday by upsetting Arizona State. Any of four teams could represent the South Division in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but none will be a strong as Oregon. A loss is possible, but at this point, the Ducks should be favored in every remaining contest. A one-loss Pac-12 champion would be in the Final Four.
Alabama – Several weeks ago, after their loss to Ole Miss, my crystal ball column had the Crimson Tide winning the SEC championship and playing for the national title. That column got a lot of criticism, but that analysis looks pretty good now. With the win over Mississippi State, Bama controls its own destiny. Of course, it could lose the SEC Championship Game, and no two-loss SEC team is likely to play in a semi-final. But, Georgia’s chances for the upset suffered with the season-ending injury to tailback Todd Gurley, whose play was significant in the Dawgs win over Auburn. Missouri wouldn’t appear to have the horses to defeat Alabama, so if the Tide wins out, they would be there.
Mississippi State – The Bulldogs now need some help. The loss in Tuscaloosa leaves State on shaky ground. Their fans hope Auburn will pull the upset over Alabama in two weeks at Bryant-Denney. Auburn fans just hope their team will show up for the game … the team that impressively beat LSU at home and Kansas State and Ole Miss on the road, not the one that laid an egg against Texas A&M and Georgia. Based on its past two games, nothing makes you think that Auburn team will be there. So in order for the Bulldogs to make the Final Four, Bama would need to lose in the SEC Championship Game, while State defeats the Rebels, the team that has already defeated Alabama. That one-loss State team would have a better shot at the semi-final selection, but it still wouldn’t be a certainty due to its easy non-conference schedule.
Ohio State – How much will the early September home defeat to five-loss Virginia Tech hurt the Buckeyes? It did happen a long time ago, but if there are multiple one-loss teams, that could be the difference. Still on the Ohio State regular season schedule are hapless Indiana (which did beat SEC East contender Missouri in Columbia) and five-win Michigan, which could be playing for bowl eligibility and to keep Brady Hoke’s job. Resurgent Wisconsin, winner of five in a row since the upset by Northwestern, has the nation’s top running back and boasts the nation’s third-best scoring defense. Another loss is possible for the Buckeyes, but if they run the table, how do you keep out a 12-1 Big Ten champion?
Baylor and TCU – Bunching them together here because they are in the same unique position … one-loss teams from the Big 12 without a conference championship game. Will the chance for that extra win hurt, or will the teams benefit by not having that last chance to lose? The Horned Frogs have been ranked barely ahead of the Bears, but Baylor won the head-to-head match-up with a fourth-quarter comeback. TCU plays at Texas (a potential trap) and hosts Iowa State, so 11-1 is likely. Baylor entertains disappointing Oklahoma State, plays Texas Tech in Arlington, then hosts nationally ranked Kansas State, which could mess things up for the Bears. Both could lose again; both could win the rest.
So, you could end up with one undefeated team and six with just one loss. That probably won’t happen, but it’s easy to see how it could.
If so, my guess on the Final Four:
- Florida State
- Oregon
- Alabama
- TCU
Out the outside, looking in:
- Mississippi State … There’s not popular sentiment nationally for two SEC teams to be given preference over other Power 5 conference champions, plus the out-of-conference lineup was weak.
- Baylor … Ranked behind TCU despite winning their match-up. How aggravating if the conquered Frogs make the last quartet!
- Ohio State … How big would the loss to the Hokies look then?
That outcome would leave a lot of fans furious and frustrated and justifiably so.
But, then, this never was a system set up to be fair.
