Super Bowl 50 Preview — The UK Betting View

By Simon Milham

Britain’s No.1 American Football handicapper, MyClubBetting.com columnist and Lindy’s Sports UK editor Simon Milham ties down the trends, stares at the stats and offers some cool, calculated analysis for Sunday’s Super Bowl 50 matchup between Carolina and Denver, which takes place at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, home of the San Francisco 49ers.

Lindy’s Pro Football Season Preview Annual will again be on sale in the UK this summer – look out for it at WH Smith’s and all good newsagents.

TOP TRENDS

Underdogs have been a great Super Bowl bet in the last 14 seasons, going 11-3 Against The Handicap/Spread (ATS). Underdogs have won outright in the past four Super Bowls and in six of the last eight. New England started as a 1-point underdog last year and beat the Seattle Seahawks 28-14.

Teams that allowed fewer points in the regular season are 30-18 in the Super Bowl (in 2004 the Patriots and Eagles allowed the same number of points). The Denver Broncos conceded 296 points to Carolina’s 308.

Since 1995, the higher-seeded team has covered the handicap just twice in the last 17 Super Bowls. This is only the fourth time in 22 seasons that the number one seed from each Conference will meet in the final.

The team whose metropolitan area boasts the lower jobless rate has won 22 of the past 28 Super Bowls. Through November 2015, the unemployment rate for the Denver area was 3.2 percent, compared to 5.1 percent for the Charlotte metropolitan area.

The Point spread rarely comes into play with the Super Bowl, meaning you just have to pick the winner of the game. Favourites have a 32-17 record in the Super Bowl but are just 26-21-2 against the handicap. There have only been six instances where the favourite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1898 and 1976.

This Super Bowl has seen one of the biggest line moves in the title game. Carolina opened at -3.5 points favourites and they are expected to go off as 6.5-point favourites. The favourite has won 32 of the previous 49 Super Bowls.

Last year, $115.9 million was bet on the Super Bowl at Nevada sports books alone when Seattle was a 1-point favourite. The books won $3.2 million and they have turned a profit in 24 of the past 26 Super Bowls. Their only losses came in 2008, when the New York Giants upset New England and in 1995, when the San Francisco 49ers routed the San Diego Chargers.

The NFC owns a 26-23 edge over the AFC in the first 48 Super Bowl matchups. Carolina represent the NFC, Denver the AFC.

Backing the Underdog on the handicap and backing the Over on the points total would have paid off in the last three Super Bowls. However, that combination has never been successful on four successive Super Bowls.

Backing the Favourite on the handicap and Over on the points total has been the most successful combination, with 16 of the 49 Super Bowls won by the favourite and the Vegas line being eclipsed.

Carolina are currently 6.5-point favourites and the Points Total line is set at 44.5. The last team to be a 6.5-favourite with the line set at 44.5 points was in 1993, when the favoured Dallas Cowboys defeated the Buffalo Bills 52-17. Déjà vu?

Levi’s Stadium is a grass-covered field. The Panthers are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 games played on grass.

The Bronocs are 8-1 in their last nine games having accumulated less than 150 passing yards in their previous game.

Denver has won three of the previous four meetings with Carolina, including their last clash in Charlotte, which ended 36-14 on November 11, 2012. That was the only one of their four meetings to see the points total eclipsed.

There have been 29 Super Bowls were a team has been considered a 6-point favourite or bigger. In those games, the favourite has a 15-12-2 record, but on the last seven occasions, the favourite has an ATS record of 1-5-1.

Favourites have lost the last four straight Super Bowls and five of the last six overall.

The Points total line for Super Bowl 50 is currently at 44.5. In the last 10 Super Bowls where the Points Total line has been set at 44.5 points or less, the total has been eclipsed on eight occasions.

In Super Bowl history, the points total has gone over the Vegas line 25 times, and gone under 24 times 

Overall, the best team (as measured by regular season record) has won 25 and lost 15 Super Bowls. The other nine games involved teams with identical regular season records. Carolina has a 15-1 Regular Season record (the only loss coming against Atlanta), while Denver compiled a 12-4 regular Season record.

In the last 20 Super Bowls, on only three occasions has the favoured team won and the points total gone over the Vegas line (Denver 1999, Baltimore 2000 and Green Bay 2012).

Designated away teams have won 29 of 49 Super Bowls to date. White-shirted teams have won 31 of 49 Super Bowls to date. Carolina is the designated ‘away’ team this time but Denver will wear white jerseys.

How important is rest? Since 2005, Denver is 25-11-1 in season openers or in games after a bye week (includes playoffs). Carolina has compiled a 17-18-1 record over the same span. Denver quarterback Peyton Manning has won his last 10 regular season games coming off a bye week. He is a combined 12-9 in season openers and playoff games (1-2 in Super Bowls) in games after a week’s break.

Cam Newton is one of only four quarterbacks to have led an offense that scored 500 points in the regular season and take his team to the Super Bowl. The other three QBs all lost.

The NFL’s top-ranked offense has come to the Super Bowl 16 times. It is 8-8 in those games. The top-ranked defense has come to the Super Bowl 15 times. It’s 11-4 in those games. Denver boasts the top-ranked defense, Carolina has the top-rated offense.

The NFL officially began crediting sacks in 1982. Since then, there have been 13 teams with 50-plus sacks that have reached the Super Bowl. The Broncos are the 14th. The previous 13 went 9-4 – and three of the losses came in Super Bowls when both teams brought 50-sack defenses into the game.

Peyton Manning and Cam Newton have played each other once in their careers, a 36-14 win by Manning’s Broncos in 2012. Newton was sacked seven times and posted a career-low 5.9 Total QBR in the game.

DENVER OFFENSE v CAROLINA DEFENSE

The Denver attack will live and die on the arm of Peyton Manning, a fading legend of the NFL, who has a chance to go out on a high. The Broncos haven’t won a Super Bowl since 1998, when their last legendary quarterback, John Elway, rode out into the sunset on just such a high.

Manning, who suffered through the worst season of his career and dealt with a tear in the plantar fascia near the heel of his left foot that cost him seven starts, is two months shy of his 40th birthday.

Manning is going to Super Bowl 50 with the chance to become the first starting QB to win Lombardi Trophies for two different franchises. No question, this is likely to be is last rodeo for The Sherriff.

The weight of public sentiment will be behind him as he bids to earn a second ring. Yet the biggest focal point for the Panthers’ defense is not Manning, but stopping the Broncos’ ground game.

The Panthers have usually had the advantage of playing from the front, which often forces opponents to throw, rather than run. Consequently, Carolina’s impressive stats against the run (conceding an average of 86.3 yards per game) are slightly skewed. Opponents are averaging 4.0 yards per run (4.3 over the last three games) and a league-low 21.8 rushing attempts per game.

Arizona was forced to pay lip-service to the run when beaten 49-15 in the NFC Championship game. They managed just 60 net yards and, for betting purposes, the Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards in their previous game.

Carolina’s defense has been stout – the Cardinals committed seven turnovers in the rout – but if there is a weakness, it is their propensity for easing off the throttle.

Over their last five games of the regular season and post-season, the Panthers have been outscored 45-28 in the fourth quarter and that number looks a lot better because they outscored Arizona 15-8 in the NFC Championship Game.

In the pass-happy NFC South, Carolina’s pass defense has regressed from 2014 in terms of yards conceded. Last year they ranked 5th in the NFL in passing yards per game (219.1) but have dropped to 16th in 2015 (239.1).

Yet they have been tough in almost every other category, ranking first in team opponent incompletions per game (16.4) and, while they ranked 5th last year in Yards per attempt (6.4), this season they ranked second in the NFL (5.8) to Denver.

The Panthers rank 6th in total yards allowed (322.9 per game) and have a happy knack of creating turnovers, helped by opponents playing from behind and being forced to throw. Luke Kuechly has had a pick-six in each of Carolina’s playoff wins against the Seahawks and Cardinals. He excels at baiting quarterbacks into ill-advised throws, though doing so against Manning is difficult.

Josh Norman is an excellent cornerback, thought primarily an off-coverage defender who plays outside in a zone scheme. Carolina’s speedy zone defense will give Manning fits, but Robert McClain, who plays on the opposite side, is a back-up and opponents have been able to target him on the perimeter.

We expect the Broncos to align No.1 receiver Demaryius Thomas on the outside to the left of the offense on a regular basis.

The Panthers are a nickel zone defense that plays five defensive backs and two linebackers, rather than six DBs and a linebacker like a dime defense would.

So expect to see the Broncos use plenty of trips formations (three receivers aligned to the same side) to get Thomas matched against linebackers Kuechly or Thomas Davis. They are good cover linebackers but they are unlikely to win the match-ups on a repeated basis.

All-Pro linebacker Thomas Davis broke his arm in the NFC Championship Game. He has a metal plate and 12 screws holding together his right arm, where one bone broke into two. Still, he expects to play.

The Panthers need Davis. Before he broke his arm, Davis was having perhaps his best season. He collected 105 tackles. His 5½ sacks were a career high. He made four interceptions and forced four fumbles.

How effective will he be, because he has to make tackles, wrap up runners and fend off blockers? There is no question that he will be limited and the Broncos will target that weakness.

One area for concern is unlikely to be exposed by Manning’s diminishing arm strength. On throws 25 yards or more in the air, Carolina’s quarterback rating allowed is 13th in the league, at 79.0. They’re the second-best defense in the league per QBR on passes any closer to the line of scrimmage.

It would not be hard to like Denver’s chances more if strong-armed back-up QB Brock Osweiler were playing.

EDGE: PANTHERS

CAROLINA OFFENSE v DENVER DEFENSE

It is said that offense win games, defense win championships. Nice cliché, but a little over-used.

That was certainly the case when the Denver Broncos’ high-powered attack was shut down completely by the Seattle Seahawks in the Big Game two years ago. The Broncos have since morphed into a staunch defensive unit, one that held Tom Brady and the New England Patriots to 18 points in the AFC Championship Game.

The Broncos held on fourth down inside the 20-yard line on consecutive drives before allowing Rob Gronkowski to haul in a four-yard TD pass with 12 seconds left. They held on to win 20-18.

The Panthers franchise is 21 years young and could have a coming-of-age party with a first Super Bowl victory.

Their sole defeat was a bizarre one, losing to an Atlanta team that they had thrashed 38-0 only two weeks previously. In that defeat, they passed more than usual and Newton had a bad day at the office.

Standing in their way is a Denver defense which led the league for the first time in franchise history.

A feature of their second win against the Patriots this season was the play of DeMarcus Ware and Derek Wolfe, who applied plenty of pressure on Tom Brady, and complemented a “No Fly Zone” secondary that was missing safeties TJ Ward (ankle) and Darian Stewart (knee) by the end of the game.

Ward is 5-11, 200 pounds. He will face Carolina TE Greg Olsen, who is 6-5, 243.

In the Carolina run-heavy attack, Olsen has just six receptions and 120 yards less than the team’s No. 2 and No. 3 most productive receivers Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery. Olsen does not have the size to take over a game like Gronkowski, but he does provide a dangerous challenge for a Broncos defense that will have to play a little bit more matchup zone to defend him effectively.

Denver’s run defense allowed just 81.4 yards per game and led a unit that topped the NFL in the regular season, allowing just 283.1 yards per game and just 296 total points (averaging 18.5 points per game).

While edge rushers Von Miller, Wolfe and Ware get the plaudits up front, Denver’s secondary creates plenty of coverage sacks. Miller, Ware and cornerbacks Chris Harris and Aqib Talib were selected to the Pro Bowl.

While the speedy Ted Ginn can take the top off a defense, he has never been the crispest route-runner and has been plagued by drops. Cotchery has bounced around the league and is not an elite pass-catcher, more of a possession receiver.

Olsen is a threat, but one that can be limited by Denver’s inside linebackers, Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan, who will chip at the line of scrimmage, with Ward or Darian Stewart covering over the top. Trevathan led the team in run tackles with 77, 18 more than Marshall.

Given Carolina’s run-heavy attack, led by Jonathan Stewart, Trevathan will have to have a big game if the Broncos are to pull off the victory.

The Denver defense allowed more than 30 points in a game only once this season. The Broncos held two opponents without an offensive touchdown, four other opponents to a single TD and six more foes to two offensive touchdowns. This is a defense that gives up points grudgingly.

But Carolina’s offensive line makes everything happen. Newton is allowed all kinds of time to find his receivers, and he keeps plays alive with his legs. He has 10 rushing TDs this season.

One knock on Newton: He does have a nasty habit of holding on to the ball too long and Denver’s pass rush could get to him. The question is, how much? Will it be enough to keep the Panthers’ O on the sidelines and get them out of their rhythm?

The Carolina offense scores points at will. The Panthers led the NFL and became only the 19th team in NFL history to score 500 points in a season. They slapped 31 points on Seattle and the NFL’s No. 2-ranked defense in the NFC semi-finals, then blasted Arizona and the NFL’s fifth-ranked defense for 49 points in the NFC title game.

Newton has the occasional accuracy issues but offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s ability to game-plan to his strengths, with a limited receiving corps, has been one of the most remarkable and unsung stories of the season.

EDGE: BRONCOS

SPECIAL TEAMS

Denver’s kick and punt return team can get them in trouble. Not often, but in a close game it could be all the difference.

They rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL when it comes to punt return yardage allowed, and they can’t sleep on Ginn, whose biggest asset is speed.

Punter Britton Colquitt has been unreliable and he must avoid giving the Panthers a short field.

Place-kicker Brandon McManus was faced with some critical field goals towards the end of the season and failed to make them. You would not want to bet the house on him should it come down to kicking a game-winning/tying field goal.

Panthers’ kicker Graham Gano made 30 of 36 field goals with a long of 52 yards and was 13-16 from between 40-49 yards.

Punter Brad Nortman averaged 45.4 yards with a net of 39.8 yards, so is solid enough.

EDGE: PANTHERS

VARIABLES

Betting Market – There has been quite a swing since the opening lines were announced two weeks ago. Carolina opened up as a 3.5-point favorite, but the money has come in on the Panthers and they are now 6.5-point favorites. That’s the equivalent of a field-goal swing, which is a significant move, particularly in a game of this magnitude.

The Stadium – There has been plenty of murmurings about the state of the natural grass field surface at Levi’s Stadium, the new $1.3 billion home of the San Francisco 49ers. The field conditions have been mostly horrible since it opened in 2014.

Last August, the 49ers had to cancel a practice there because the field was so bad, and then they replaced the turf entirely. Large divots of turf are often seen flying in different directions as players cut through it in their cleats.

But, as per protocol, the NFL replace the field in each Super Bowl stadium after the conclusion of the team’s final game. This will be a new field.

Turnovers – Out of 49 Super Bowl champions, only five of them lost the turnover battle in the big game. The 2014 Patriots lost it by one, the 2005 Steelers lost it by one, the 1988 49ers lost it by one, the 1979 Steelers lost it by two, and the 1970 Baltimore Colts lost it by three.

Only nine of the 49 Super Bowl winners ended up tying the turnover battle.

ANALYSIS

The Broncos have already lost five Super Bowls, the most ever. With a win, the Broncos would become the ninth team to win three Super Bowls. When the Broncos lose the Super Bowl, they lose big. They have been outscored 206-58 in their five Super Bowl losses.

Many are expecting them to lose big again, particularly when faced with such a potent attack.

And that could happen. Panthers’ backers should certainly be concerned by the broken arm suffered by Thomas Davis, a big cog in the Panthers’ defensive machine.

Manning’s arm strength will be a problem against a fast, zone defense. The ball has not been coming out with much zip and, while they did defeat the defending champions twice this season, they did it on the back of their marauding defense. The Broncos’ defense has not faced such an efficient, potent attack, however.

We would love to see Denver win and Manning go out on a high. Nothing would please us more. But if they get behind, we find it tough to see them coming back.

The Panthers led the league with 526 carries this season and Jonathan Stewart is a powerful back who gains tough yards. Denver rank next-to-last in the NFL in short-yardage run defense. So expect a lot of short runs which sets up Newton play-action.

Few teams have been able to stop the Panthers’ attack, but they have ridden a soft schedule. They may not be the offensive buzz-saw that many imagine them to be – they are limited when they come up against a tough run defense – and they have a soft underbelly, having given up some big leads. The weight of money says we should follow the favorites to cover.

This particular match-up is a real head-scratcher, though.

Denver shouldn’t really be here. As a whole, they don’t look like a championship team and haven’t all season. Their defense does look championship caliber, however, and it has shut down arguably the greatest-ever QB twice this season.

Newton is going to dominate in the NFL for the next 10 years, but he is not at Tom Brady’s level. Not yet.

We’ll take a surprise Denver win, going against the weight of money and what our eyes are telling us. We think the Broncos will get at least a couple of turnovers and take advantage, allowing The Sherriff to ride off into the sunset with his second Super Bowl ring.

VERDICT: DENVER 31 CAROLINA 20

BEST BET: CAROLINA UNDER 25.5 POINTS @ 1.85

HANDICAP: DENVER +6.6 @ 1.75

TOTAL POINTS: OVER 44.5 @ 1.85

FIRST SCORING PLAY: CAROLINA FIELD GOAL @ 4.33

FIRST TD SCORER: EMMANUEL SANDERS @ 17.00

RACE TO 10 POINTS: DENVER @ 2.38 HT/FT: CAROLINA/DENVER @ 9.50 WINNING MARGIN: DENVER 7-12 POINTS @ 10.00

TEAM TO SCORE FIRST: CAROLINA @ 1.67

SUPER BOWL MVP: DEREK WOLFE @ 126.00

 

All odds are taken from the MyClubBetting.com sportsbook.