The battle of the Lone Star State plays out in primetime Monday night when the Texans visit the Cowboys, who are winless at home and trotting out backup Cooper Rush at quarterback with Dak Prescott done for the season.
Losing streaks usher each team into “Monday Night Football.” Houston coughed up a 23-7 lead against the Lions to suffer a second straight loss, while Dallas is winless in four consecutive games and starting a window of three games in 10 days.
The injury report is particularly critical. The Texans’ defensive line won’t have starters Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) and Folorunso Fatukasi (foot) available.
But Houston does welcome back wide receiver Nico Collins from an injured reserve stint due to a hamstring problem.
Dallas will have to navigate the rest of the season without Prescott, who required season-ending surgery for his hamstring issue. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was a late addition to the injury report, though the team does expect him to play Monday.
Cowboys cornerbacks DaRon Bland (foot) and Jordan Lewis (neck) won’t see any action after being ruled out.
While the injury report is a big reason the Texans moved two points — from laying five points to -7 — this matchup might not be the slam dunk that some view it as on paper.
–Problems in Big D
Dallas was already in trouble even before the Prescott injury. Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones has drawn plenty of criticism for how he put the roster together.
Jones cited salary cap constraints as the reason for passing on signing running Derrick Henry at a cut rate during the offseason when he was available as a free agent, and didn’t even consider top-dollar signings such as Saquon Barkley.
The decision looks worse each week. Henry leads the league in yardage, yards per carry and touchdowns and Barkley is putting together an MVP highlight reel for the Eagles.
Jones even doubled down on his comments by saying that while Henry is having a great year with Baltimore, it’s unlikely that the nine-year veteran would’ve had similar success with the Cowboys because they run a different type of offense.
The problem with this statement is that Henry was successful as a straight-ahead runner for the Titans, and one has to expect that a Hall of Fame-level running back in peak condition can still get the job done in various schemes.
Dallas clearly had a void at running back after opting not to resign Tony Pollard. Henry might have been able to mask some of the deficiencies within the Cowboys’ offensive line, which has taken a step back relative to recent dominant front five groups.
Defensively, the Cowboys were always more of an opportunistic team that benefited from turnovers, which isn’t always a sustainable metric.
Nonetheless, even with their problems, I’m not sure they warrant the Cowboys catching seven points as home underdogs.
–Prop Stop
Joe Mixon has become the bread-and-butter option in the Houston offense.
With Collins back on the field and Dallas’ health concerns in the secondary, the Cowboys are certain to be on their heels anticipating C.J. Stroud will push the ball to Collins and Tank Dell.
It’s Mixon who could be in for a lunchpail shift Monday. That’s because Dallas has been steamrolled in the running game the past four games, allowing 173.5 yards per game.
Mixon has 24 carries or more in four consecutive games and five 100-yard rushing games despite missing three due to injury.
Prop pick: Joe Mixon 100+ rushing yards, +152 (FanDuel)
–A first-half wager worth considering
We’ll learn plenty about the Cowboys’ resolve Monday and over the next 10 days.
Whether they can put forth a better effort after last week’s 34-6 loss to the Eagles is not clear. Between Rush and Trey Lance, the Cowboys longest pass play went all of 10 yards. The Cowboys had 49 yards passing while averaging 2.6 yards per play.
It’s difficult to think that they can play much worse, and I know the public is lining up to fade them against the Texans.
We must note that teams have struggled to get back up to speed in their following game after facing the Lions. Detroit is known to be a very physical team, and its opponents are just 2-6 straight up and 0-8 against the spread in their next game.
Those numbers are certainly enough reason for me to pause on backing Houston.
However, Collins’ return should bring Houston juice.
With Collins on the field, Houston went 4-1. While losing Stefon Diggs to an ACL injury remains a colossal blow to the Texans, Collins is more than capable of occupying that No. 1 wide receiver position.
The Texans went scoreless for the final two quarters against the Lions, and I think there will be a concerted effort to get the offense up and running again with a fast start.
Houston ranks seventh in first-half scoring with 14.2 points per game, while the Dallas defense allows a league-worst 24.3 at home in this spot. They’ve given up points in 18 consecutive quarters, a sign of weary legs and lagging effort.
As a result, I prefer to pass on the points spread altogether and back the Texans to go over their first-half team total of 11.5 points.
Best bet: Texans 1H team total over 11.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)
–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media
