Drafting a quarterback first overall will not guarantee a turnaround, sustained success and certainly not a Super Bowl.
The Tennessee Titans picked Cam Ward with the top pick in the 2025 draft after a three-win season with the idea the Heisman Trophy finalist can be a driving force in a rebound from the AFC South cellar.
Jacksonville, which still employs No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence, can attest to the challenges and growing pains associated with being in this position. The Jaguars were right back in the top 10 of the 2025 draft and made another coaching change — hiring Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen — in an effort to compete for something other than top draft choices.
The Colts once had a No. 1 pick, Andrew Luck, opt for early retirement. Their most recent top-five pick, Anthony Richardson, failed to secure the starting job after two seasons and the 2023 No. 4 overall pick is the backup to Giants’ castoff Daniel Jones.
Houston, which drafted C.J. Stroud second in 2023, has been to the postseason in consecutive seasons with a division title in each of the former Ohio State quarterback’s first two seasons.
The Texans also offered a softer landing than the three teams competing with Houston in that Stroud was placed on a roster with a Pro Bowl left tackle (Laremy Tunsil was traded to the Commanders in the most recent offseason), developed a No. 1 receiver in Nico Collins and bring a downright nasty pass rush to the party.
As Lawrence and Jones tiptoe into another crossroads season, the lesson for those franchises and the Titans reaches far beyond getting the QB1 right.
Here’s how we envision the AFC South shaking out in 2025:
1. Houston Texans (13-4)
Schedule
W1 Sun Sep 7 at Los Angeles Rams
W2 Mon Sep 15 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
W3 Sun Sep 21 at Jacksonville Jaguars
W4 Sun Sep 28 vs Tennessee Titans
W5 Sun Oct 5 at Baltimore Ravens
W6 Bye
W7 Mon Oct 20 at Seattle Seahawks
W8 Sun Oct 26 vs San Francisco 49ers
W9 Sun Nov 2 vs Denver Broncos
W10 Sun Nov 9 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
W11 Sun Nov 16 at Tennessee Titans
W12 Thu Nov 20 vs Buffalo Bills
W13 Sun Nov 30 at Indianapolis Colts
W14 Sun Dec 7 at Kansas City Chiefs
W15 Sun Dec 14 vs Arizona Cardinals
W16 Sun Dec 21 vs Las Vegas Raiders
W17 Sun Dec 28 at Los Angeles Chargers
W18 Sun Jan 4 vs Indianapolis Colts
Front wall: Stroud was sacked 52 times last season and Houston felt it was getting little push off the line of scrimmage. Even without Joe Mixon (non-football injury list), the Texans have capable backs in Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce who should love running behind rookie Aireontae Ersery. At 6-6, 330, he doesn’t have the footwork of Tunsil but coaches described him as a hungry finisher, a harbinger of the tone of the offense the Texans hope to employ. If smashmouth isn’t your thing, consider the group of wide receivers Stroud now has led by Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Christian Kirk and two rookies. Houston picked Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins (34th overall) and Jaylin Noel (79th) in successive rounds in April.
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-8)
Schedule
W1 Sun Sep 7 vs Miami Dolphins
W2 Sun Sep 14 vs Denver Broncos
W3 Sun Sep 21 at Tennessee Titans
W4 Sun Sep 28 vs Los Angeles Rams
W5 Sun Oct 5 vs Las Vegas Raiders
W6 Sun Oct 12 vs Arizona Cardinals
W7 Sun Oct 19 at Los Angeles Chargers
W8 vs Tennessee Titans (date TBD, likely in Week 8)
W9 Sun Nov 2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
W10 Sun Nov 9 vs Atlanta Falcons (Berlin)
W11 Bye
W12 Sun Nov 23 at Kansas City Chiefs
W13 Sun Nov 30 vs Houston Texans
W14 Sun Dec 7 at Jacksonville Jaguars
W15 Sun Dec 14 at Seattle Seahawks
W16 Mon Dec 22 vs San Francisco 49ers
W17 Sun Dec 28 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
W18 Sun Jan 4 at Houston Texans
Rookie in the red zone: Head coach Shane Steichen was drawn to every part of tight end Tyler Warren’s game before the Colts used the 13th pick in the 2025 draft to bring him into the fold. Warren’s athletic measurements didn’t stack up to some of the other tight ends in the class — namely Michigan’s Colston Loveland, who was the 10th overall pick by the Bears — but the Colts scored Warren extremely high for football IQ, toughness, competitiveness and instincts. Quarterback Daniel Jones said all of that is obvious on the field, but keep this in mind when the Colts are inside the 20. Jones had the worst completion percentage in the NFL in the red zone last season, when his No. 1 target was rookie Malik Nabers. In Warren, Jones noted his “feel and instinct for space, getting open” which combined with his size and power makes this an easy combination to envision.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9)
Schedule
W1 Sun Sep 7 vs Carolina Panthers
W2 Sun Sep 14 at Cincinnati Bengals
W3 Sun Sep 21 vs Houston Texans
W4 Sun Sep 28 at San Francisco 49ers
W5 Mon Oct 6 vs Kansas City Chiefs
W6 Sun Oct 12 vs Seattle Seahawks
W7 Sun Oct 19 vs Los Angeles Rams (London – Wembley)
W8 Bye
W9 Sun Nov 2 at Las Vegas Raiders
W10 Sun Nov 9 at Houston Texans
W11 Sun Nov 16 vs Los Angeles Chargers
W12 Sun Nov 23 at Arizona Cardinals
W13 Sun Nov 30 at Tennessee Titans
W14 Sun Dec 7 vs Indianapolis Colts
W15 Sun Dec 14 vs New York Jets
W16 Sun Dec 21 at Denver Broncos
W17 Sun Dec 28 at Indianapolis Colts
W18 Sun Jan 4 vs Tennessee Titans
Trevor to Thomas: New head coach Liam Coen cannot get enough of his newest No. 1 wide receiver. One of the playcallers who helped make Chris Godwin a household name in Tampa Bay, Coen is about to unleash a superstar in Brian Thomas Jr. The wide receiver set the South ablaze as a rookie and has skills to align at multiple positions because of his precision as a route runner. With No. 2 pick Travis Hunter Jr. creating a distraction and drawing media attention, Thomas could be the receiver the NFL is talking about by season’s end.
4. Tennessee Titans (4-13)
Schedule
W1 Sun Sep 7 at Denver Broncos
W2 Sun Sep 14 vs Los Angeles Rams
W3 Sun Sep 21 vs Indianapolis Colts
W4 Sun Sep 28 at Houston Texans
W5 Sun Oct 5 at Arizona Cardinals
W6 Sun Oct 12 at Las Vegas Raiders
W7 Sun Oct 19 vs New England Patriots
W8 vs Indianapolis Colts
W9 Sun Nov 2 vs Los Angeles Chargers
W10 Bye
W11 Sun Nov 16 vs Houston Texans
W12 Sun Nov 23 at Seattle Seahawks
W13 Sun Nov 30 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
W14 Sun Dec 7 at Cleveland Browns
W15 Sun Dec 14 at San Francisco 49ers
W16 Sun Dec 21 vs Kansas City Chiefs
W17 Sun Dec 28 vs New Orleans Saints
W18 Sun Jan 4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spar for Arch: Circle the Week 17 date on your calendar, especially if you are a draft fan. Let’s walk through a scenario in which two three-win teams tangle in Nashville a couple days before New Year’s. New Orleans, home to former prized quarterback Archie Manning, might be compelled to go three or four deep on the depth chart to avoid leaving the Music City with a fourth win. We know grandpa said Arch is staying at Texas. But if this scenario plays out, the Titans would also potentially be in position to pick first overall two years in a row — or hold an auction for the No. 1 pick. The Saints also wouldn’t mind looking at a few other quarterbacks in this draft class. Some love South Carolina dual-threat LaNorris Sellers. How’s this for a juicy potential pairing: LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is the son of current Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier.