Atlanta Falcons (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa – TV: FOX
*TV announcers: Dick Stockton, David Diehl, Krista Pink
*Keys to the game: The Falcons dominated everything except the scoreboard during a 23-20 overtime loss to the Bucs at home five weeks ago. Well, that and the turnover margin, which Tampa Bay dominated with an interception and three fumble recoveries while not turning the ball over once.
The turnovers have been mounting for Atlanta along with the losses, as the Falcons are now minus-three for the season. QB Matt Ryan is responsible for 15 turnovers with 12 picks and three fumbles lost and has made multiple poor decisions the past two weeks. The team’s veteran offensive leaders want more urgency, but thus far coordinator Kyle Shanahan has resisted ramping up the tempo. The Falcons know they can move the ball on the Bucs – they had 496 net yards in the first meeting – and RB Devonta Freeman returns from a concussion. But can they avoid the mistakes that have submarined the offense?
Bucs rookie QB Jameis Winston has stepped up to provide balance to the offense when defenses key in on RB Doug Martin. WR Vincent Jackson missed the first meeting, but teams with Mike Evans to give Tampa Bay a super-sized tandem that will create significant matchup issues for Atlanta. Martin averaged just 3.1 yards per carry in Week 8, but the Falcons’ previously top-ranked run defense was gashed for 191 yards by Adrian Peterson and the Vikings last week.
*Matchup to watch – Falcons RG Chris Chester vs. Bucs DT Gerald McCoy: McCoy didn’t get Ryan on the ground in the first meeting, but he did log three of the Bucs’ 10 quarterback hits. Chester is a valuable veteran who has helped steady the line, but he’ll struggle with McCoy’s initial burst.
*Player spotlight – Falcons WR Devin Hester: Expected to be active for the first time this season after recovering from a turf toe injury, Hester could provide a boost to the return game and the offense. Not only did he lead the NFL with a 13.3-yard punt return average last season, Hester caught 38 passes for 504 yards and two touchdowns. Field position and another skill threat can only help the Falcons’ offense.
*Fast facts: Winston has a 69.2 passer rating at home (five TDs, eight INTs) compared to 100.5 (11/2) on the road. Conversely, Ryan has an 84.2 rating (9/10) at home vs. 93.3 (7/2) on the road. … Ryan has thrown three picks and has a 66.6 rating when games are tied.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
The Falcons are too talented not to snap out of this funk at some point, right? They should have won the first meeting and should be able to move the ball better than they have since then, steadying a season that has been spiraling out of control while dealing a big setback to the surging Bucs.
*Our pick: Falcons 31-23.