Falling leaves. Carving pumpkins. Homecoming games. The St. Louis Cardinals.
What do all those things have in common? They’re October fixtures.
In the last four years, the St. Louis Cardinals have played 58 playoff games and won 31, more than any team in baseball. They have won seven playoff series, as well as the 2012 National League wild-card game, and have appeared in the NLCS the last four years.
There’s reason to believe the Cardinals can make it five in a row this October. They still have one of the league’s top pitching staffs, fronted by 20-game winner Adam Wainwright and the vastly underrated Lance Lynn. They have a solid bullpen, rife with hard throwers and anchored at the back end by Trevor Rosenthal.
Their offense should be better than it was last year, when it fell off dramatically, averaging only 3.8 runs per game and hitting just 105 homers. The addition of power bat Mark Reynolds to the bench should give this team another avenue with which to win games in late innings.
“I like where we are right now in the fact we have a couple of extra ways we can go about it,” manager Mike Matheny told Cardinals.com. “You could flood a bunch of righties in there, or we can let our lefties do their thing and have some serious horsepower ready for them late.”
Right fielder Jason Heyward, acquired in a trade, offers a potential boost to the lineup. Heyward has seen his power numbers drop the last two years while leading off for Atlanta, but he cracked 27 homers in 2012 and might be motivated for a big season while playing for a new organization — and for his next contract.
The Heyward trade also netted set-up man Jordan Walden but also comes with risk which highlights the possible downfall of this year’s club. Starting pitcher Shelby Miller, the type of young power arm any organization covets, was the main piece moving south.
Oscar Taveras’ untimely death last October was the reason St. Louis made the deal. The team needed a replacement in right field, where it had Taveras slotted as the starter, but it also removed one more cost-controlled option from its rotation.
And there are questions about the rotation, even though it is a strength. Wainwright missed time in spring training with an abdominal problem. Wacha missed nearly three months last year with a rare stress fracture. Fifth starter Carlos Martinez hasn’t proven he can consistently marry power stuff with acceptable control over multiple starts.
Unlike previous seasons, there aren’t a wealth of options ready on the farm. Left-hander Marco Gonzales, who the club sent down to Memphis so that he can pitch every fifth day, is essentially the insurance policy at this point.
Bottom line: The Cardinals are still the favorite in what should be baseball’s most competitive division, the NL Central. But if the rotation struggles with injuries or performance, this playoff-hardened crew might take this October off.
ROSTER REPORT
ROTATION:
1. RHP Adam Wainwright
2. RHP Lance Lynn
3. RHP John Lackey
4. RHP Michael Wacha
5. RHP Carlos Martinez
Wainwright is the unquestioned leader, a 20-game winner last year and a guy who wants to shoulder the load, even though the club would like to lighten it to keep him fresh for September and October. Lynn is criminally underrated, winning 48 games the last three years and learning how to channel his emotions more consistently.
Lackey should eat innings and pick up 15 wins. Wacha has shown outstanding control this spring after missing nearly three months last year with a fluky stress fracture in his shoulder. Martinez has wanted to start during his two-year big-league career, spent mostly in the bullpen. Now’s his chance to prove he can harness his ace-quality stuff.
BULLPEN:
RHP Trevor Rosenthal (closer)
RHP Jordan Walden
LHP Kevin Siegrist
LHP Randy Choate
RHP Seth Maness
RHP Matt Belisle
RHP Carlos Villanueva
Rosenthal bagged 45 saves last year, although he took Cardinal fans for thrill rides on many of them, often throwing more than 20 pitches an inning. Walden, who came along with Jason Heyward from Atlanta, offers closing experience if Rosenthal continues to struggle with command or is injured.
Siegrist was hampered by ineffectiveness and injury after a great 2013, while Choate is a classic situational lefty. Maness has been a ground-ball machine the last two years, while Belisle can work in middle or late-game relief. Villanueva is the kind of swingman every pitching staff needs.
LINEUP:
1. 3B Matt Carpenter
2. RF Jason Heyward
3. LF Matt Holliday
4. 1B Matt Adams
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. C Yadier Molina
7. CF Jon Jay
8. 2B Kolten Wong
Carpenter gets on base almost 38 percent of the time and often gets to scoring position of his own volition, making him a perfect leadoff man, aside from not stealing bases. Heyward is being asked to swing more and take fewer pitches to see if he can replicate his 27-homer season of 2012 for a team that needs power.
Holliday can still turn on a fastball and has a good eye, making him the easy choice to hit third again. Adams didn’t hit with as much power last year as some would have liked, but he did bat .288 and knock in 68 runs despite a DL stint in late May and June. Peralta led the team in homers and was arguably its MVP.
Molina missed 52 games in July and August, knocking his overall numbers down. Jay went from reserve to everyday player last year, hitting over .300. Wong showed surprising power, cracking 12 homers and supplying seven extra-base hits in the playoffs.
RESERVES:
C Tony Cruz
1B/3B Mark Reynolds
INF Pete Kozma
OF Peter Bourjos
OF Randal Grichuk
Cruz will again caddy for Molina, playing a game a week. Reynolds adds a proven power bat to the bench, having cracked at least 20 homers in each of the last seven years, and should enhance this bench dramatically. Kozma earned Daniel Descalso’s old utility job by showing he can play four positions this spring, and also improved his hitting considerably.
Bourjos was the starter in center field at the beginning of 2014 but simply hasn’t been able to hit enough to use his speed properly. Grichuk was headed for Triple-A Memphis until he jacked four homers this spring, forcing the club to reconsider its plans.
MEDICAL WATCH:
–LHP Jaime Garcia (shoulder) was placed on the 15-day DL March 27 after reporting arm fatigue after an 80-pitch outing in a simulated game on March 24. Garcia was on track to win the No. 5 spot in the rotation until then. It’s not known when he’ll resume throwing.
–RHP Adam Wainwright (abdominal strain) is going to get the start on Opening Night against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Wainwright made just three starts in exhibition games, but he increased his pitch count to 93 in Tuesday’s outing, working 6 2/3 innings.
–OF Tommy Pham (left quad) will open the season on the DL. Pham has battled injuries throughout his career and this one was poorly timed. Pham had made an impression early in spring training with five quick RBIs, but was hurt March 13. He’s out of options, so that makes his situation more complicated.