The 2015 NBA Draft lottery could be a means to the end of hard times for multiple franchises, but history indicates a more absolute path to heartbreak for at least one of the teams with the best chance to land the No. 1 overall pick in June.
The lottery, held Tuesday night in New York, determines the draft order for teams with the top 14 selections.
Odds are stacked in the favor of the worst teams in the NBA. However, the worst rarely has finished first in the lottery, which was established in 1984. The last time the team with the worst record wound up with the top pick in the draft was 2004. The Orlando Magic drafted Dwight Howard.
Milwaukee finished with the worst record in the NBA in 2013-14, but the Cleveland Cavaliers won the lottery and drafted Andrew Wiggins first overall last year. Cleveland also jumped ahead of Orlando, which finished last in the standings in 2012-13, to claim the top pick in 2013. Charlotte lost out on the top pick in 2012 — to the New Orleans Pelicans, who drafted Anthony Davis — and the Minnesota Timberwolves were leapt by the Cavaliers in 2011.
Minnesota was the worst team in the NBA in 2014-15, but the franchise has only a one-in-four chance of winding up with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft.
Minnesota nudged ahead of the New York Knicks, who won two of their final three games and now have less than a 20 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick in the draft.
The Timberwolves acquired Wiggins from the Cavaliers in the trade that sent All-Star Kevin Love to Cleveland last summer, and also brought back the No. 5 overall pick in 1995, Kevin Garnett, at the trade deadline.
One of the most intriguing scenarios in the draft lottery centers on the Los Angeles Lakers. If the Lakers run into bad luck, the needy franchise could lose the pick. The Philadelphia 76ers take the Lakers’ pick if that choice falls to six or lower.
The gems of the 2015 NBA Draft class include freshmen big men Karl-Anthony Towns of Kentucky and Jahlil Okafor of Duke.
Below is the draft order based on reverse order of 2014-15 standings. The first 14 selections, known as the lottery, are determined in a random draw of team pingpong balls.
The below list includes NBA-tabulated odds to earn the first overall pick, followed by odds to get a top-three selection, for all lottery teams.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves 25% 64.3%
2. New York Knicks 19.9% 55.8%
3. Philadelphia 76ers 15.6% 46.9%
4. Los Angeles Lakers 11.9% 37.8%
5. Orlando Magic 8.8% 29.1%
6. Sacramento Kings 6.3% 21.5%
7. Denver Nuggets 4.3% 15.0%
8. Detroit Pistons 2.8% 9.9%
9. Charlotte Hornets 1.7% 6.1%
10. Miami Heat 1.1% 4.0%
11. Indiana Pacers * .7% 2.5%
12. Utah Jazz * .8% 2.9%
13. Phoenix Suns .6% 2.2%
14. Oklahoma City Thunder .5% 1.8%