ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Only now does it seem as if this matchup was in the stars all along.
At various points in the past two months, though, it looked as if neither the New England Patriots nor the Denver Broncos would be in position to set up the 17th duel between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
Not when the Patriots struggled down the stretch, losing four of their last six games to squander home-field advantage in the playoffs, and not when Manning missed six games because of a torn plantar fascia and watched as Brock Osweiler outplayed him by virtually every measure.
Every measure, that is, except sack rate and winning percentage. Osweiler was sacked once every 13 pass plays, which short-circuited the offense. And though Osweiler led the Broncos to wins in four of the six games he started and finished, the Broncos had lost two of three and were behind 13-7 to the San Diego Chargers when Gary Kubiak re-inserted Manning in Week 17.
Since then, Manning has avoided the interceptions that crushed the Broncos offense early in the season, and the Broncos have averaged 30.97 points per 60 minutes. The sample size is small, but the offense is moving the ball when it needs to.
Even so, he will have to do better Sunday. So will the Broncos. For the first time since their first meeting in 2001, Manning and Brady are clearly at different levels.
Brady is still a Pro Bowl quarterback. With tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Julian Edelman at his disposal, Brady and the Patriots’ offense have not been contained, averaging 33.62 points per 60 minutes with Edelman in the lineup, 12.45 more points than they do when he is sidelined.
Manning, on the other hand, had a ghastly 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio that was the worst in the league. The Broncos were winning in spite of him as he struggled with his foot injury.
Against the Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Broncos again won because of him — but not because he could put up the kind of dizzying numbers that once defined him. They won because he controlled the tempo, made the right pre-snap checks and didn’t put the offense at much risk of turnovers. Only one of his passes was nearly intercepted.
The Broncos are an underdog in large part because of the discrepancy in the passing games, but there are other factors.
New England is effective in the red zone; the Broncos have more than twice as many field goals (seven) as touchdowns (three) since Manning returned to the lineup. And Denver’s top-ranked defense has become suddenly susceptible to big plays, surrendering four passes of more than 35 yards in the past two games.
There are reasons to believe that Manning can’t keep up with Brady. But for one game, in an environment in which Brady has struggled, can Manning dig deep one more time and find his old form?
“Confidence is high,” wide receiver Demaryius Thomas said. “It could be our last one, so the confidence in high. You don’t want to go in thinking about things and thinking about what we can do better or do different, so the confidence is high.”
Confidence is one thing. Performance is another. The Broncos’ offense has improved on the whole since Manning’s return, but just improving might not be enough. It needs to be better than it has been at any point in the season. It needs Manning to be a reason why the Broncos win, not just a game manager.
SERIES HISTORY: Fifth postseason meeting. Broncos lead postseason series 3-1, and lead the regular-season series, 26-20. The Patriots have won five of the past seven overall. The most historic meeting between the two teams was on Jan. 19, 2014, when the Broncos defeated New England 26-16 in the AFC Championship Game.
GAME PLAN:
For the Broncos, it starts with avoiding mistakes. They played just their second turnover-free game of the season last Sunday against Pittsburgh — and their first one with Peyton Manning at quarterback this year. That needs to continue, because the Patriots are 144-12 under Bill Belichick when winning the turnover battle, and they have won 35 of their past 37 games when doing so. They also are 15-0 in the postseason under Belichick in that scenario. The turnover margin was even in the teams’ Week 12 meeting.
The Broncos must also win in the red zone. Their offense has been more efficient with Manning in the past five-plus quarters, averaging 30.97 points per 60 minutes since he relieved Osweiler against the Chargers. But they have struggled in scoring range, as they have more than twice as many field goals (seven) as touchdowns (three). If Denver can maximize its red-zone chances — and keep the Patriots from capitalizing on theirs — the Broncos can pull the upset.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH:
–Broncos CB Chris Harris Jr. vs. Patriots WR Julian Edelman.
New England hasn’t lost a game in which Edelman has played this season, and its offense is vastly more efficient when Edelman is on the field, scoring 12.45 more points per 60 minutes with Edelman than without. Harris is expected to play despite an injured shoulder, but he will need to try to find a way to be physical and disruptive despite the injury, because if Edelman and TE Rob Gronkowski have free releases, they will find gaps underneath and room to roam.
–Broncos RBs C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman vs. Patriots LBs Rob Ninkovich and Dont’a Hightower.
Together, Ninkovich and Hightower stifled the Broncos’ ground game early in the teams’ Week 12 meeting; with both healthy, the Broncos mustered just 43 yards on 15 carries. But after Hightower left, Anderson and Hillman combined for 133 yards on 16 carries, including Anderson’s 48-yard, game-winning gallop in overtime. New England likes to use the two linebackers to target one spot in the blocking scheme, and it had some success in Week 12 sending both at the right side of the Broncos’ offensive line, where tackle Michael Schofield has been inconsistent at best.