by Drayton Holmes
The must-have state of Ohio and the surprise flips of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin loomed large in the GOP winning the Presidential race for the first time since 2004, under the campaign mantra of “Make America Great Again.” This season, the Big Ten has looked to become great again with several contenders still in the College Football Playoff mix.
The Big Ten’s drought doesn’t go back as far as 2004, but aside from Ohio State’s improbable run to the 2014 national championship, success on the biggest stage for the Big Ten has been elusive. During that span, four SEC teams … Alabama, Auburn, Florida and LSU … have won national championships. Ohio State was soundly defeated in consecutive championship game appearances in 2006 and 2007, both against SEC opponents, and the Big Ten wouldn’t return to the championship picture until the first year of the college football playoff in 2014. Michigan State gave the conference a second consecutive appearance in the playoff last season, but they were bludgeoned by Alabama. But despite droughts, embarrassing losses and constant comparisons to the more successful SEC, the Big Ten is in a strong position to all but guarantee a third consecutive playoff berth, and even has a shot at getting two teams in the Final Four this season.
With just one week remaining in the regular season, the “Rust Belt” states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin each have a legitimate contender, profiled below:
Ohio (Ohio State Buckeyes): The Buckeyes are the highest ranked of the Big Ten teams, currently ranked second in the playoff rankings. Most analysts say that the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will secure a spot in the playoff, however, the Buckeyes won’t even play in the Big Ten Championship Game if Penn State wins this weekend over offensively challenged Michigan State. The playoff committee has publicly pushed the importance of conference championships, so in this scenario, Ohio State would not even play for the league title due to a head-to-head loss to the potential Big Ten champion, Penn State. It’s hard to imagine the committee would leave Ohio State out, but it would be the first time in the new College Football Playoff format that a team got in without winning its conference. Ohio State would represent the biggest threat to Alabama with its combination of elite talent, Urban Meyer’s coaching prowess, and the dual threat capabilities of quarterback J.T. Barrett. The GOP had to have Ohio to win the Presidency, and the Big Ten needs to have Ohio State in the playoffs for its best shot to unseat the SEC.
Michigan (Michigan Wolverines): Michigan’s surprise loss to Iowa didn’t change its playoff outlook, as it all still boils down to the Ohio State game for Jim Harbaugh’s club. The outlook for Michigan is more simplified than Ohio State’s odd conference championship situation, as Michigan must win-or-else against its top rival. Michigan, unlike Ohio State, will win its division with a win over the Buckeyes since they hold a tie-breaking win over Penn State. That would set up a rematch with Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game with the winner likely securing a playoff berth. Michigan is seen by many as the next best chance for the Big Ten to win in the playoffs, but the Wolverines may not have enough offensive firepower to “Make the Big Ten Great Again.”
Pennsylvania (Penn State Nittany Lions): Prior to 2016, the GOP had not won Pennsylvania in a Presidential election since 1988. It has been longer than that since Penn State football last won the national championship (1986). But just as was the case in Presidential politics, Pennsylvania finds itself in a prominent position this football season. Ranked seventh in the new College Football Report standings, Penn State has a clear path to the Big Ten Championship Game and an almost certain playoff berth if it wins that game. But, this scenario is based on Ohio State beating Michigan. If not, it would be unlikely that Penn State could slide up to fourth in the rankings. So, Penn State just has to take care of business against the Spartans and hope like heck that Ohio State beats Michigan.
Wisconsin (Wisconsin Badgers): Not even the most hopeful GOP supporters would truthfully say that they saw Wisconsin flipping on Election Day, and equally few people predicted that Wisconsin would be in the thick of the playoff picture. The Badgers were unranked to start the season, but began their unlikely run with an upset victory over LSU. Wisconsin has all but locked up the considerably weaker Big Ten West, which sets up a showdown in the Big Ten Championship Game with one of the three teams from the East. Regardless of the opponent, Wisconsin will likely make the playoff with a victory. Of the “Rust Belt” contenders, the Badgers look least capable of a playoff win. They are devoid of star power and haven’t won a national championship since World War II. But a political outsider just won the White House, so stranger things have happened.
Can one of these teams “make the Big Ten great again?” That’s still to be seen. But, Big Ten fans have to be pleased that four conference teams still have legitimate playoff hopes. No other conference is even close to having as many contenders this season.