Top-seeded Louisville and fourth-seeded Michigan traveled different paths to get to the NCAA Tournament title game in Atlanta, but like all the national championship teams before them, only one team will cement its name in college hoops lore if it can win when the spotlight shines brightest.
Standing in one corner is the rugged Cardinals, led by future Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino, who is attempting to become the first college hoops coach ever to win a national title at two different schools (he won one with Kentucky in 1996). In the other is a super-talented Michigan squad, led by head man John Beilein, who is no slouch of coach himself.
All season long Louisville has relied on its defense to force turnovers and disrupt the opposition. The Cardinals lead the nation in turnovers forced (718), which has led to countless easy baskets in transition. Against Michigan, it will be crucial for Pitino’s club to disrupt a high-scoring Michigan offense that rarely beats itself. The Wolverines are tops in the nation with the fewest turnovers allowed per contest, which could play a big role in the outcome of tonight’s game.
Although Louisville may have the deeper team, Michigan may be the more talented squad when it boils down to it. Point guard Trey Burke was recently named the AP Player of the Year in college hoops, and stars Glenn Robinson III and Tim Hardaway Jr. have the skill-set needed to thrive in a big game such as this. And when you throw in Tournament star Mitch McGary, a 6-10, 250-pound bruiser down low, Michigan has the firepower to knock off the Big East champs.
If that is to happen, the Wolverines, with their size on the perimeter, will need to slow down Louisville’s terrific guard combo of Russ Smith, the Cards leading scorer (18.8 ppg), and Peyton Siva. Neither Smith nor Siva are taller than six feet, so they will need to use their quickness and dribble-drive ability to penetrate the Michigan defense. And while the dynamic duo has succeeded against other teams so far in the tournament by doing just that, they could find it challenging to have that same success against Burke (6-0), Hardaway (6-6) and Nick Stauskas (6-6) in this particular game.
If the size advantage for Michigan on the perimeter proves to be a problem for the Cardinals, then Louisville will need to rely more on the inside presence of Gorgui Deng (6-11, 225) in the paint and wings Luke Hancock, Chane Behanan, Montrezl Harrell and Wayne Blackshear to counter punch. The Cardinals may have to play more of an up-tempo game so Michigan won’t be able to clamp down defensively on Smith and Siva in half court sets. Louisville may also lean more on its full-court press defense to speed up the flow, which will allow Petino to use his depth and strength in numbers to his advantage.
No matter how ya slice it up this year’s NCAA title game has the makings of a great one. Louisville is playing lights out and has its heart set on claiming a title for teammate Kevin Ware, who broke his leg in the team’s Elite Eight win over Duke, while Michigan and its cast of stars is just out to prove it’s the nation’s top team. But when it’s all said and done, I like Louisville to cut down the nets tonight. But it will be a close one. In fact, it should be a classic.
The Lowe Down: Louisville 73, Michigan 70