Fantasy football is just around the corner, and, with the launching of Lindy’s new website, we’d like to bring you our top 10 fantasy players entering 2012. Keep up with us throughout the season for weekly fantasy updates. We wish your team the best of luck this fantasy season.
Here are Lindy’s Top 10 fantasy players for 2012. Happy drafting!
1. ARIAN FOSTER
TEAM: Houston HT: 6-1 WT: 229 AGE: 26
COLLEGE: Tennessee NFL SEASONS: 3
STATISTICS
RUSHING RECEIVING
YR TM G ATT YDS AVG YD/G TD REC YDS AVG TD
’09 HOU 6 54 257 4.8 42.8 3 8 93 11.6 0
’10 HOU 16 327 1616 4.9 101.0 16 66 604 9.2 2
’11 HOU 13 278 1224 4.4 94.2 10 53 617 11.6 2
SCOUTING NOTES: Big, strong workhorse … Runs behind his pads … Possesses good vision, patience, burst and balance … Can bounce out of tackles or avoid in close quarters … Makes yards after contact … Lacks the explosiveness of Adrian Peterson, but is better in the passing game.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: In each of the past two seasons, Foster has been the No. 1 per-game fantasy scorer at his position in standard formats. He’s also a PPR monster, averaging 4.1 receptions per game since 2010. Basically, no matter your league settings, this guy is a beast. The Texans tied for the NFL lead in rush attempts last year (34.1 per game), so workload isn’t a concern. Foster was sidelined in the opening weeks due to hamstring issues — we trust you recall the tweeted MRI episode — but he still managed to gain 1,841 total yards with 12 TDs. He was unstoppable in the playoffs, too, rushing for 285 yards and three scores in two postseason games.
FANTASY SPIN: For fantasy purposes, the ideal running back is a talented, every-down player tied to a juggernaut offense, preferably someone who rushes behind a dominant O-line. No one on the 2012 draft board fits that description quite as well as Foster. He’s a workhorse on a team that piles up yards and points.
Let’s not assume his value is negatively impacted by the return of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson; the run-pass mix may change a bit inHouston, but the offense should be more productive as a whole. Foster has the perfect set-up, and there are no blemishes on his fantasy resume. He’s the top pick in nearly all formats.
2. RAY RICE
TEAM: Baltimore HT: 5-8 WT: 212 AGE: 25
COLLEGE: Rutgers NFL SEASONS: 4
STATISTICS
RUSHING RECEIVING
YR TM G ATT YDS AVG YD/G TD REC YDS AVG TD
’09 BAL 16 254 1339 5.3 83.7 7 78 702 9.0 1
’10 BAL 16 307 1220 4.0 76.3 5 63 556 8.8 1
’11 BAL 16 291 1364 4.7 85.3 12 76 704 9.3 3
SCOUTING NOTES: Short, stumpy runner with excellent quickness, lower-body strength and balance … Features very good vision and burst inside and quick feet outside … Very difficult to knock off his feet … Catches the ball well as a receiver on the swings and check-downs.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: Rice has topped 2,000 scrimmage yards in two of the past three years, leading the NFL with 2,068 in 2011. He posted the league’s second-highest rushing total last season, found the end zone 15 times (plus he passed for a TD in Week 9), and was one of just two backs to catch 70 passes. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie campaign, and he’s averaged 356.7 total touches per year from 2009 to 2011. He was at his best last season when fantasy owners needed him most, outscoring all running backs over the final five weeks.
FANTASY SPIN: Prior to 2011, the only issue with Rice was his lack of consistent goal-line touches — and to be fair, that was really more of a John Harbaugh- Cam Cameron problem. Rice saw plenty of work in all areas of the field last season, however, and it resulted in a massive fantasy year. He had a classic gimme-the-damn-ball moment at midseason — after a loss toSeattlein which he had just five carries — and from that point on, he was never again a forgotten man. Rice had no fewer than 19 touches in any of the Ravens’ final seven games. If that’s the sort of workload we can expect going forward, Rice could be looking at a career year. Think of Foster as pick No. 1 and Rice as No. 1A.
3. LeSEAN McCOY
TEAM: Philadelphia HT: 5-11 WT: 208 AGE: 24
COLLEGE: Pittsburgh NFL SEASONS: 3
STATISTICS
RUSHING RECEIVING
YR TM G ATT YDS AVG YD/G TD REC YDS AVG TD
’09 PHI 16 155 637 4.1 39.8 4 40 308 7.7 0
’10 PHI 15 207 1080 5.2 72.0 7 78 592 7.6 2
’11 PHI 15 273 1309 4.8 87.3 17 48 315 6.6 3
SCOUTING NOTES: Compact back with very good speed, quickness and vision … Runs effectively inside or outside … Sees the inside cracks and gets in and out of them quickly … Shows a fluid gait and deceptive burst in space … Breaks tackles when he isn’t wrapped up … Good receiver out of the backfield.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: Entering the 2011 season, many were concerned about the possibility that Mike Vick would vulture short-yardage TDs in Philadelphia, thus limiting McCoy’s fantasy ceiling. As it turned out, that was a ridiculous worry. Here’s the final scorecard: one rushing TD for Vick, 17 for McCoy. LeSean added another three scores via the passing game, giving him 20 to go with 1,624 total yards. He was basically a one-man wrecking crew, an incredibly useful fantasy asset. He wasn’t quite as involved in the passing game as he’d been in 2010, as his targets declined from 90 to 69. But he managed to balance things out by establishing a career high with 273 carries, up 66 from the prior year.
FANTASY SPIN: McCoy finished second among all NFL running backs in per-game standard fantasy scoring last season, and in total points. With the ball in his hands, he’s as exciting as any player in the game; a threat to score on every touch. No matter your league’s format, McCoy shouldn’t fall outside the top five picks. He’s just one season removed from a 78-catch campaign, so we know he can be an elite PPR commodity. McCoy will get all the work he can handle in 2012. There isn’t another back on Philly’s roster that fantasy owners need to worry about; Dion Lewis is the handcuff, and Chris Polk is probably Plan C.
4. MAURICE JONES-DREW
TEAM: Jacksonville HT: 5-7 WT: 208 AGE: 27
COLLEGE: UCLA NFL SEASONS: 6
STATISTICS
RUSHING RECEIVING
YR TM G ATT YDS AVG YD/G TD REC YDS AVG TD
’09 JAC 16 312 1391 4.5 86.9 15 53 374 7.1 1
’10 JAC 14 299 1324 4.4 94.6 5 34 317 9.3 2
’11 JAC 16 343 1606 4.7 100.4 8 43 374 8.7 3
SCOUTING NOTES: Sawed-off runner with excellent strength, feet and balance … Hits the inside holes with quickness and authority … Excels off tackle when he can plant and go north-south … Can break tackles or make people miss … Finishes his runs … Reliable receiver.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: MJD is coming off a heroic season, a campaign that deserves recognition inCanton(or at least in the fantasy wing of the Hall of Fame, if such a thing exists). Despite the worst imaginable offensive context inJacksonville— bad rookie quarterback, no competent receivers, etc. — Jones-Drew never really had a dud week. In his worst total yardage game in 2011 (at Houston, Week 8), he still gained 74 yards from scrimmage and ran for a touchdown. He won the rushing title with relative ease, finishing 242 yards ahead of Ray Rice, and topped 100 total yards in 10 of his last 11 games. MJD somehow found the end zone 11 times for a team that averaged only 15.2 points per game.
FANTASY SPIN: Jones-Drew is as reliable as it comes. In each of the past three seasons, he’s carried the football at least 299 times and gained more than 1,600 total yards. He’s also averaged 11.3 touchdowns per year since 2009, a remarkable feat when you consider he’s tied to such a low-yield offense. MJD has caught at least 40 passes in five of his six NFL seasons, so there’s no reason to downgrade him in PPR formats. It’s easy to forget, but Jones-Drew entered the 2011 season dogged by questions about his surgically repaired knee and competition from backup Rashad Jennings. Last August, he actually called out “fantasy football gurus who’ve never stepped foot on the field,” obviously feeling disrespected. On behalf of the guru community: no mas. You win, MJD.
5. RYAN MATHEWS
TEAM: San Diego HT: 6-0 WT: 218 AGE: 24
COLLEGE: Fresno State NFL SEASONS: 2
STATISTICS
RUSHING RECEIVING
YR TM G ATT YDS AVG YD/G TD REC YDS AVG TD
’10 SD 12 158 678 4.3 56.5 7 22 145 6.6 0
’11 SD 14 222 1091 4.9 77.9 6 50 455 9.1 0
SCOUTING NOTES: Strong, downhill runner … Hits the inside holes with burst and authority and cranks it up a gear at the second level … Routinely gets extra yards after contact … Lacks the elusiveness to be effective in space … Solid receiver out of the backfield.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: Mathews finished seventh at his position last season in total fantasy scoring, an impressive feat for a guy who played 14 games and shared the backfield workload with Mike Tolbert. Despite Mathews’ usual medley of health concerns — he has a long, complicated medical history, dating back to his college days — the second-year back still gained 1,546 total yards on 272 touches, plus he crossed the goal line six times. He’s a legit talent, and he won’t have to contend with Tolbert in 2012. The Chargers have added bulldozing RB Le’Ron McClain to the backfield mix, but he’s not a serious threat to take over Tolbert’s full workload. McClain hasn’t caught more than 21 passes in any of his five seasons; Tolbert hauled in 54 for 433 yards in 2011. Four San Diego backs combined to catch 123 balls last year, so Mathews has a shot to be a PPR animal.
FANTASY SPIN: Yes, there’s a pretty clear drop-off from the No. 4 running back on draft boards to No. 5. In between those spots on draft day, you’ll find that a big group of elite receivers and QBs will likely be selected. But if Mathews is still available at the back end of the first round, pounce. Get this guy. If he can just give us 14 or 15 healthy-ish games, he’ll be a phenomenal fantasy asset. He’s a scary weapon in the passing game, and Philip Rivers clearly isn’t afraid to use him. There’s little doubt McClain will poach a few inside-the-5 carries, but Mathews is positioned for a monster season in terms of scrimmage yards. He’ll get all the work he can handle, and he’s tied to a still-dangerous offense. Don’t be afraid to invest.
6. CHRIS JOHNSON
TEAM: Tennessee HT: 5-11 WT: 191 AGE: 26
COLLEGE: East Carolina NFL SEASONS: 4
STATISTICS
RUSHING RECEIVING
YR TM G ATT YDS AVG YD/G TD REC YDS AVG TD
’09 TEN 16 358 2006 5.6 125.4 14 50 503 10.1 2
’10 TEN 16 316 1364 4.3 85.3 11 44 245 5.6 1
’11 TEN 16 262 1047 4.0 65.4 4 57 418 7.3 0
SCOUTING NOTES: Scary fast … Instant acceleration … Features the ability to hit an inside crease and explode, but is most dangerous on the sweeps and stretches … Possesses ankle-breaking elusiveness in space … Lacks the size/strength to move the pile … Can run downfield routes out of the slot.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: Statistically speaking, Johnson was worthless last season. There were really no highlights, no signature performances. Even when he had a decent game, you were left wondering what the 2009 version of CJ would have done. Johnson still managed to rush for 1,047 yards on 262 carries — good for a 4.0 YPC average, if you round up — and caught 57 passes for 418 yards. So it would be inaccurate to say that he was totally useless. But when your first-round pick scores just four touchdowns, it’s clearly a problem. The widespread assumption is that Johnson’s protracted preseason holdout was the reason for his disappointing 2011 showing. It’s worth noting that he averaged 2.8 yards per carry through Week 8, and then improved substantially in the second half.
FANTASY SPIN: You get one mulligan, CJ2K. Make it count. Now that Johnson’s contract situation is settled and he’s spent a full offseason working in Mike Munchak’s offense, you’d like to think that he could regain his old explosiveness. He’s only 26, even though he’s put some mileage on his tires. The Titans’ receiving corps should be greatly improved with the return of Kenny Britt and the addition of Kendall Wright, so opposing defenses may not have the luxury of stacking the line to stop CJ. And, based on last season’s tape, they might not feel the need to do it anyway.
7. ADRIAN PETERSON
TEAM: Minnesota HT: 6-1 WT: 217 AGE: 27
COLLEGE: Oklahoma NFL SEASONS: 5
STATISTICS
RUSHING RECEIVING
YR TM G ATT YDS AVG YD/G TD REC YDS AVG TD
’09 MIN 16 314 1383 4.4 86.4 18 43 436 10.1 0
’10 MIN 15 283 1298 4.6 86.5 12 36 341 9.5 1
’11 MIN 12 208 970 4.7 80.8 12 18 139 7.7 1
SCOUTING NOTES: Home-run hitter when healthy … Attacks the inside holes and cutback lanes at full throttle … Complements his impressive speed and athleticism with excellent strength and power … Can run through tackles as well as elude them … Finishes his runs … Lacks polished receiving skills, but does fine on the check-downs.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: The first five seasons of Peterson’s NFL career have been Hall of Fame-quality, loaded with preposterous highlights. Over 73 games, All Day has averaged 92.5 rushing yards per week and 4.8 per carry. He has never failed to reach double-digit touchdowns in any season, even in losing years for the Vikings, like 2010 and 2011. The only flaw we ever identified in this man’s game — a propensity to fumble — has been fully corrected; over the past two seasons, Peterson has coughed up the football one time. He’s never slipped outside the top six at his position in per-game fantasy scoring. Basically, there are no holes in Peterson’s game from a fantasy perspective (althoughMinnesotahas never targeted him through the air as much as we’d like. His career-high in receptions is just 43). Entering 2012, the big concern is the health of his left knee, as he recovers from major surgery (ACL, MCL, meniscus).
FANTASY SPIN: Peterson wrecked his knee in Week 16 last season, so the rehab process really needs to proceed without any speed bumps if he’s going to be ready for the 2012 opener. We’d hate to bet against an athlete of this caliber, especially when he’s clearly determined to take the field in September. Peterson was already beating teammates in sprints during offseason workouts in April, so the early recovery news was incredibly positive. If there were no questions about his health, Peterson would have ranked among the top five overall fantasy options for 2012. Even with the current level of uncertainty, you can’t let him slip too far. Remember, no fantasy league decides its championship in the first month of the season; you’ll need a healthy Peterson in Weeks 13-16 more than you’ll need him in Weeks 1-4.
8. AARON RODGERS
TEAM: Green Bay HT: 6-2 WT: 225 AGE: 28
COLLEGE: California NFL SEASONS: 7
STATISTICS
PASSING RUSHING
YR TM G ATT CMP PCT YDS TD INT ATT YDS TD
’09 GB 16 541 350 64.7 4434 30 7 58 316 5
’10 GB 15 475 312 65.7 3922 28 11 64 356 4
’11 GB 15 502 343 68.3 4643 45 6 60 257 3
SCOUTING NOTES: Confident leader … Combines a strong arm and sound mechanics with a thorough understanding of the offense … Reads defenses decisively; gets the ball out quickly and makes all the passes — throws accurately on the move and from a variety of angles … Shows the mobility to run for first downs when plays break down.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: Although he was far from the busiest quarterback (15 players threw more passes last year), his efficiency was off the charts in 2011. He led the league in touchdown percentage and YPA, and his 122.5 rating set a new NFL record. He had three TD passes or more in a ridiculous 10 games, and he never threw more than one interception in any start. Rodgers did a little less running than in previous seasons, but his 257 scrambling yards still ranked fourth at the position.
FANTASY SPIN: Rodgers will have to make do without departed offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, but otherwise the cast of characters is the same in Green Bay. Rodgers has missed just one start to injury over his four years as a regular. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Saints entering 2012, the Packers have the most bankable passing game in the land — with Rodgers the elite triggerman. He should be the first quarterback selected in your league, and you can consider him as a first-round pick (a new theme at the position).
9. CALVIN JOHNSON
TEAM: Detroit HT: 6-5 WT: 236 AGE: 26
COLLEGE: Georgia Tech NFL SEASONS: 5
STATISTICS
YR TM G REC YDS AVG Y/G LNG TD
’09 DET 14 67 984 14.7 70.3 75 5
’10 DET 16 77 1120 14.5 70.0 87 12
’11 DET 16 96 1681 17.5 105.1 73 16
SCOUTING NOTES: The most physically dominant receiver in the game … Possesses elite size, speed, body control and hand-eye coordination … Routinely breaks down cushion and kicks into second gear for big catches downfield … Produces prolific numbers despite being the primary focus of defensive game plans.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: A full season of health went a long way for Megatron, as he set career highs in every fantasy-relevant counting stat in 2011. The Lions pumped the ball to Johnson whenever possible — he was third in the league in targets (157) and tied for first in red-zone targets (seven). There was an element of streakiness to his game — he began the year with four straight two-score games and he went on a 36-781-6 barrage over his last four starts (including the playoff loss). But he also had a five-game segment in the middle of the year where he managed just 317 yards. Johnson is one of those players who can score from anywhere on the field: four of his TDs came from outside the 50.
FANTASY SPIN: You don’t believe in the Madden Jinx, do you? Johnson has proven to be the NFL’s top receiver by a considerable margin, and he has a star QB pitching him the pig. No defense has a true answer for Johnson — note the score he had inDallas where he beat triple-coverage — so if he stays healthy again, the pinball numbers will follow.
10. DARREN McFADDEN
TEAM: Oakland HT: 6-2 WT: 210 AGE: 25
COLLEGE: Arkansas NFL SEASONS: 4
STATISTICS
RUSHING RECEIVING
YR TM G ATT YDS AVG YD/G TD REC YDS AVG TD
’09 OAK 12 104 357 3.4 29.8 1 21 245 11.7 0
’10 OAK 13 223 1157 5.2 89.0 7 47 507 10.8 3
’11 OAK 7 113 614 5.4 87.7 4 19 154 8.1 1
SCOUTING NOTES: Slasher with an upright, narrow-based running style … Features very good speed and quickness inside and outside … Possesses nice moves in the open field for a taller back … Lacks the pad level and low strength to consistently run through tackles, but bounces off some higher hits.
STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS: On a per-game basis, few running backs have more fantasy value than McFadden. The problem is that he’s never played more than 13 games in any NFL season, and he appeared in a career-low seven last year due to a Lisfranc injury. But again: when he plays, he’s fantastic. He’s topped 100 scrimmage yards in 14 of the 20 games in which he’s appeared since 2010. He was the No. 7 per-game scorer at running back last season and No. 2 the year before. McFadden has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over the past two seasons; he’s caught 3.3 passes per game, and he’s scored 15 touchdowns.
FANTASY SPIN: If McFadden ever plays a full 16-game season, watch out. But c’mon, who are we kidding? At this stage, no one expects an injury-free campaign. We’d settle for 12-13 weeks of production, with a clean bill of health for the fantasy playoffs. When this guy is right, he’s a fun player to watch. Now that Michael Bush is out of town, you can assume that McFadden will be the every-down featured back inOakland, with an unobstructed path to a huge fantasy line. It’s tempting to suggest that you should toss his name on the trade block if he begins the season with another binge, but you’d also hate to miss out on his first healthy season. Bottom line: When you draft McFadden, you’re getting a very high ceiling and a disastrous floor.