When the NBA Players Association rejected the idea of smoothing in the new television revenue beginning this summer, it was automatically bad news for the free agent class of 2015. Free agents this summer, unless they elect to sign one-year deals, will miss out on the largest spending spree in league history next July.
Still, the exploding revenue and record ratings for the NBA Finals (a record 20 million people nightly watched the Golden State Warriors beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in six games) proves the game is thriving even while two of its marquee franchises — the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks — are crumbling.
“The league is doing incredibly well,” commissioner Adam Silver said during the Finals. “The players are doing really well. Popularity is at an all-time high.”
There remain challenges, however. Another round of labor negotiations lingers, while injuries to star players are soaring at an alarming rate. To that end, Silver is making it his goal to significantly reduce the amount of times teams will play back-to-backs next season, with the goal being to eliminate them completely by 2016-17.
As for this year’s crop of free agents, most are either restricted and expected to remain with their current teams (Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green) or unrestricted yet still expected to stay put (LeBron James, Marc Gasol).
Both the Knicks and Lakers have top-five picks in this draft and millions to spend in free agency. Who will take their money? History shows NBA summers are never, ever boring.
Top 10 free agents
1. F LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
He will top the list every year he can opt out, but absolutely no one believes he could leave Cleveland again — certainly not now.
2. F LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
Perhaps the most likely of anyone on this list to depart for a new team; Aldridge is from Texas and has mentioned the Spurs to other players in the league.
3. C Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
Early indications are Gasol is headed back to Memphis.
4. F Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
Love maintained since last summer’s trade he is committed to Cleveland long term, yet front office executives around the league continue to believe he could leave.
5. G Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Another restricted free agent with little chance of leaving his current team, but it is going to cost the Bulls a lot more than the $11 million a year he rejected last fall.
6. F Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
A restricted free agent who might not sign his deal right away. His cap hold on the Spurs’ books is less than what he ultimately will get, which could free up money for the Spurs to make moves elsewhere.
7. C DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
The unrestricted free agent isn’t a lock to return to the Clippers, but coach Doc Rivers is already on record saying Los Angeles will offer him a max contract, which is nearly $30 million more than another team can offer.
8. G Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
The divide between Wade and Pat Riley seems real. Wade referred to his days with the Heat in the past tense during his time as an analyst for the Finals.
9. F Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
G Tony Parker believes Duncan will return, but the big man has given no indication yet whether he will retire or come back for a 19th season in San Antonio.
10. F Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
The former second-round pick is expected to sign a max deal somewhere, most likely with the Warriors after he earned less than $1 million while playing a key role on Golden State’s championship team.
Top 5 summertime storylines
1. Big cities, big problems
Two of the league’s signature teams, the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers, will get to work putting the wheels back on their franchises after each endured its worst season in history. The Lakers enter the summer with the second overall pick and perhaps as much as $24 million in cap space to pursue premier free agents such as F Kevin Love, a former UCLA star, or F LaMarcus Aldridge. The Knicks, meanwhile, pick fourth overall and could have as much as $27 million in cap space to insert talent around F Carmelo Anthony.
2. LeBron-a-thon
It just wouldn’t be an NBA summer without LeDrama. Indeed, F LeBron James is expected to become a free agent again this July, although the outcome this time seems predetermined: He is remaining in Cleveland. But who is staying with him? Love adamantly maintained since last summer he would be in Cleveland long term, but no one around the league seems to believe him. The Cavs gave up a historic haul to land Love, including the No. 1 overall pick last summer, F Andrew Wiggins, who appears headed for stardom. Losing Love for nothing after just one season would make it arguably the worst trade in league history.
3. Spurs 2.0
The San Antonio Spurs enter the summer in a fascinating predicament. They only have five guaranteed contracts on the books, but they don’t yet know whether F Tim Duncan and G Manu Ginobili will return for another season. The Spurs theoretically could clear enough cap space to sign a marquee free agent such as Aldridge or C Marc Gasol, then re-sign F Kawhi Leonard to a huge extension and create a new Big Three that also includes G Tony Parker.
4. Big men, small league
The top two prospects in the draft are arguably both 6-foot-11 centers (Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns and Duke’s Jahlil Okafor), yet the league just concluded an NBA Finals in which the tallest player on the floor was often only 6-9. The NBA is getting smaller and smaller, with a premium placed on athletic wings who can space the floor and shoot. Teams are setting records for 3-pointers shot in a season, which begs the question: How do young bigs such as Towns, Okafor and (if he can ever get healthy) Joel Embiid actually fit in?
5. Heat wave
There is a Cold War brewing on South Beach between Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat. Each passing day makes it seem a little more likely the face of the Heat franchise could be ready to move on. Wade certainly has his health issues, but he could cash in on a big payday with the Knicks and play alongside F Carmelo Anthony. He immediately would become the face of a franchise for an already excellent team like the Atlanta Hawks, or he could guide a young team like the Milwaukee Bucks — remember he played at Marquette — into the Eastern Conference elite. If Wade and the Heat can patch up their differences, however, a potential starting five of G Goran Dragic, Wade, F Luol Deng, F Chris Bosh and C Hassan Whiteside could make for a memorable postseason series against one of Wade’s former teammates now in Cleveland.