GAME OF THE WEEK
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA
The time: 8:10 P.M., EST, Saturday
The line: Eagles by 2-1/2
The story: Make it the weather. It’s bad enough that New Orleans hits the road in the playoffs, where the Saints are 0-3 under Sean Payton. But the temperature for this one is expected to be in the low-20s, and that’s a big problem for the Saints. It’s not just a hostile environment they must overcome; it’s a numbing cold, too.
That’s a tough combination to conquer, and the Saints didn’t conquer much of anything on the road this season. They were 3-5 there, dropping their last three and scoring an average of 16 points fewer than at home. Worse, star quarterback Drew Brees wasn’t the same, with 27 TDs and three interceptions in New Orleans and 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the road.
The Saints have enough trouble just playing away from the Superdome, but playing it in a deep freeze? Good luck. Granted, Brees has the playoff experience that Nick Foles does not, but Foles may not have to win this game. Given the conditions, defense and running the ball will be critical, and Philadelphia not only has the league’s best rusher in LeSean McCoy, it has its best running attack, too.
Score one for the home team. The Eagles also commit few mistakes, unlike last season when they tied for the league lead with 37. They cut that total in half this season, with 19, which is another reason to like them here.
Then there’s the home-field advantage, and while Philadelphia dropped 10 straight at the Linc between last year and this, they won their last four. So they’re hot, with seven wins in their last eight starts, and New Orleans dropped three of its last five. Draw your own conclusions. Oddsmakers have. They like the Eagles.
Something to consider: The Saints averaged 13.2 points per game in their last four road stars, with Brees throwing five touchdowns and four interceptions. They’ve won one road game since Oct. 6.
THREE OTHERS YOU WON’T MISS
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS
The time: 4:35 p.m., EST, Saturday
The line: Colts by 2
The story: These two met a couple of weeks ago in Arrowhead Stadium, and it wasn’t close. The Colts were never threatened in a 23-7 victory, which makes you wonder: If Kansas City wasn’t competitive at home, what chance does it have here? Answer: At least a modest one. That’s because the Chiefs are better on the road than they are at home, winning six of their first seven before wheeling out the second-stringers last week in San Diego.
Kansas City’s big concern is its pass rush. It hasn’t had one for the second half of the season. Where the Chiefs produced 36 sacks the first eight games, they had 11 on the back end, and that’s a problem. So is this: Linebacker Tamba Hali hasn’t practiced all week because of a sore knee. But linebacker Justin Houston is set to return after four weeks away, and maybe, just maybe, that helps with pressure on Andrew Luck.
If the Chiefs are to pull the upset, they must force Luck into mistakes and incompletions. That didn’t happen when they met last month. Instead, it was the Chiefs who screwed up, committing four turnovers, holding the ball for no more than six minutes in any quarter and going three-and-out on five of their 11 possessions. Taking care of the football, pressuring Luck and getting Jamaal Charles rolling to empty the clock are critical to Kansas City’s chances. If they fail, their offseason starts Sunday.
Something to consider: The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game since Jan. 16, 1994, when Joe Montana was their quarterback. They’re also 0-3 vs. Indianapolis in the postseason.
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI
The time: 1:05 p.m., EST, Sunday
The line: Bengals by 7
The story: Weather will be a concern here, too, with temperatures forecast to be at or near freezing at kickoff, and rain, sleet or snow a possibility. That’s supposed to handicap the team from southern California, except in San Diego’s only two starts this season where temperatures were below 40 degrees they won. It happened in Denver, and it happened in Kansas City.
Nevertheless, the Bengals are the prohibitive favorite, and it’s easy to see why: 1) They’re home, where they haven’t lost this season, the first time that has happened since 1988; 2) San Diego running back Ryan Mathews is hobbled by a sore ankle and didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday; 3) the Bengals scored 40 or more points in four of their last five home starts and 4) they beat the Chargers last month in San Diego, stuffing them 17-10 when they forced three turnovers.
So this one isn’t supposed to be close, except we’re forgetting one thing: These are the Bengals, people. They’re not only 0-4 in the playoffs under Marvin Lewis, they haven’t won a playoff game, period, since 1991. Plus, quarterback Andy Dalton is 0-2 in the postseason, with no touchdowns, four interceptions and a passer rating of 48.6 … which is another way of saying he has stunk.
The pressure here isn’t on San Diego. The Chargers, who won their last four, are lucky to be here, and they know it. So they’re playing with house money. But the Bengals? They have some familiar ghosts to vanquish.
Something to consider: The Bengals have a 73.9 touchdown percentage inside opponents’ 20, the second-best record in the NFL.
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY
The time: 4:40 p.m., EST, Sunday
The line: 49ers by 3
The story: These two should be on a first-name basis by now. They’ve met three times in the past year-and-a-half, with San Francisco winning all three — including a rout in last year’s playoffs. Of course, that was in San Francisco where the weather was considerably warmer than it will be here. Reports call for temperatures near zero and wind chills near minus-20, which is supposed to handicap the visitors … only I’d be careful there.
Cold weather usually favors clubs that play better defense or run the ball, and San Francisco scores in both departments. Its defense is vastly superior to Green Bay, playing without pass rusher Clay Matthews again, and its running game ranked third in the league — four places higher than the surprising Packers. But San Francisco is the only team in the league not to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, and keep that in mind. The 49ers are 9-0 under Jim Harbaugh when they outrush opponents.
Still, it’s defense that should determine the outcome, and all I know about Green Bay is that it hasn’t stopped Colin Kaepernick yet … running or throwing. Plus, the Packers have rookie Andy Mulumba stepping in for Matthews, and rookies make mistakes the 49ers can exploit. Having Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb back is a relief for Green Bay’s pass attack, but the elements here don’t favor passing; they favor defense, and Green Bay’s unit has holes the size of Lake Michigan.
Maybe that’s why Packers fans are staying home. There were thousands of unsold tickets this week, and tell me the last time you remember a playoff game at Lambeau Field that had trouble selling out. Granted, it will be frigid, but these fans are inured to the cold. Sub-freezing temperatures never kept them away. Now, the 49ers will? That might tell you something about the home team’s chances.
Something to consider: The 49ers had 129 points off turnovers in 2013, their third-highest total since 1986.
FIVE GUYS IT’S GOOD TO BE
–1. San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick. He’s 2-0 vs. Green Bay, with five touchdowns, one interception and a passer rating of 112.4. Plus, he has run for 220 yards in three games (one of which he didn’t start) and two more TDs, including a league-record 181 yards rushing in last year’s playoffs.
–2. Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith. He’s 6-1 on the road this season, with 11 touchdowns, one interception and a passer rating of 94.6. He’s also 1-1 in the playoffs.
–3. Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck. He’s 2-0 vs. the Chiefs and 13-3 at home.
–4. Green Bay cornerback Sam Shields. He has four interceptions in his last five games and one each in the past two, including a 52-yard return for a touchdown.
–5. San Francisco tight end Vernon Davis. He has 100 yards or more in catches in four of five playoff games.
BELIEVE IT … OR DON’T
–1. Wild-card winners have won nine Super Bowls, including the last three, and seven of the last eight NFL championship games featured at least one team from Wild-Card Weekend.
–2. Green Bay’s 16-4 home playoff record is the best in the NFL.
–3. New Orleans lost five of its last six road games this season and is 0-5 all time on the road in the playoffs. Since 2006, they’re 2-7 outdoors when the temperature is 40 degrees or lower … which it will be in Philadelphia on Saturday.
–4. Since winning Super Bowl IV, Kansas City is 3-12 in the playoffs, and its kickers aren’t much better. They’re 12 of 25 on field-goal attempts. But since last winning a postseason game in 1994, the Chiefs are 0-6 in the playoffs, with their kickers going 3-for-9 in field-goal tries.
–5. Kansas City, Carolina and San Francisco were the only teams that didn’t allow a defensive touchdown this season.
–6. Indianapolis this year beat four teams (Denver, Seattle, San Francisco and Kansas City) with at least 11 wins each.
–7 The Chiefs scored 147 points off turnovers, the most in the NFL.
–8. Philadelphia’s Nick Foles had a fourth-quarter passer rating of 127.8, highest in the league.
–9. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is the first quarterback in league history with five consecutive ratings of 100 or better.
–10. San Francisco’s Anquan Boldin led the league with 33 third-down catches and 529 third-down yards.
TEN NUMBERS THAT MAY MEAN SOMETHING
–1-4 — Andy Reid vs. Indianapolis
–67 — Drew Brees’ playoff completion percentage, highest in NFL history
–7 — Darren Sproles’ touchdowns in eight playoff games
–8 — Times the 49ers scored 30 or more points
–10 — Game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime by Andrew Luck in his first two years
–13-0 — San Francisco’s record when Colin Kaepernick has a rating of 100 or better
–14.24 — Nick Foles’ average yards per completion, best in the NFL
–21 — Combined TDs for the Bengals’ A.J. Green and Marvin Jones
–30-9-1 — Alex Smith’s record as a starter
–48 — Adam Vinatieri playoff field goals, most in NFL history
— Clark Judge, a Senior NFL Writer for The Sports Xchange, has covered pro football since 1982 and is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Selection Committee.