The Sports Xchange breaks down the keys to all four Divisional Playoff games, including pivotal matchups, players to watch, and predictions on which four teams will be left standing come Sunday night.
Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. – TV: CBS
*TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
*Keys to the game: Kansas City brings its 11-game winning streak and a formula for winning in any environment to New England. The Chiefs led the league in turnover margin and can make the argument their front seven is the best in the NFL, with the ability to harass Patriots QB Tom Brady from multiple angles and speed in the middle of the field — in the form of FS Eric Berry and ILB Derrick Johnson — to track Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski.
There are a few big chips that would work against the Chiefs — the offense is not built for a high-scoring game and their best playmaker, WR Jeremy Maclin, has what coach Andy Reid described as a “mild” high ankle sprain. QB Alex Smith’s mobility should aid the Chiefs’ offense, especially if power back Spencer Ware (ankle) is limited, but the Chiefs must take a few chances down the field to keep the Patriots guessing.
That said, the Chiefs are finding great success out of a three-tight end set that adds blocking beef in the read-option game and serves to isolate TE Travis Kelce as a receiver.
Attrition is a factor for the Patriots, too, especially on the offensive line and a running back, where the toll of injuries has had an impact for most of the second half of the season. Brady gets his favorite target, WR Julian Edelman, back from a foot injury for the first time since Nov. 15 and won’t be shy about steering the ball toward risk-taking rookie CB Marcus Peters. While he has eight interceptions and made the Pro Bowl, Peters gave up two big plays at Houston last week and has allowed seven touchdown passes.
Tempo and four-wide receiver spread sets have been effective tools for Brady and the offense against strong 3-4 defenses this season, and without a true lead back to control the clock, they’ll likely go for the upper hand by dictating the Chiefs use nickel personnel.
*Matchup to watch – Patriots RT Marcus Cannon vs. Chiefs LB Justin Houston: Sebastian Vollmer is expected to return and start at left tackle. Cannon’s pass protection is not his strength and Houston’s speed gives him a major advantage. However, Houston was shaky last week at Houston in his first game back from a knee injury and playing with a bulky brace.
*Player spotlight – Chiefs C Mitch Morse: The starter missed last week’s game with a concussion and remained in the head injury protocol at midweek. If he can’t go, the Chiefs confess there are depth and tempo concerns against the Patriots’ solid three-DT rotation inside.
*Fast facts: This is Smith’s fifth playoff start and Brady’s 30th. … The Chiefs last won in Foxborough in 1990. … The Patriots were 9-0 with Edelman during the regular season, 3-4 without him. … Reid was coach of the Philadelphia Eagles in a Super Bowl XXXIX loss to Bill Belichick and the Patriots in 2005. … A win sends the Patriots to the conference championship game for the fifth consecutive season. Only the Raiders (1973-77) have accomplished that feat.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Short of a perfect game by the Chiefs’ well-respected defense, Kansas City needs big plays and probably a special teams break or two to escape for a possible home game in the AFC title game. Rested and prepared, the Patriots stay true to their reputation with a late drive to advance.
*Our pick: Patriots 23-20.
–Jeff Reynolds
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-3)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz. – TV: NBC
*TV announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
*Keys to the game: Any confidence the fifth-seeded Packers picked up from beating Washington in the wild-card round could be tempered reviewing film of the Week 16 whipping at Arizona in which QB Aaron Rodgers was roughed up.
Much of their swagger rests on the status of LT David Bakhtiari, who hasn’t played in a month, as the Packers are desperate to get their starting front five on the field together for the first time in eight games to keep Rodgers upright. He was hit 17 times in the past three games with three different starting offensive line combos.
A heavy dose of RBs Eddie Lacy and James Starks is likely to be part of the scripted first 15 plays as the Packers attempt to establish the offensive line. But if that bid goes south, the game will fall squarely on Rodgers, who said this week he plans to “throw caution to the wind.”
That approach from opponents trying to keep pace with the NFL’s No. 2-ranked pass offense became all too common, and the Cardinals’ defense preyed on the pass-only attacks during the regular season.
The Packers’ defense figures to stay fast and furious with its pass rush after knocking around Redskins QB Kirk Cousins for six sacks last weekend. Green Bay didn’t disrupt the Cardinals’ Carson Palmer much in the earlier meeting, hitting the 36-year-old only four times and sacking him twice. Getting top CB Sam Shields back after a four-game absence because of a concussion would be huge in allowing Green Bay to be aggressive attacking Palmer from all angles against a suspect offensive line and take away his effective quick release for getting the football to his playmaking receivers.
The Packers, though, can’t let their guard down against the run after they gave up a cumulative 121 rushing yards to the Cardinals last month.
*Matchup to watch – Cardinals RB David Johnson vs. Packers ILB Jake Ryan: The Packers will adjust their game plan but he won this matchup of rookies Week 16. Ryan had trouble covering Johnson, who had 88 yards on three catches in the first half.
*Player spotlight – Packers WR Jared Abbrederis: He’ll take most of the snaps injured WR Davante Adams (knee) cannot this week, as he did most of the second half at Washington. Rodgers said he expects Abbrederis, a 2014 fifth-round pick, to be more than just a body in the formation.
“You look at the tape, and he’s open a lot of times even if the ball doesn’t go his way. So, we’ve got to find ways to put him in position to do what he does best and find a way to get him the ball,” Rodgers said.
*Fast facts: The Packers’ 11 road playoff wins is the most all-time. Baltimore is second with 10. … Packers PK Mason Crosby has made 18 consecutive field goals on the road. His long this season was 48 yards. … Cardinals PK Chandler Catanzaro missed three extra points in the final six regular-season games. … Palmer is 0-2 in his career in the playoffs.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Arizona will stack the box and challenge Aaron Rodgers to be perfectly precise on every single throw. He has aced this type of test before, but Arizona has home field and a hot hand of its own with QB Carson Palmer and a dynamic weapon in rookie RB David Johnson to advance to the NFC title game.
*Our pick: Cardinals 27-23.
–Jeff Reynolds
Seattle Seahawks (11-6) at Carolina Panthers (15-1)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte – TV: FOX
*TV announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Chris Myers
*Keys to the game: The Panthers engineered a pair of 80-yard scoring drives on the league’s top-ranked defense when Carolina stormed back from a 13-point second-half deficit to stun the Seahawks in Seattle, 27-23 on Oct. 18. There have been several key changes to personnel on both sides of the ball, but these are opponents who know each other well as they play for the sixth time in the past four seasons and the third time in 13 months.
Seattle’s offense struggled to get untracked in the severe cold in Minnesota last week, and it’s the Panthers’ stout front four that is of primary concern this Sunday. The Seahawks’ offensive line will be physically overmatched, and the availability of RB Marshawn Lynch might not be known until game time. Christine Michael has been steady since Thomas Rawls was lost for the season, but the Seahawks do miss Lynch’s ability to move the pile even when holes aren’t there.
This is a far different offense than Carolina face in the regular season. Seattle is spreading the field more, allowing QB Russell Wilson to get the ball out his hands quickly and letting his receivers make plays against a Panthers secondary that lacks impact players outside of CB Josh Norman. TE Jimmy Graham led the Seahawks with eight catches for 140 yards in the first meeting. He’s out, but Luke Willson is expected to return from a concussion and is a solid receiving threat over the seam.
Panthers QB Cam Newton recovered from a poor first half to dissect the Legion of Boom in Seattle. TE Greg Olsen caught seven passes for 131 yards and the game-winning 32-yard touchdown on a busted coverage – one of a slew the Seahawks have suffered against tight ends this season. RB Jonathan Stewart returns from a foot injury. He managed only 3.9 yards per carry in the first meeting, but combined with Newton to rush for three touchdowns. Carolina will continue to hammer away on the ground, using Stewart and Newton to steadily whittle away and stay out of dangerous long passing situations.
*Matchup to watch – Seahawks SS Kam Chancellor vs. Olsen: Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Olsen is every bit the threat of Rob Gronkowski – lofty praise, but the Seahawks have been regularly victimized by Olsen in recent years. Chancellor has struggled in coverage against tight ends all season, including a pass interference penalty and huge missed tackle on Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph on the final drive last week. OLB K.J. Wright could figure into the coverage game plan more. He was forced to start in the middle in the first meeting with Bobby Wagner out.
*Player spotlight – Panthers CB Robert McClain: With Bene Benwikere and Charles Tillman out for the season, the overlooked concern with Carolina is McClain and Cortland Finnegan, midseason pickups who will be targeted often by the Seahawks’ heavy use of three-wide sets featuring Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockette.
*Fast facts: The Seahawks have won two previous playoff meetings, both in Seattle. … Wilson’s 53 overall wins, 47 regular-season wins and seven playoff wins are the most in NFL history by a quarterback through four seasons. … Newton is the first player in NFL history with 30-plus touchdown passes (35) and 10-plus rushing touchdowns (10) in a season.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
All five of the recent meetings have been decided late, and there is no reason to believe this one will be any different. While the Seahawks are coming off a rigorous wild card trip to Minnesota and traveling cross country, the Panthers are rested and QB Cam Newton has shown the ability to make critical plays with the game on the line this season.
*Our pick: Panthers 27-24.
–Derek Harper
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver – TV: CBS
*TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
*Keys to the game: The Steelers’ high-octane offense arrives in Denver minus two top threats, with WR Antonio Brown (concussion) and RB De’Angelo Williams ruled out Friday. QB Ben Roethlisberger is likely to try to play through a sprained throwing shoulder. A major role now awaits Markus Wheaton, who had 44 receptions and averaged 17 yards per catch in the regular season.
All three of Pittsburgh’s skill position stars were at full strength when the Steelers overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Broncos, 34-27, at home on Dec. 20. Denver was also without Ss T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart as Big Ben sliced and diced the Broncos’ self-proclaimed “no-fly zone” for 380 yards and three touchdowns. He also threw a pair of picks, which has been a recurring theme. While Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman combined for 183 yards from scrimmage at Cincinnati last week, both backs lack the singular versatility and experience Williams brings to the backfield – especially with Roethlisberger ailing and facing a refreshed Denver defense.
The other difference of note from last month’s meeting? Peyton Manning will be behind center for the Broncos in a much-debated switch from Brock Osweiler, who threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers. He helped build a 27-10 lead, but Denver was also shut out in the second half. Coach Gary Kubiak is gambling that Manning’s vast experience pays off against coordinator Keith Butler’s 3-4 scheme with varying blitz packages. Osweiler was sacked twice and hit five times by the Steelers and generally was willing to take a sack to avoid a turnover. What Manning lacks in arm strength he certainly makes up for in quick decision making.
The risk is that Manning is playing behind an offensive line that struggles mightily in pass protection at times. Denver’s running backs managed just 62 yards on 18 carries, a 3.4-yard average, in the first meeting. If Pittsburgh is able to reprise that type of run defense, Manning will be hard pressed to push the ball vertically with limited arm strength and mobility behind shoddy pass protection.
*Matchup to watch – Steelers ILB Ryan Shazier vs. Broncos offensive line: Shazier is coming off a breakthrough game in which he racked up 13 tackles and a pair of forced fumbles at Cincinnati. Healthy for a change, Shazier’s speed is a serious threat to the Broncos, who alternated struggling Michael Schofield and journeyman Tyler Polumbus at right tackle in Week 17. Shazier plays next to LOLB Ryan Moats, who had a quiet night with one tackle and one pass defensed in the regular-season meeting.
*Player spotlight – Broncos LG Max Garcia: Denver is one of the rare teams that rotates starting linemen. Garcia has taken over the left guard job from Evan Mathis, but Mathis will log some snaps when Garcia moves to the right side to spell RG Louis Vasquez. All the maneuvering is only another indication the Broncos have serious issues controlling the trenches. Steelers NT Steve McLendon could play a huge role in negating the ground game and creating long passing downs.
*Fast facts: Roethlisberger is 8-0 in the postseason when he has a passer rating of at least 80.0. … The Broncos had an NFL-high five regular-season victories this season against playoff teams.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Teammates have acknowledged that Peyton Manning is more “amped up” this week, knowing this might be his final run – at least with the Broncos. The Steelers pose a serious threat, but they’re also an opponent missing two key stars coming to town off a physical showdown in Cincinnati. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about Manning, but at home and with a rested and talented defense, he comes up with enough to fight another week.
*Our pick: Broncos 30-26.
–Derek Harper.