Charlie Strong is expected to turn around Texas in a hurry. (Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY )
Unless you’re a follower of Arkansas State, you must be confident your new coach will last more than one season.
The Red Wolves will have their fourth coach in as many years in 2014 – former North Carolina offensive coordinator Blake Anderson – after Hugh Freeze (Mississippi), Gus Malzahn (Auburn) and Bryan Harsin (Boise State) left for other coaching positions after only one season.
At least Freeze, Malzahn and Harsin left on their accord and were not fired by their institution after only one season, as was the case with Ellis Johnson at Southern Miss after the 2012 season. Some coaches last only two years — like Charley Molnar at Massachusetts after the 2013 season and Colorado’s Jon Embree in 2012.
The 18 hires for the 2014 season should have the security of having at least four years to get their program to a competitive level nationally. That is not always the case, especially if the results are immediately poor.
That’s when the athletic director receives feedback from disgruntled boosters and recruiting is affected. No time frame precludes that from happening. It could happen before the first season is completed.
With that in mind, here are the top five new hires who better win right away in their first season:
1. Charlie Strong, Texas
Although Strong joins the Longhorns in a time of great need for the program, Texas followers will keep a close eye on immediate results. In the last four years under Mack Brown, Texas was only 30-21 overall and 18-17 in the Big 12. Strong will have that lack of production as an excuse for early struggles if they occur. Strong’s contract terms – a base of $5 million annually – puts added pressure on Strong to succeed from the start. Prominent booster Red McCombs and other Longhorn faithful have already voiced an opinion: The coach has no ties to Texas and is better suited as a coordinator. Anything less than a nine-win season, and Strong becomes a weak hire in eyes of many Texas followers.
2. Steve Sarkisian, USC
Sarkisian comes from conference rival Washington, a program he helped restore to respectability after the Huskies went 0-12 before his arrival in 2009. Washington, however, never finished higher than third in the conference standings under Sarkisian. The Huskies averaged 6.8 wins a season under Sarkisian. That kind of production translates into a firing at USC no matter the circumstances. Sarkisian will also be under the microscope at USC because he was a former young assistant to Pete Carroll, similar to Lane Kiffin, who was fired in less than four seasons with the Trojans. It’s a good thing for Sarkisian that Washington and USC do not play each other in 2014 or else that would be a must-win situation.
3. Chris Petersen, Washington
It seemed as though Chris Petersen had more job offers from high-profile programs than any other coach in the last few years. The Husky fans believe they received an upgrade with Petersen replacing Sarkisian. If that’s the case, Petersen needs to show immediately that he is more than a one-program coach. If the Huskies slip to less than seven victories in Petersen’s first season, fans might wonder if the program’s forward-steps are gone. Sarkisian had the reputation of “Sevin-Win Sark” because he had three consecutive years with seven victories before going 8-4 in his last season with Washington. The Huskies return seven starters on offense and defense, which gives Petersen a solid base of talent in his first season.
4. James Franklin, Penn State
Franklin’s immediate future is safe inasmuch as Penn State still has two years remaining with its NCAA bowl ban and reduction in scholarships. However, Franklin has a difficult act to follow in Bill O’Brien, who restored dignity to the program after the child sexual-abuse fiasco involving former longtime assistant Jerry Sandusky. Penn State managed to go a remarkable 15-9 overall and 10-6 in the Big Ten in O’Brien’s two seasons. If that kind of production drops off in 2014 under Franklin, folks will wonder why the new coach could not win when his predecessor was able to get the job done under more difficult circumstances.
5. Bobby Petrino, Louisville
In his earlier tenure with Louisville, Petrino coached the Cardinals to records of 11-1 in 2004 and 12-1 in 2006. Louisville is coming off consecutive seasons of 11-2 and 12-1 under Strong. With Petrino’s history of winning at Louisville and the healthy state of the program left by Strong, Petrino should win from the start. Although he must replace departing junior Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, Petrino has a tailor-made schedule for success in Louisville’s first ACC season with road games against Boston College, Syracuse and Virginia.
