QB Braxton Miller could be a big-time weapon in Urban Meyer's offense this fall. (Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE)
The uprising of Florida in 2012 does not include the Gators becoming SEC favorites after a 7-6 record last season. Florida will be competitive, but overtaking Georgia and South Carolina in the SEC East is too much to ask this season.
This ranking of greatest predicted conference turnarounds includes three teams from the state of Florida.
South Florida, Florida International and Central Florida should be among the top five programs to experience the greatest rebound within their respective conferences in 2012. The other two best turnaround stories of note will be Ohio State and Texas, two traditional powerhouses who again appear loaded and confident for runs at the top of the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively.
Central Florida hosts Florida International on Sept. 15. Although it does not have the allure of Florida vs. Florida State (Nov. 24) or Miami vs. Florida (in 2013), the showdown between the Knights and Bulls appears to be as important as those other non-conference games this season in the football-rich state.
1. South Florida
2011 conference finish: Tied for last place in the Big East with Syracuse with a 1-6 conference record and 5-7 overall.
2012 predicted conference finish: Second place.
Why such a turnaround?: The Bulls’ record from last year is a bit deceiving. They started the season 4-0 but finished with only one win in their last eight games. However, in that eight-game stretch, South Florida lost five games by six points or less. Four were only by three points, including a 30-27 loss to conference champion West Virginia in the last game of the season that eliminated the Bulls’ chances of playing in a bowl.
South Florida also has key returners on both sides of the ball, especially quarterback B.J. Daniels, a 22-year-old senior who is one of the best dual-threat players at his position in the country. He combined for 3,205 yards and 19 touchdowns with the run and pass. South Florida ranked No. 30 in total offense last season with 432.8 yards per game, while the defense – which returns seven starters – ranked a respectable 39th in total defense. The Big East is also less top heavy with West Virginia gone to the Big 12.
2. Ohio State
2011 conference finish: Fourth in the Leaders Division of the Big Ten with a 3-5 conference record and 6-7 overall.
2012 predicted conference finish: Second place in the Leaders Division.
Why such a turnaround? What is special about moving up only two spots in the division? The Buckeyes actually had the eighth-best conference record when combining the Big Ten’s Leaders and Legends divisions. Now it appears, with the hiring of Urban Meyer causing much excitement, that Ohio State will challenge Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State as the best team in the Big Ten despite the Buckeyes serving a one-year postseason ban by the NCAA.
The hiring of Meyer, a two-time national champion coach at Florida, has injected life into the program. Although the offensive line and receiving corps are mostly inexperienced, Meyer has a talented dual-threat quarterback in sophomore Braxton Miller to count on for his spread offense.
Defensively, the Buckeyes will be a chore for opponents. They return seven starters on defense, including three on the front line and all four in the backfield. Meyer has a rarity on his staff with his co-defensive coordinators Luke Fickell and Everett Withers leading their own FBS teams last year as interim head coaches. Fickell coached the Buckeyes and Withers coached North Carolina after Jim Tressel and Butch Davis were forced out.
3. Texas
2011 conference finish: Tied for sixth in the Big 12 with Texas A&M with a 4-5 conference record and 8-5 overall.
2012 predicted conference finish: Second place.
Why such a turnaround? The turnaround actually started last year as the Longhorns improved from 5-7 overall to 8-5 with a victory over Cal in the Holiday Bowl. Texas went from having the league’s second-to-worst conference record in 2010 to placing sixth in the 10-team league without departed Nebraska and Colorado last year. That’s still second-division material and falls well below the Longhorns’ standards. Four of Texas’ losses in the Big 12 last year were by less than 10 points, which means the Longhorns were competitive. The schedule this year is favorable with West Virginia and TCU having to play in Austin.
The Longhorns’ only major question mark is at quarterback, where sophomore David Ash is the starter but might have to platoon with junior Case McCoy. Texas is strong in the running game and on defense, two staples for a very successful season. Sophomore Malcolm Brown should top 1,000 yards rushing and defensive ends Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor are coming off a season in which they combined for 15 sacks and 35 tackles for loss.
4. Florida International
2011 conference finish: Fourth in the Sun Belt with a 5-3 conference record and 8-5 overall.
2012 predicted conference finish: First place.
Why such a turnaround? FIU, which is about to enter only its 11th season of football, is rising nationally. For the first time in the program’s history, the Panthers received votes in a preseason poll – three in the USA Today Coaches Top 25 poll. FIU returns 20 starters, including 10 on a defense that ranked 14th nationally in scoring defense in 2011.
Panthers coach Mario Cristobal, an offensive tackle when Miami won two national titles in 1989 and 1991, has to replace departed receiver T.Y. Hilton, who was selected in the third round of the NFL draft by Indianapolis. He must also groom sophomore quarterback Jake Medlock into a consistent starter. Cristobal is banking on Medlock being much more of a versatile dual-threat than his predecessor, Wesley Carroll. Defensively, the Panthers have senior end Tourek Williams (the preseason Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year) and senior linebacker Winston Fraser (a Butkus Award candidate and likely future pro).
5. Central Florida
2011 conference finish: Tied for fourth in the Conference USA East Division with Alabama-Birmingham with a 3-5 conference record and 5-7 overall.
2012 predicted conference finish: First place in the East Division.
Why such a turnaround? Although the program has a cloud over it — the NCAA banned the Knights from a bowl this season because of recruiting violations – Central Florida is looking very formidable. The Knights have appealed the NCAA’s ruling. Based on the timeline of the final ruling, the Knights may have to serve the ban in 2013 instead of this season. Head coach George O’Leary’s team lost six games last season by a touchdown or less. The offense, which ranked 40th nationally with 406.8 yards per game, is on solid ground with established starter Blake Bortles becoming the leader. Bortles is an accurate 6-foot-4, 221-pound pro-style quarterback. Storm Johnson, a transfer from Miami, should provide the Knights with a balanced attack.
Defensively, the Knights led Conference USA in rushing defense (108.8 yards per game), total defense (303.3) and scoring defense (18.3 points a game) last season. The defensive line and secondary each return three starters and the linebacking unit features Florida transfer Ray Shipley, who is one of the best overall athletes on the team.
