According to the dictionary, a syndrome is “a group of signs that occur together and that characterize a particular disorder.”
That definition fits well here.
You can call it the Auburn Syndrome.
When people criticize BCS Championship Game disorder, this snub is the one that they always talk about first.
Remember college football in 2004? In the season’s first polls, Southern California and Oklahoma were ranked 1-2, given credit for outstanding teams, already looking ahead to their BCS title game match-up.
Associated Press ranked Auburn at No. 17, one spot higher than the USA Today coaches’ poll. Nobody gave Auburn credit for much of anything, looking ahead to nothing significant.
What happened? The Trojans and the Sooners ran the table, leaving no room for anybody else to jump ahead. Auburn won ‘em all, too, including beating four nationally ranked teams before winning the Sugar Bowl over No. 9 Virginia Tech. Utah from the Mountain West, coached by Urban Meyer who would go on to win two national championships at Florida, also finished a perfect regular season and defeated Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl. Auburn finished No. 2 in the final BCS poll; Utah finished No. 4.
Southern Cal massacred Oklahoma, 55-19, in the BCS Championship Game. Nobody contended that the Trojans could have demolished Auburn by 36 points … or Utah, for that matter. Then, when USC was later proven to have violated NCAA rules, the title was taken away.
Fast forward nine years. Ironically, the final year without a college playoff could be a repeat of 2004, or worse.
The similarities are everywhere. Alabama and Oregon started out 1-2 in every preseason poll. Ten weeks into the season, there are still seven undefeated teams, and significantly, they represent seven different conferences. So, since none of these guys play each other, if they all keep winning, you will have seven perfect teams.
Seven!
Which teams have the best chance to make it (listed below by their ranking order)?
Alabama – The Crimson Tide has four games remaining, including nose-diving Mississippi State and Chattanooga (what are the Moccasins doing on this schedule?). But, a home game with LSU and a road game at Auburn could be dangerous. Still, until somebody dislodges them on the field, you have to go with the Tide. And, remember, they did start ranked No. 1.
Oregon – Only four teams in the past four years (California, Auburn, LSU, Stanford) have held the Ducks under 34 points. One of those, the Cardinal, hosts Oregon on Thursday night. If Oregon wins there, look for them to finish undefeated. And, remember, they did start ranked No. 2.
Florida State – The Seminoles have already mauled their two toughest opponents (Clemson, Miami) and have little chance to lose a game.
Ohio State – It’s hard to see the Buckeyes losing in the regular season (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan). But, look out for the Big Ten Championship Game. Michigan State at 8-1, the nation’s best defensive team, has been virtually ignored all year. Only an early four-point loss to Notre Dame keeps the Spartans out of the national title discussion. State could still lose (at Nebraska and Northwestern, and Minnesota at home), but if it is the division champion, it could shatter Ohio State’s BCS dream.
Baylor – Averaging 63 points seven games into the season. Are you kidding me! No offense, including Oregon, has been more impressive and few running backs can match Lache Seastrunk. But, the Bears have the toughest road ahead – Oklahoma at home on Thursday night, Texas Tech in Arlington (Nov. 16), at Oklahoma State (Nov. 23), at TCU (Nov. 30) and Texas at home (Dec. 7). If Baylor runs that gauntlet, it will be hard to argue against them.
Fresno State – Remember Utah? Here’s the Mountain West again. The Bulldogs have one of the nation’s best quarterbacks and leaders in Derek Carr and have two remaining regular season challenges – at Wyoming, at San Jose State. Win those and they likely face a rematch in the inaugural Mountain West Championship Game against Boise State. The Broncos gave Fresno all it could handle a few weeks ago, but that was before quarterback Joe Southwick was lost for the year.
Northern Illinois – The MAC juggernaut continues its Sherman-like march through the conference. There’s no probable loss remaining on the schedule, including the league championship game. Unfortunately, there’s no signature win over a highly-rated team this season. Still, 13-0 is 13-0.
When the smoke clears, you won’t have seven perfect teams. Somebody will lose. Maybe several will go down.
And, unlike some past seasons, no team will sneak into the BCS Championship Game with a loss. There are still 10 teams with just one defeat. If any of them are hoping for lightning to strike again this season, forget it!
It’s just too easy to see several undefeated teams this time around.
At this point, it should be Alabama and Oregon playing for the BCS title. After all, they were ranked 1-2 before the season, and this is the game that everybody has been wanting to see. That still seems like the best on-the-field match-up. But, if that happens, you can expect a lot of understandably vocal, frustrated, furious fans in Tallahassee, Columbus or Waco … or maybe in all of those places.
Let’s review it again this time next week. A lot of things can change between now and then.
In the meantime, move over Auburn and Utah.
It’s looking like 2004 all over again.