On Tuesday night, the first College Football Playoff ranking will be released. That’s why this column is being written and posted before that time, even though you may be reading it after the ranking has been announced.
There is a basic question … What is the purpose of the CFP ranking?
Is it to determine which teams most deserve to be ranked the highest based on their records and what they’ve achieved during the season?
Or, is it to determine which are the best four teams at the end of the season when the playoff slots are announced regardless of what happened during the season?
There are valid arguments for both sides of that discussion.
But, for the first ranking, and for the week-by-week ranking during the season, the first criteria should be the basis for the sequence in which teams are rated.
By the end of the regular season and conference championship games, validity of the top four teams has proven to be adequate most years. Since candidate teams will have played each other by season’s end, uncertainty is usually cleared up by head-to-head match-ups.
But, that’s not the case each week. Nobody, including the selection panel, can see the future to know what will happen. How many of them would have foreseen Montana beating Washington, Western Michigan beating Pittsburgh, Illinois beating Penn State or Jacksonville State beating Florida State?
Very few, if any. But, they happened.
So, what MIGHT happen in future games or which teams will PROBABLY be among the four most deserving at season’s end should NOT be the criteria for the week-by-week rankings. That is not an objective, fair way to determine a CFP ranking while the season is still ongoing.
Included below is what I think the first College Football Playoff ranking should look like, along with the reasons why this ranking is valid at this point of the season. There is a near 100% chance that the first CFP ranking will have little resemblance to my ranking and it’s almost certain that by the end of the season, my ranking for the purposes of the four playoff positions will be different.
But, for now from my perspective, here is what the first CFP list should be … and why ..
No. 1 Georgia (8-0)
Pros – This is a no-brainer. Clearly the nation’s best team up to now. Has held nine consecutive opponents to 14 points or less. Dominating on both sides of the ball. No close calls since the season opener against Clemson. The only undefeated team in one of the Power 5 conferences (SEC).
Cons – None.
2. Oklahoma (9-0)
Pros – Nation’s longest win streak at 17 games. Impressive wins, especially offensively against almost every opponent. Only team nationally already with nine wins. The only undefeated team in one of the Power 5 conferences (Big 12).
Cons – Two closer than expected wins … Tulane and Kansas. But, every contender except Georgia has had at least one of those games. (See the list below.
3. Michigan State (8-0)
Pros – Impressive win over No. 6 Michigan. Comfortable wins in most games. The only undefeated team in one of the Power 5 conferences (Big Ten).
Cons – Close wins over Nebraska and Indiana.
4. Cincinnati (8-0)
Pros – Road wins over two Power 5 teams, Indiana and No.6 ranked Notre Dame. The only undefeated team in the nation’s top Group of 5 conference (American Athletic).
Cons – Playing a primarily Group of 5 conference schedule doesn’t provide a schedule as difficult, on a week-to-week basis, as in a Power 5 conference.
5. Oregon (7-1)
Pros – Impressive road win against No. 6 Ohio State. Best team in one of the Power 5 conferences (Pac-12). Ducks should be ranked ahead of the Buckeyes since they won head-to-head and have the same record.
Cons – Lost to Stanford, which has a 3-5 record. Should not be ranked at this point ahead of any eligible undefeated team.
6. Ohio State (7-1)
Pros – Only loss is to No. 7 Oregon. Still undefeated in a Power 5 conference (Big Ten).
Cons – Its one loss was at home. Should not be ranked ahead of Oregon, which defeated the Buckeyes head-to-head. Should not be ranked at this point ahead of any eligible undefeated teams.
7. Alabama (7-1)
Pros – It is Alabama. Has outstanding players and tradition. Has not scored under 31 points in a game this season.
Cons – Lost to Texas A&M, which had lost its two previous games to Arkansas and Mississippi State. Has not defeated a team currently ranked in the Top 10. Narrow win over (4-4) Florida, which missed its first extra point kick. Should not be ranked at this point ahead of any eligible undefeated team.
8. Wake Forest (8-0)
Pros – The only undefeated team in one of the Power 5 conferences (Atlantic Coast). Strong offensively, scoring 37 or more points in every game.
Cons – Has no wins over a nationally ranked team. Had two wins by only three points (Syracuse, Louisville). Atlantic Coast Conference does not have as many nationally competitive teams this season as usual.
9. Notre Dame (7-1)
Pros – It is Notre Dame. Lost only to No. 2 ranked Cincinnati.
Cons – Has not defeated a team currently in the Top 25. Won three games by only three points (Florida State, Toledo, Virginia Tech). Its only loss was at South Bend.
10. Oklahoma State (7-1)
Pros – Gave Baylor (7-1, No. 14) its only loss of the season. Defense hasn’t surrendered over 24 points in a game this season.
Cons – Lost to unranked Iowa State. Close wins over Tulsa, Boise State and Missouri State.
So, there is what I think an objective, fair first-week CFP ranking should be.
I’m sure that fans of several teams won’t support my thoughts on the rankings. But, if they’re willing to evaluate this objectively without colored glasses, I think the logic with this list will be hard to dispute.
Now, compare it to the REAL first-week CFP ranking. Pretty sure that it’s quite different.
These are the things that make college football so much fun to follow.