Welcome to The Weekly Briefing, your Thursday rundown of college football’s biggest stories waiting to happen.
1. The Early Day of Reckoning
There’s no such thing as a “bad” week of college football; even last week’s slate with no games among ranked opponents turned into an exciting affair, somewhere between Central Michigan’s controversial miracle win over No. 22 Oklahoma State and Arizona State running back Kalen Ballage’s barrage of eight touchdowns against Texas Tech.
But with each of the top three teams on the road this week against ranked foes, the Week 3 slate looks like it’ll shape the landscape of the 2016 college football season.
Saturday is the rare card where the main event comes first — No. 2 Florida State at No. 10 Louisville leads off the early slate of games at noon ET, and there’s a surprisingly good chance fans will be watching a future Heisman winner in action, to say nothing of the ACC title and CFB Playoff implications. Currently, Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson and Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois and running back Dalvin Cook are among the top Heisman candidates in the nation, and the winner of this game will only — “only” — need to get past division foe Clemson to be a prohibitive ACC favorite.
Jackson has been the breakout star of the early 2016 season, but the step up in athleticism and quality from Syracuse’s defense to Florida State’s is, well, substantial. Then again, Ole Miss managed 34 points and 380 yards of offense, and Jackson is a decent step up in talent from Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly, so maybe another big game is in the offing. If so, look out, the Lamar Jackson hype train’s hitting full speed, and the Louisville Express isn’t far behind.
2. Stormin’ Into Norman
It’s almost a travesty that two of the most legendary college football programs, both now and in history, haven’t faced each other more often. No. 3 Ohio State goes to No. 14 Oklahoma for only the third meeting between the programs, following a 1983 win in Norman by Ohio State and the Sooners’ 1977 win in Columbus, one of the single all-time greatest nonconference games ever. And that’s it — not even a bowl game between the two.
In terms of pure talent, both of these teams are loaded, but they’re also both at crossroads of sorts; Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes were decimated by graduation and early entrants in the NFL draft, and while the offense has needed a quarter or two to get rolling early in the season, the defense (6.5 points allowed per game) is picking up the slack.
Meanwhile, Bob Stoops’ Sooners are still reeling from their opening-week loss to Houston and truly cannot afford another nonconference loss if they still harbor the national title aspirations that had been on the table. Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield struggled at times against the fast, aggressive Houston defense, and he’s in for plenty of that when the Buckeyes step onto the field at Memorial Stadium.
3. Land Sharks Love A Low Tide
No. 1 Alabama has to travel to No. 19 Ole Miss in a CBS game that should dominate afternoon (3:30 ET) viewership. On paper, it’s not much of a fight — Bama looks like a pro team playing college games, and the Rebel offense went, ahem, Ole Missing in the second half of its tilt with Florida State on Labor Day.
And yet, and yet, and yet: Alabama’s riding a two-game losing streak to Ole Miss and Hugh Freeze, whose Rebels have mixed a talent influx with controlled chaos on the field, as typified by their “Land Shark” persona on defense. Granted, giving up 45 points to Florida State is not very shark-y, whether by land or sea, but they’re extremely unlikely to be intimidated by Alabama or Nick Saban. Also, Bama’s likely starting true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has impressed early but is still, well, a true freshman.
Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly has an opportunity to cement his name among the all-time greats if he can knock off the Crimson Tide again, to say nothing of the shockwaves it would send through the Top 10 and the SEC West. Of course, streaks aren’t built to last (especially compared to Bama), but if this one even hits three, it’s the biggest story of the year in the SEC.
4. We Have A Houston Problem
The first game of the week is itself a doozy, as No. 6 Houston heads to Cincinnati to face the Bearcats under the lights of Nippert Stadium on Thursday night. Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is back after a minor shoulder injury left him out against Lamar, and the Cougars have won 15 straight starts of his — the longest active streak in FBS.
Cincinnati is 2-0 and likely to put up a serious fight behind quarterback Hayden Moore, and Thursday Night Football’s list of ranked road victims is the stuff of nightmares for coaches. But if coach Tom Herman’s Cougars pick up a victory, they’re in for a pretty smooth road from here on out. Houston has one ranked foe left, and it is Louisville coming to town the week before Thanksgiving. Houston even misses South Florida and East Carolina, likely the two best teams in the American East Division.
So if Houston goes 13-0 with home wins over Oklahoma and Louisville and an AAC Championship win, is that enough to overcome a 12-1 Power 5 conference champion with a tougher road to get through? How about 11-2 with two ranked road losses and a couple more ranked wins? These aren’t easy questions.
5. Thanks, College Football Playoff
It’s worth pointing out that if any of those top three teams lose this week, it dramatically diminishes their playoff chances — but it doesn’t take them out of the running entirely, the way it might have in the old BCS arrangement. Some might say that’s “diminishing the regular season,” as had been the pre-playoff argument, but the opposite is happening, and it bears out in the quality of nonconference games this season.
The BCS and its computer rankings had effectively turned losses into such a negative that title-minded teams had little-to-no incentive to schedule difficult nonconference games in the first place. Economics will still dictate the occasional MACrifice or FCS cupcake game, but now that there’s a playoff committee that’s looking for conference champions and overall strength of schedule, the doors are open for beefing up nonconference schedules and worrying more about records in conference than overall.
And isn’t that the way it’s supposed to be? More competition, more big games, more reasons to keep watching? No, that’s not a diminished regular season, that’s a better regular season than ever.