Expectations for the 2015 Chicago Cubs are elevated, but are they realistic?
The Cubs brought in a proven winner (Joe Maddon) as manager, added an elite left-handed starting pitcher (Jon Lester), feature a solid bullpen and have big bats led by All-Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Starlin Castro.
They also — arguably — have baseball’s most talented minor league system, with some young players ready for big-time contributions to the parent club. Two of them — outfielder Jorge Soler and third baseman Kris Bryant — are on short lists as National League rookie of the year candidates.
“We’re going to win the NL Central, quote me on that,” first baseman Anthony Rizzo proclaimed at a mid-winter fan convention. “We should be the team. … We’re going to do some things this year. That’s what we’re expecting.”
But this is also a Cubs team coming off a 73-89 finish in 2014 — 17 games behind NL Central champion St. Louis. They finished near the bottom in runs produced (614) and have had back-to-back last-place finishes in the division.
Plus, the Cubs haven’t won a World Series since 1908 or appeared in a Fall Classic since 1945.
Optimists like Rizzo have the Cubs in the running for the postseason. That would mean a climb from worst to first, a feat accomplished by just a handful of teams.
Maddon has been there and done exactly that. He guided the Tampa Bay Rays from last place in 2007 to the World Series the next year.
Realists see improvement but also a work in progress. It’s not unlike the extensive Wrigley Field renovation going on around the Cubs this season promising rewards down the road.
That’s not to say that the Cubs shouldn’t be better right away.
On paper, the pitching staff looks strong with at least three other solid starters joining Lester: Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks. Veteran LHP Travis Wood won a battle for the fifth starter.
They’ll be backed up by a deep bullpen led by closer Hector Rondon, who emerged as a dependable arm last season and closed with 15 consecutive saves.
Rizzo and Castro are both coming off All-Star seasons. Rizzo had a career year with his .286 average and 32 home runs, second in the National League. Castro batted .292 in a bounce-back season after hitting .245 in 2013. The Cubs also added important bats with leadoff man Dexter Fowler and All-Star catcher Miguel Montero.
Rookie third baseman Kris Bryant, who batted .425 and clubbed nine home runs in spring training, should join them from Triple-A Iowa later in April.
The Cubs and fans will get their first looks at the early stages of a $500 million renovation plan when the season opens Sunday.
A large video board looms over the unfinished new left-field bleacher area. Extensive work also remains on the right field bleachers and Cubs officials don’t foresee completion until late spring. Until then, it will be quiet in the outfield.
The field itself and park dimensions are unchanged and the ivy-covered brick walls and iconic hand-operated center field scoreboard were preserved when bleachers were demolished last fall.
ROSTER REPORT:
ROTATION
1. LHP Jon Lester
2. RHP Jake Arrieta
3. RHP Jason Hammel
4. RHP Kyle Hendricks
5. LHP Travis Wood
Lester became the staff ace after he signed a six-year deal in the offseason. He went 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA and 149 strikeouts in a 2014 season split between the Boston Red Sox and Oakland A’s. Lester has won 15 or more games every season since 2008 except one.
Arrieta had a superb 2014, posting a team-best 10-5 record and accounting for 11 percent of the Cubs’ victories while RHP Jason Hammel returns to Chicago after a short stint with Oakland as the A’s pushed for the postseason. He struggled to a 2-6 record in Oakland after an 8-5 mark with the Cubs.
Hendricks had an impressive rookie season with 13 starts, a 7-2 record and 2.46 ERA. Wood, meanwhile, has been a consistent presence despite records below .500. He has averaged nearly 30 started in each of the past three seasons, 176 innings pitched and nearly eight wins a year.
BULLPEN:
RHP Hector Rondon
RHP Pedro Strop
RHP Neil Ramirez
RHP Justin Grimm
RHP Jason Motte
LHP Phil Coke
RHP Edwin Jackson
Rondon collected 29 saves and finished strong in his second major league season. Grimm made 73 appearances and collected 19 saves and 11 holds in 69 innings. After suffering the loss in a 5-2 decision on May 13, 2014, he never lost again the rest of the way.
Strop was 2-4 with two saves and 21 holds while mainly in a middle relief role. He closed with a 2.20 ERA. Ramirez went 3-3 in his first major league season with a 1.44 ERA in 43 2/3 innings and 50 appearances.
RHP Jason Motte, 32, had 42 saves for the Cardinals in 2012, then spent most of the next two season sidelined recovering from right elbow surgery.
Coke, who spent the last five seasons with the Tigers, adds quality left-handed experience. He was scoreless in nine spring training outings. Jackson still has three years left on his current Cubs deal signed in 2013, but he has struggled as a starter, going 14-22 in 59 starts in two seasons.
LINEUP:
CF Dexter Fowler
RF Jorge Soler
1B Anthony Rizzo
SS Starlin Castro
C Miguel Montero
3B Mike Olt
LF Chris Coghlan
2B Tommy La Stella
The top two-thirds of the order may be particularly dangerous for opposing pitches this season with a legitimate leadoff batter in CF Dexter Fowler, who brings a .366 career on-base percentage while batting .276 last year with the Astros. He’s followed by a No. 2 batter in Soler who reached in 20 of his first 23 games, hitting safely in 19 of those.
Then comes the power with 1B Anthony Rizzo, who was fourth in the National League last with 32 home runs. He also batted a career-best .286 with 78 RBIs in 140 games while earning his first All-Star nod.
Castro, 24, had a bounce-back year, hitting .292 with 14 homers and 65 RBIs and also earned an All-Star nod before his season ended in early September with an ankle injury.
Montero moved into the No. 1 spot once held by Welington Castillo, a mainstay the last two seasons. Montero, who played the last nine seasons in Arizona, is a .264 lifetime hitter with a .991 fielding average.
Olt’s time at third could be short-lived when top prospect Kris Bryant returns to the Cubs in late April. Bryant hit .425 in the spring with nine homers and 15 RBIs.
RESERVES:
INF/OF Arismendy Alcantara
C David Ross
C Welington Castillo
OF Matt Szczur
OF Ryan Sweeney
INF Jonathan Herrera
If the Cubs need someone to fill a spot, then switch-hitting INF/OF Arismendy Alcantara might be the go-to super sub. In 70 games last season, he clubbed 10 home runs among 57 hits while walking 27 times and stealing eight bases. He had a .989 fielding percentage at second base.
The speedy Szczur, who can play all three positions, made a case for a roster spot with a .349 spring average with five home runs.
Sweeney is similarly flexible, but he has also had to contend with injuries during this career. Like Alcantara, Herrera is a switch hitter. His six-year career includes stops with Colorado and Boston.
MEDICAL WATCH
–OF Chris Denforia’s slow recovery from a hamstring injury could land him on the disabled list to start the season.
–RHP Jacob Turner could end up on the 60-day disabled list with an arm injury.