THE LOWE DOWN

The Lowe Down on Week Seven: Auburn, Baylor win

Matt Lowe

October 10, 2014 at 2:06 pm.

Welcome to Week Seven of The Lowe Down.

First off, I tip my hat to Ole Miss and Mississippi State for their brilliant performances last weekend. It’s been a long time coming for those two fan bases and to do what both of those schools did with the nation watching was impressive.

But now reality sets in and so does the grind of the SEC West. Mississippi State hosts Auburn Saturday in what could turn out to be the game of the year in the SEC, while Ole Miss goes on the road to face an explosive Texas A&M team that’s capable of beating anyone it plays.

But in just a week’s time, the Bulldogs and Rebels have gone from the hunter to the hunted. And that’s a whole lot different role than being the little train that could. I have no doubts that Ole Miss and Mississippi State are good teams. But the longer they stay undefeated, the tougher the games get and the more the pressure builds. I just want to see if either team can shoulder that load. This weekend will give us a good idea if they can or not.

Last week’s record was a disappointing 12-11, bringing the yearly record to 95-33. To the games we go…

@MattLowe777

Friday, October 10

Washington St. (2-4, 1-2 Pac-12) at No. 25 Stanford (3-2, 1-1 Pac-12) 8:00 CT

Connor Halliday passed for an NCAA record 734 and seven touchdowns in the Cougars’ 60-59 heartbreaking loss to Cal last weekend. But don’t expect him to duplicate those numbers against a Stanford defense that ranks second nationally in pass defense (107.4 ppg) and tops the country in scoring defense (8.9 ppg.) Despite the Cardinal’s deficiencies on offense, David Shaw’s team should move the ball effectively on Washington’s State’s defense. But if Stanford bogs down in the red zone like it has done all season (ranks 115th nationally), Washington State has a shot at the upset.

The Lowe Down: Washington State 23, Stanford 27 

Saturday, October 11

Texas (2-3, 1-1 Big 12) vs No. 11 OU (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) (Dallas) 11:00 a.m. CT

After suffering a 36-20 loss at the hands of Texas a year ago, Oklahoma should be ready to exact some revenge on its arch-rival. Added Sooner incentive should also come from the fact that Bob Stoops’ team can ill-afford another loss if it expects to have a shot at the College Football Playoff. The Sooners roll.

The Lowe Down: Texas 14, Oklahoma 38

No. 13 Georgia (4-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 23 Missouri (4-1, 1-0 SEC) 11:00 CT

The loss of Heisman candidate Todd Gurley to an indefinite suspension is a major blow to the Georgia team. To date, Gurley has accounted for over half of the Bulldogs’ offensive production and his ability to single-handedly take over a game will be sorely missed while he is away from the team. True freshman Nick Chubb, who ranks second on the squad with 234 rushing yards, will likely step into  Gurley’s roll as the feature back, but Chubb’s limitations in the passing game (blocking especially) could hinder Georgia when it goes to the air. With that said, Missouri takes control of the SEC East by getting a big win at home.

The Lowe Down: Georgia 17, Missouri 28

No. 2 Auburn (5-0, 2-0 SEC) at No. 3 Miss. St. (5-0, 2-0 SEC) 2:30 p.m. CT

It’s relatively safe to say this is easily the biggest game in the history of the Auburn/Mississippi State series. Not only is SEC West supremacy at stake, but so is a potential Heisman Trophy and a possible berth in the first ever College Football Playoff on down the line. The quarterback battle between Auburn’s Nick Marshall and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott, two of the premier players in college football, is grabbing all the headlines, but the two defenses, along whichever team makes the fewest mistakes (turnovers, penalties), will determine the outcome of this game. Auburn is holding opponents to 14.4 ppg, while State is allowing 19.4. But the Bulldogs have been awful against the pass (allowing 329.8 ypg, which ranks 123rd out of 126 teams) while the Tigers have been respectable (206.4 ypg, which ranks 32nd nationally.) This could be a huge advantage to Auburn on offense considering the wealth of talent Gus Malzahn’s team features at receiver (Sammie Coates, D’haquille Williams, Quan Bray etc.).

The Lowe Down: Auburn 36, Mississippi State 28

No. 12 Oregon (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) at No. 18 UCLA (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) 2:30 CT

The Pac-12 is about as whacky as a league as there is and honestly it is almost impossible to predict who will win this game. Like the aforementioned game, both teams feature explosive offenses, but Oregon and ULCA have deficiencies on defense and that will show up here. Expect a shootout, but Brett Hundley and the Bruins get the job done at home … I think.

The Lowe Down: Oregon 38, UCLA 41

No. 9 TCU (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) at No. 5 Baylor (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) CT

Following last year’s three-point loss to Baylor at home, TCU head coach Gary Patterson accused the Bears’ players of playing dirty and even challenged head coach Art Briles to a fight. So what should we expect for an encore? Well, don’t expect the Horned Frogs to back down from the high-scoring Bears, especially after they knocked off Oklahoma last week. Like Baylor, TCU has an explosive offense, led by dual-threat quarterback Trevone Boykin, tailback B.J. Catalon and blazing fast wideout Kolby Listenbee, and its defense has enough speed and athleticism on defense to give the Baylor offense problems. But the Bears pull out a tight one behind the playmaking of quarterback Bryce Petty and an opportunistic defense.

The Lowe Down: TCU 27, Baylor 32

No. 7 Alabama (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at Arkansas (3-2, 0-2 SEC) 5:00 CT

This could be another tough spot for the Crimson Tide. Alabama could be limited on what it can do offensively against Arkansas do to the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly and it’s a banged up team following the loss to Ole Miss. Redshirt freshman Bradley Bozeman (6-5, 325) will make his first start in place of Kelly and you can rest assured the Alabama coaching staff won’t put too much on his plate. With that said, expect the Tide to pound the rock with tailbacks T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry and attack the Arkansas secondary with deep strikes down the field to Amari Cooper off play-action in order to protect Bozeman. But regardless of how well Bozeman plays, Alabama will be in for a fight. Arkansas’ offensive line is the biggest in college football and it can run the rock on anyone with dynamic tailbacks Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins. If Alabama’s offense can’t get it going, the Tide could drop its second straight.

The Lowe Down: Alabama 24, Arkansas 20

No. 3 Ole Miss (5-0, 2-0 SEC) at No. 14 Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1 SEC) 8:00 CT

Mental toughness is always a big part of a championship team. When Ole Miss invades Kyle Field Saturday night, we will see just how mentally tough the Rebels are after coming off one of the biggest wins in school history. Although Hugh Freeze’s squad is a more complete team than Texas A&M, the Aggies have the playmakers on offense to give the Rebels defense, which will be without stud safety Trae Elston for the first half, a lot of problems. Ole Miss should win this game, and if it were any other week I would say they would. But I like the Aggies in this spot. Over 100,000-plus will be in attendance and the atmosphere should be electric.

The Lowe Down: Ole Miss 31, Texas A&M 37   

USC (3-2, 2-1 Pac-12) at No. 10 Arizona (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12) 9:30 p.m. CT

Rich Rodriguez is proving why he was one of the hottest coaches in the country a few years back. In his third year with the Wildcats, he is orchestrating arguably the Pac-12’s best team. Arizona features a perfect blend of talented young players on offense — in particular redshirt freshman quarterback Anu Solomon and dynamic tailback Nick Wilson — to go along with a salty defense, led by linebackers Scooby Wright (remember him from the Oregon game?) and Tra’Mayne Bondurant, safety Jared Tevis and defensive tackle Dan Pettinato. Why USC is favored? I have no clue. Arizona does the deed.

The Lowe Down: USC 23, Arizona 35

In other Saturday games:

Illinois 17, Wisconsin 48

West Virginia 27, Texas Tech 34

No. 1 Florida State 45, Syracuse 7

Northwestern 17, Minnesota 24

No. 8 Michigan State 35, Purdue 17

Duke 20, No. 22 Georgia Tech 35

North Carolina 14, No. 6 Notre Dame 38

North Texas 27, UAB 30

Washington 37, Cal 34

Houston 17, Memphis 27

No. 19 East Carolina 38, South Florida 17

LSU 14, Florida 23

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