Alabama's defense will need to play well if its expects to beat Mississippi State. Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to Week 12 of The Lowe Down.
I can honestly say this is the most unpredictable college football season that I can remember since a two-loss LSU team whipped Ohio State to claim the national title in 2007.
If Mississippi State goes down to Alabama in Tuscaloosa Saturday and Florida State falls to Miami or Ohio State slips up at Minnesota, all likely scenarios, then the College Football Playoff feathers, like they’ve have been all season long (aren’t you sick of hearing about scenarios?), will be ruffled yet again.
I watch a lot of football year after year and I honestly can’t tell you who would win a playoff if it involved 10 teams much less four teams right now. Oregon may be playing the best ball of any team at the moment, but I’m not sure how the Ducks would fare against an SEC team or a TCU. And the same could be said for the Horned Frogs. But regardless of what I think, it will all play itself out. And you can rest assured whoever is the last team standing on January 12 will have played their way to the top of the college football world. And isn’t that the point of the new postseason format?
Cold weather and winter precipitation has a stranglehold on nearly the entire United States so weather could play a major factor in a number of games this weekend. Last week’s record was 13-7, bringing the yearly record to 160-56. To the games we go…
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Friday, November 14
Tulsa 13, UCF 35
Saturday, November 15
No. 8 Ohio State (8-1, 5-0 Big Ten) at No. 25 Minnesota (7-2, 4-1 Big Ten) 11:00 a.m. CT
Winter storm Astro has brought cold temps and winter precipitation to the entire northern part of the country and the high Saturday isn’t expected to get out of the 20s (snow expected) in St. Paul, so weather could play a role in this suddenly huge Big Ten contest. Although Minnesota isn’t being given much of chance in this game, it could play Ohio State tough if it continues the momentum of last week’s 51-14 rout of Iowa and just plays loose. The Gophers have a solid offensive line, a good dual-threat quarterback in Mitch Leidner, two solid backs in David Cobb and K.J. Maye and a tight end (Maxx Williams) who can really go up and get it, not to mention a sound defense. Yes, Ohio State is the better team with the better athletes but I’m feeling the Jerry Kill love. The Gophers shock the nation in a wild home environment.
The Lowe Down: Ohio State 23, Minnesota 26
No.19 Clemson (7-2, 6-1 ACC) at No. 22 Georgia Tech (8-2, 5-2 ACC) 11:00 a.m. CT
Deshaun Watson, an Atlanta native, is expected to return to the Clemson lineup just in time to return to his hometown in this big ACC showdown. Watson is a fantastic athlete who’s a perfect fit in Chad Morris’ offense, and he’ll play a major role in how well the Tigers do the rest of the way. Honestly, this game will come down to whichever team can stop the other. Yes, Clemson’s defense only allows 18.4 points per game, but stopping the Yellow Jackets offense is never easy. Tech has scored 147 points in its last three games and playing at home is a big boost for Paul Johnson’s team.
The Lowe Down: Clemson 24, Georgia Tech 27
No. 1 Mississippi State (9-0, 5-0 SEC) at No. 5 Alabama (8-1, 5-1 SEC) 2:30 p.m. CT
Much is being made about the line in this game, but Alabama fans should be more concerned about the Bulldogs personnel than what the number is in Vegas. Mississippi State is arguably the most talented team in the country in the trenches and quarterback Dak Prescott, who’s been hobbled by a foot injury, is the best player to ever play at the school. Prescott’s ability as a runner is probably the most dangerous facet of his game, but he doubles as a good passer who’s really adept at throwing the slant and out routes. Look for Alabama’s defense to throw in some Cover 2 zone looks in an attempt to take those throws away. Offensively, the Crimson Tide will need to play well up front to counter State’s talented and deep defensive line. You may also see Alabama pass to set up the run early in the game. But avoiding turnovers will be a major key to success for Blake Sims and company. The Bulldogs thrive on takeaways. It’s one of the team mottos. If Alabama can play mistake-free, it has the goods to knock off the No. 1 team at home.
The Lowe Down: Alabama 33, Mississippi State 23
No. 16 Nebraska (8-1, 4-1 Big Ten) at No. 20 Wisconsin (7-2, 4-1 Big Ten) 2:30 p.m. CT
If you like watching great tailbacks run, then this is the game for you. Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon (1,501 yards and 19 TDs) and Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah (1,250 yards and 17 TDs) rank No. 1 and No. 5 nationally respectively in rushing yards, but in this matchup I’ll give a slight edge to Gordon and the Badgers and here’s why: Camp Randall is an extremely tough place to enter and win, and the health status of Abdullah (sprained knee) is a big unknown. Abdullah is the heart of soul of Nebraska’s offense and if he’s not fully healthy I’m not sure the Cornhuskers can do the deed on the road. Regardless, I think it will be a tightly contested game.
The Lowe Down: Nebraska 20, Wisconsin 24
No. 9 Auburn (7-2, 4-2 SEC) at No. 15 Georgia (7-2, 5-2 SEC) 6:15 p.m. CT
The biggest detriment to Auburn this season has been Auburn. After their stunning loss to Texas A&M , the Tigers could only look back and think what might have been after two fumbles, one near the goal-line, and a slew of mistakes likely cost Gus Malzahn’s team a shot at the four-team playoff. Entering this game, Georgia has all the momentum. The Bulldogs haven’t played at home in over a month (expect a rowdy crowd), and the return of stud tailback Todd Gurley makes an already good offensive team that much better. But, I still can’t get over that Florida game and how the Gators ran roughshod over a hapless Bulldogs defense. If Will Muschamp’s crew can do that, then what will Nick Marshall, Cameron Artis-Payne and company do to the Dawgs defense? Expect a LOT of points in this one but Auburn pulls out a nail-biter … again.
The Lowe Down: Auburn 42, Georgia 39
No. 3 Florida State (9-0, 6-0 ACC) at Miami (6-3, 3-2 ACC) 7:00 p.m. CT
Florida State has definitely played with fire in several games this season and there’s no reason to think Jimbo Fisher’s team won’t again when it travels to Miami to take on the Hurricanes. There’s a lot of national buzz about The U pulling the upset, but Jameis Winston and company know how to win and they’ve proven that by winning a school-record 25 straight times. Is this the weekend the ‘Noles finally get burned? It very well could be because of the Duke factor. If you haven’t seen him play, Duke Johnson (1,213 yards and seven TDs) is an absolute stud. And he ‘ll be the difference in the ‘Canes pulling out a victory.
The Lowe Down: Florida State 27, Miami 30
No. 17 LSU (7-3, 3-3 SEC) at Arkansas (4-5, 0-5 SEC) 7:00 p.m. CT
I’m not sure any coach in America has done a better job than Les Miles. After many left LSU for dead following a blowout loss to Auburn, the Tigers did a complete 180 and beat Florida on the road and Kentucky and Ole Miss at home before dropping a heartbreaker to Alabama last week. The Tigers have reverted back to playing ball-control offense, which relies on a physical rushing attack, led by freshman Leonard Fournette, and sound defense in their resurgence. In fact, it could be argued that LSU is the best three-loss team (lost to three Top 10 teams) in America. Although many think the Miles and company will go down here, I think they pull out a tight win on the road in the snow.
The Lowe Down: LSU 20, Arkansas 19
No. 6 Arizona State (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) at Oregon State (4-5, 1-5 Pac-12) 9:45 p.m. CT
This could be a tricky spot for the Sun Devils following a big win over Notre Dame. Although the Beavers have lost four straight Pac-12 games in a row, all but one (38-14 loss at Stanford), have been tight. Senior quarterback Sean Mannion and the OSU offense have played better of late and they should be able to find some holes in an Arizona State defense that gives up yards and points. Temps are expected to be in the low 20s by game time so the cold could be a major factor. Arizona State should come out on top, but don’t be surprised to see the Beavers show well on Saturday night.
The Lowe Down: Arizona State 33, Oregon State 30
In other Saturday games:
Virginia Tech 13, No. 21 Duke 31
South Carolina 30, Florida 27
No. 4 TCU 48, Kansas 21
Oklahoma 42, Texas Tech 28
Kentucky 20, Tennessee 35
No. 23 Utah 23, Stanford 26
Missouri 20, No. 24 Texas A&M 34
Texas 30, Oklahoma State 27
San Diego State 20, Boise State 45
