The Mets need a productive, and healthy, season from David Wright. (Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports)
What does being one of baseball’s best teams in spring training portend for the regular season? The New York Mets are on the verge of finding out.
The Mets finished March with an 18-11 record in exhibition play, the best mark amongst Grapefruit League teams and the fourth-best record in the majors behind a trio of Cactus League teams.
The Mets need to win just one of their final four Grapefruit League games to ensure their best record in exhibition play since 2009, when they went 18-15. The Mets haven’t won more than 18 games in spring training since 2008, when they went 20-11.
The 2008 season was, of course, the last time the Mets finished with a winning regular season record and contended for a playoff berth. Between 2009 and 2014, the Mets went 87-97 (.473) in exhibition play, performances which were more or less in line with how they’ve fared in the regular season (453-519, a winning percentage of .466).
So should the Mets start printing playoff tickets? Well, not quite, but recent history suggests a team would rather have a very good spring than a poor one.
Each of the last three World Series winners (the 2012 and 2014 San Francisco Giants and 2013 Boston Red Sox) had a .500 or better record in spring training, though none got to the .600 mark. Of the 16 teams to play .600 ball or better in spring training since 2012, six made the playoffs.
Conversely, of the 15 teams to play .400 ball or worse in spring training since 2012, only three made the playoffs and none got to the World Series.
For the Mets, the recent results for successful spring training teams are less relevant than the message they are sending and tone they may be sending by winning — especially in the style they’ve displayed.
The Mets ended March by winning 12 of their final 15 games as they recovered from a slow start that inspired owner Fred Wilpon to pay a visit to manager Terry Collins’ office on March 9. Wilpon made another trek inside the clubhouse on March 30, when he met with the team and delivered what was described as a “very positive” half-hour speech.
“Fred’s always been upbeat,” said third baseman David Wright, the Mets’ captain and longest-tenured player. “This was nothing different.”
The victorious burst certainly helped cement some positivity that may have been shaken by a spate of injuries throughout March. The Mets lost their no. 2 starter, right-hander Zack Wheeler, and their lone left-handed reliever, Josh Edgin, to Tommy John surgery within a matter of days. Right-hander Vic Black, the likely seventh-inning man, has battled a shoulder injury for most of camp.
Second baseman Daniel Murphy, the most reliable cog in the lineup, hasn’t played in an exhibition game since March 19 due to a hamstring strain. He is likely to begin the season on the disabled list.
Even with Murphy banged up, the Mets began play on March 31 ranked first in the Grapefruit League and third in the majors with 167 runs scored. Outfielder Michael Cuddyer, the lone free agent import of note, had six homers through March 31 while Wright, coming off an injury-wrecked 2014, had four blasts.
In addition, the Mets’ run differential of plus-52 was also tied for first with the Athletics.
It’s just spring training, of course, but it can’t hurt a franchise perpetually in search of offense to enter the season feeling pretty good about itself at the plate. Nor can it be bad for the Mets to be trouncing teams after a season in which general manager Sandy Alderson kept pointing to a positive run differential as evidence the Mets were better than their record.
“We’re playing well,” Alderson told the New York Post on March 30. “We’re swinging the bats, scoring runs. There’s a reason why we’ve won a few of the games.
“But it’s spring training, and we all understand that.”
And as well as the Mets have performed offensively, the projected top two starters — reigning Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom and returning ace Matt Harvey — combined for a 1.99 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 38-to-5 over their first 10 starts, a span of 40 2/3 innings. The likely Opening Day rotation — right-handers Bartolo Colon, deGrom, Harvey, Dillon Gee and left-hander Jonathon Niese — combined to issue just 18 walks in 90 1/3 innings.
“The starting pitching has been uniformly good,” Alderson told the Post.
In addition, Alderson bolstered the one weakness of the pitching staff on March 30, when he acquired left-handed relievers Alex Torres and Jerry Blevins in separate deals with the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals.
“We talk about how successful we want to be,” Collins said. “There was a piece we needed and today we went out and got those pieces.”
So even if the spring training offensive surge isn’t for real, the Mets appear to have built themselves some margin for error with sturdy pitching.
One thing with no margin for error is the Mets’ timetable for contention. Collins and Alderson have both spoken for months about 2015 being the season in which the Mets finally complete the rebuilding process and vie for a playoff berth.
“I think this is the year for our team to step up,” Collins told MLB.com.
The Mets will at least enter the season looking like a team ready to take that step.
ROSTER REPORT
PROJECTED ROTATION:
RHP Jacob deGrom
RHP Matt Harvey
LHP Jonathon Niese
RHP Bartolo Colon
RHP Dillon Gee
Colon will draw the Opening Day start and reigning National League Rookie of the Year deGrom will start the home opener on April 13. But all eyes will be on Harvey, who is expected to open the season third in the rotation and is lined up to start the second game on April 14. Harvey, who missed last season due to Tommy John surgery, looked ready in spring training to pick up where he left off during his meteoric 2013 campaign. The snarling right-hander had a 1.45 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 17-to-1 over his first 18 2/3 innings of Grapefruit League action. If he’s really already all the way back, then Harvey provides the Mets a true ace whose every start is a must-see event.
Nobody expected deGrom to emerge as the Rookie of the Year last season, but it doesn’t look to be a fluke: He was regularly clocked in the mid-90s this spring while posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 21-to-4 in his first 22 innings. At 26, deGrom is on the old side of the prospect spectrum, but his athleticism and medical history — the former shortstop has already undergone a Tommy John surgery — suggests he could be the Mets’ long-term no. 2 starter.
The rest of the rotation is a bit in flux. Niese, whose last two seasons were marred by shoulder injuries, admitted feeling some fatigue during the Grapefruit League schedule. Colon threw 202 1/3 innings last season but turns 42 in May. Gee has been an underrated cog in the Mets’ rotation the last four seasons but doesn’t seem very appreciated by anybody in management. With three rookies — RHP Rafael Montero, RHP Noah Syndergaard and LHP Steven Matz — knocking on the door, the Mets are well-positioned to replace Niese, Colon and/or Gee due to health or performance issues.
PROJECTED BULLPEN:
RHP Jenrry Mejia (closer)
RHP Jeurys Familia
LHP Jerry Blevins
LHP Alex Torres
RHP Carlos Torres
RHP Rafael Montero
LHP Sean Gilmartin
For the first time in almost 30 years, the Mets have multiple homegrown options available to serve as closers. Mejia will get first crack after stepping in and recording 28 saves last season, but his rocky spring training was a bit concerning for a player who absorbed a heavy workload and walked a tightrope for much of last season.
RHP Bobby Parnell, who had 22 saves in 2013 but blew out his elbow in his lone appearance in 2014, expects to contend for his job once he returns from the disabled list in April. The biggest threat to his job may not be Mejia but Familia, who recorded five saves as the backup closer last season and posted a 2.21 ERA over 76 games. Familia also struggled this spring.
For most of the spring, it looked as if the Mets might not have a single lefty in the bullpen. But they will likely enter the season with three southpaws following the March 30 acquisitions of Jerry Blevins and Alex Torres. Blevins has limited opposing left-handed batters to a .212 average and a .264 on-base percentage over parts of eight big league seasons while Torres has a 2.55 ERA in 120 innings since 2011, albeit with 60 walks. Rule 5 pick Gilmartin is likely to make the team as well, though the Mets may need to get creative once Parnell and/or RHP Vic Black return from the disabled list.
Montero could provide multiple innings after reaching the majors as a starter last year, but he is looking more and more like a late-inning weapon, at least in the early going. Carlos Torres was one of the most reliable and versatile relievers in the majors last season, when he seemed to get better with use, but a deeper bullpen might allow manager Terry Collins to better pick and choose his spots with the right-hander.
PROJECTED LINEUP:
1. CF Juan Lagares
2. LF Curtis Granderson
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Lucas Duda
5. RF Michael Cuddyer
6. C Travis d’Arnaud
7. SS Wilmer Flores
8. 2B Danny Muno
There’s still some debate over whether Lagares or Granderson should leadoff, but Lagares likely won the chance to start the season atop the order by hitting a robust .346 with a .404 on-base percentage in his first 17 Grapefruit League games. It was just a small sample size, but strikeout-to-walk ratio of 10-to-5 indicates he may have developed a bit of patience after striking out more than four times as many times as he walked in his first two seasons, during which he had a .302 on-base percentage.
At 26, Lagares offers far more possibility for speed atop the lineup than the 34-year-old Granderson. A lineup with Granderson batting second could give the Mets their most potent heart of the order of the Citi Field era. Granderson, Wright, Duda and Cuddyer had 16 homers in their first 169 Grapefruit League at-bats. Each player has at least one 30-homer season on his resume, though none of the quartet is a sure thing. But Duda had three hits against St. Louis Cardinals left-handers on March 29. Granderson has a full season of Citi Field under his belt and Wright and Cuddyer both appear to be healthy.
With no major league ready starters behind them, d’Arnaud and Flores must take big steps forward in their first full major league seasons. The Mets have fast-rising catcher Kevin Plawecki slotted to begin the season at Triple-A Las Vegas, so d’Arnaud needs to prove the strides he made at the plate and behind it last season are for real in order to remain in the Mets’ long-term plans. Flores hit .352 with eight extra-base hits and 11 RBIs in his final 54 at-bats last season and hit .333 with seven extra-base hits and nine RBIs in his first 48 spring training at-bats. Anything remotely close to that once the games count for real and nobody’s going to be asking about his defense.
Muno, a 26-year-old career minor leaguer who hit .381 in his first 21 Grapefruit League games, will likely open the season at second base while Murphy recovers from his hamstring injury, but the Mets need Murphy back sooner than later.
RESERVES
2B/SS Ruben Tejada
1B/3B Eric Campbell
1B/OF John Mayberry Jr.
OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
C Anthony Recker
Most teams don’t have multiple big league starters sitting on the bench, but the Mets are particularly thin behind their everyday players. Tejada offers versatility and little else to an organization that seems to have completely soured on him. Campbell can play every position on the field in a pinch was a feel-good story last year as a 27-year-old rookie last year, but he hit just .172 after the All-Star Break. Mayberry has 30 homers in 490 career at-bats against left-handers but is just a .224 hitters against righties. Nieuwenhuis established himself as a solid pinch-hitter last year while Recker provides a bit of pop and a good game-caller behind the plate, but little else.
MEDICAL WATCH
–RHP Zack Wheeler (torn UCL in right elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery on March 25. He will miss the entire 2015 season.
–LHP Josh Edgin (stretched ligaments in left elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery on March 17. Edgin will miss the entire season.
–2B Daniel Murphy (strained right hamstring) was hurt during a Grapefruit League game on March 19. The Mets estimated he would miss a week or two but he had not returned to action as of March 31. The inactivity allows the Mets to backdate a disabled list stint, which looked more likely as Opening Day approached.
–RHP Vic Black (right shoulder tendinitis) threw 24 pitches on March 28 and expressed hope he would be on the Mets’ Opening Day roster. However, Black, who hasn’t pitched in a Grapefruit League game since March 9, will need to appear in back-to-back games to have a chance at heading north with the Mets. It is likely Black will begin the season on the disabled list.
–RHP Bobby Parnell (2014 Tommy John surgery) threw a scoreless inning March 29. Parnell will open the season on the disabled list but expects to return in April.
