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Stanton signed, what’s next for Marlins?

The Sports Xchange

November 19, 2014 at 1:40 pm.

Miami needs a healthy Jose Fernandez to win the NL East. (Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)

MIAMI — Giancarlo Stanton has secured his financial future.

The 25-year-old slugger and the Miami Marlins made official the monumental 13-year, $325 million contract extension complete with a no-trade clause that secures his future.

But while Stanton is now officially rich, it remains to be seen if the Marlins will enjoy the riches their fans are clamoring for in terms of postseason berths, championship rings and sustained success.

Stanton’s contract, the richest in American sports history, is not just stunning because of the money or the number of years. It’s stunning because it comes from the Marlins, a franchise that has — or had — become synonymous with low-budget payrolls.

Fans have stayed away from Marlins Park, distrustful of a franchise that has too often spent big in one step only to slash payroll in the very next pace.

It happened in 1998, when the Marlins lost 108 games one season after winning their second and most recent World Series. Payroll went from $47.7 million in 1997 to $19.9 million by 2000 after they dumped players such as Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla and Moises Alou.

It happened in 2006, when they took a $60 million payroll and hacked it to $14.9 million. That purge ultimately cost the franchise its last home-grown crown jewel Miguel Cabrera, traded away for an insufficient bounty of prospects. Cabrera went on to win a Triple Crown, two MVP awards and three batting titles with the Detroit Tigers.

And it happened again in 2013, when the Marlins walked away from a $118 million payroll, selling off players such as Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson until they owned contracts worth just $39.6 million.

Those numbers only began to indicate the cynicism many Marlins fans feel toward owner Jeffrey Loria.

“What we had to do a couple of years ago, wasn’t popular,” Loria said Wednesday. “But we had to do it.”

Loria, who sold off the now-extinct Montreal Expos before coming to Miami, also got Marlins Park built, using a heavy amount of taxpayer dollars on the promise he would increase payroll.
He did increase payroll — briefly — in 2012 but then sold those players off after the team performed poorly for half a season.

That brings the Marlins and Stanton to the present, and the questions remain: What will become of the rest of the payroll? He is owed only $30 million the first three years of the backloaded deal. But Will the Marlins sell off other players such as closer Steve Cishek in order to pay Stanton?

Will the roster be lopsided with Stanton’s major deal and a clubhouse full of others making the minimum?

And isn’t there a tremendous risk signing Stanton to a largely backloaded contract?

Stanton will make $107 million for the first six years of the deal, an average of $17.8 million.
But in the final seven years of the contract, Stanton will average $31.1 million. If Stanton continues to be highly productive all 13 years — which is unlikely, historically — the contract could be justified.
But if he slumps, gets injured or never fully recovers from the nasty beaning he suffered late last season, this contract will be an albatross for the Marlins.

Judging by local talk radio, many Marlins fans fear Loria could by then sell the team to someone who would move the franchise out of Miami.

Considering all the possibilities, the future looks murky as usual from a fan’s perspetive, jaded by repeated acts of betrayal.

The next six years — before Stanton will have the right to opt out of the deal following the 2020 season — appears bright.

The Marlins get to keep the National League’s most feared slugger. Even though he missed the final 17 games of the season due to the injury, Stanton still led the NL in homers (37) and slugging percentage (.555).

He also placed second in RBI (105) and OPS (.950), hit .288 and had a career high in doubles (31) while playing a solid right field

Perhaps the best-case scenario for the Marlins is that he continues that type of production for six years, brings the franchise a World Series title or two and then opts out of his deal for even bigger money in his native state of California.

That would release the Marlins from the risk inherent in the second half of the back-loaded contract worth $200-plus million over the final seven years.

As for the Marlins’ ability to contend in the short term, a lot depends on the health of their ace pitcher Jose Fernandez, who is due back from Tommy John surgery by July.

If Fernandez, 22, can approximate his pre-injury success — a 16-8 career record with a 2.25 ERA — the Marlins will have one of the best young pitchers in the game to go with one of the best sluggers.

The rest of the team isn’t bad either, including left fielder Christian Yelich, a 22-year-old hit machine who is coming off a Gold Glove season, and center fielder Marcell Ozuna, 24, who slugged 23 homers last season and is the best defender in a glittering Marlins outfield.

There’s also slick-fielding shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, 25, and Henderson Alvarez, 24, who already has one no-hitter to his credit.

It’s an impressive nucleus … as long as the Marlins don’t repeat their history of slashing payroll shortly after a spending spree.

Walter Villa covers professional and college sports in Miami for The Sports Xchange.

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