The Marlins need Jose Fernandez back in a big way. (Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports)
MIAMI — Nearly 14 months after Tommy John surgery, Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez is set to return to the mound on Thursday against the Giants.
Fernandez, who hasn’t pitched since May 9, 2014, said he can’t wait for his time to shine.
“Hopefully I can throw a first-pitch strike,” he said. “Just throwing and being healthy and giving my team a chance to win — that’s all I care about.”
The bigger question is this: Will it be the old Fernandez, the dynamic ace who captivated baseball with his fastball, his charisma and his brash self-confidence?
Or will Marlins fans have to settle for a diminished version of Fernandez?
Perhaps medical history has some answers.
A 2014 study by the American Journal of Sports Medicine showed that of 147 pitchers who had Tommy John surgery from 1999 to July of 2011, their collective ERAs went up from 4.23 before their operations to 4.67 after.
Fastball velocity for those pitchers went down, from 91.2 mph to 90.8.
The study also showed that 57 percent of pitchers who had Tommy John surgery at some point returned to the disabled list due to an arm injury.
For Marlins looking positives, here are a few:
Twenty percent of the players who had Tommy John surgery never pitched again, so Fernandez is happy to return.
Anibal Sanchez, David Wells and John Smoltz finished in the top four in Cy Young balloting after having the surgery performed.
No matter what, the Marlins, who rank 10th in the National League with a 4.17 rotation ERA, are happy to have Fernandez back.
Fernandez struck out 34 batters in 24 2/3 innings during his rehab outings, but Thursday will be the first true test.
