Alex Colins (3) leads a powerful Arkansas running game. (Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports)
Missouri and Arkansas!
You’ve gotta be kidding!
That game on Saturday in Columbia, Mo., will determine the match-up in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game.
Razorbacks against the Tigers.
Could there have been a more unlikely scenario to decide which team would represent the Eastern Division in Atlanta two Saturdays from now? Not unless it somehow could have included Vanderbilt.
Before the start of the season, what would the odds have been against this happening?
For that matter, what would the odds have been in late September after Arkansas had lost to Texas A&M, extending its consecutive SEC loss streak to 15 games and Missouri had lost at home to Indiana, currently 0-7 in the Big Ten, the only winless team in the conference. Two weeks later, the Razorbacks ran the losing streak to 16 against Alabama, while the Tigers were demolished at home by Georgia, 34-0.
Fast forward six weeks, and it’s this simple. A Missouri win earns a spot in the SEC title game for the Tigers. An Arkansas win sends the Athens ‘Dawgs to Atlanta. Who would ever have thought it?
The Razorbacks were picked last in the SEC Western Division by almost every preseason expert, including Lindy’s. It was easy to understand why. There were nine consecutive losses at the end of the 2013 campaign, including eight league games. Only four defensive starters returned, only 12 starters overall. The only conference teams returning fewer starters were Vanderbilt, Tennessee … and Missouri.
And, there was the schedule. According to several sources, including the web site www.collegefootballschedules.com, there were four SEC teams among the five with most difficult schedules in the country – Auburn, Florida, Tennessee … and Arkansas, which was rated with the nation’s hardest line-up of opponents.
Now, with just one game remaining, the Razorbacks are easily the best five-loss team in the country.
In College Station, Arkansas lost to Texas A&M in overtime after leading by 14 points in the fourth quarter.
Against Alabama, Arkansas led in total offense by 110 yards, held the Tide to 4-of-15 third down conversions and only lost, 14-13. The Hogs fumbled away a touchdown at the goal line, had a blocked extra point and were victimized by a blown officials’ call in the final minutes.
In Starkville, Arkansas had the ball for almost 39 minutes, had over 400 yards total offense, and led 10-0 in the second quarter, and still lost, 17-10.
Then, the past two games, the suddenly resurgent Hogs have annihilated nationally ranked LSU and Ole Miss by a combined 47-0. Only Georgia (13 points) and Auburn (24 points) have defeated the Razorbacks by a double digit margin. They could easily be 9-2 and ranked near the Top Ten.
Missouri fared better in preseason rankings – Lindy’s put them fourth in the SEC East – but that was more due to low expectations for other teams than to a lofty outlook for the Tigers. Lindy’s forecast had them only the ninth best team in the Southeastern Conference.
Gone from the team that lost to Auburn in the 2013 SEC Championship Game were the starting quarterback, leading rusher, top three receivers and the conference Defensive Player of the Year. That’s not the usual formula for a title run in the nation’s toughest league.
In contrast to Arkansas, the schedule looked like an advantage. Missouri didn’t play any of the preseason top four teams in the SEC West and the non-conference games were more than manageable. After the embarrassing home loss to the Hoosiers, even that wasn’t true.
But behind quarterback Maty Mauk and an opportunistic defense, the Tigers won six of its next seven, including road wins at South Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M and Tennessee. Every week you waited for the Tigers to stumble, but it didn’t happen, and Missouri finds itself just 60 minutes away from another trip to Atlanta.
Alabama and Mississippi State fans will likely be pulling for an Arkansas win on Friday. One of those teams will represent the Western Division in the title game with a spot in the College Football Playoff final four on the line. Most would figure the Bulldogs to have a better chance than the Tigers at pulling off the upset in the Georgia Dome.
But then, folks have underestimated Missouri since they entered the league two years ago, and many times they’ve paid for that mistake.
The day after packing away Thanksgiving turkey and dressing, SEC fans will have all eyes glued on Columbia with SEC championship hopes on the line.
Who would ever have thought it?
