Stopping Todd Gurley will be huge for the success of the Auburn defense. (Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports)
Welcome to Week 12 of The Lowe Down. This weekend is a big one for me. I’ll be at the Auburn/Georgia game, or the so called “Oldest Rivalry in the South.” Although some pundits are going with the Bulldogs in the upset, I just think Gus Malzahn’s Tigers are going to be too much for Mark Richt’s team. Auburn is a difficult team to prepare for due to its array of scoring capabilities and bend-but-don’t-break defense — and its home crowd will be off the chain. Also throw in the fact the former Georgia defensive line coach Rodney Garner, who is now the Tigers’ D-line coach (and one of the best in the nation), knows his opposing team’s personnel as well as anyone, that all adds up to another AU win. Last week’s record was 13-4, bringing the yearly record to 154-49. To the games we go …
Saturday, November 16
Indiana (4-5, 2-3 Big Ten) at No. 22 Wisconsin (7-2, 4-1 Big Ten) 11:00 p.m. CT
The Hoosiers haven’t had a tough time scoring this season on offense but when it comes to stopping the run on defense, well, to put it bluntly, they haven’t been very good. Indiana is giving up an eye-popping 217.4 yards per game and has really found the going tough against hard-nosed, physical football teams. Considering that’s exactly what Wisconsin is, the Hoosiers will drop to two games below .500 on the season.
The Lowe Down: Indiana 17, Wisconsin 48
No. 25 Georgia (6-3, 4-2 SEC) at No. 7 Auburn (9-1, 5-1 SEC) 2:30 p.m. CT
Although Georgia’s season hasn’t quite gone the way most college football pundits though it would, Mark Richt’s team presents a serious threat to Auburn’s SEC title hopes due to its offensive firepower. The Bulldogs have been decimated by injuries on offense, but Aaron Murray is still behind center and tailback Todd Gurley (625 rushing yards; 6.2 yards per carry) is close to 100 percent after injuring his ankle in the team’s win over LSU. In my view, a major key to how this game plays out will be determined by the play of Georgia’s offensive line and Gurley. If Gurley is healthy and is able to churn up big yards on the ground against an average Tiger run defense (155.5 yards per game), then the Bulldogs have a good shot at pulling the upset. But if Auburn can bottle up Georgia’s rushing attack and force the Dawgs into passing situations, then that will play right into the teeth of an Ellis Johnson-coached defense that excels at getting after the QB and forcing turnovers. Quarterback Nick Marshall and the Auburn offense will get their yards — and points — but the outcome of this game will be determined by the Tigers ability to stop the run. Period.
The Lowe Down: Georgia 26, Auburn 34
No. 16 Michigan State (8-1, 5-0 Big Ten) at Nebraska (7-2, 4-1 Big Ten) 2:30 p.m. CT
The Spartans are just a few bad pass-interference calls away from being undefeated and without Taylor Martinez behind center for Nebraska, I just don’t see the Cornhuskers winning this game. Yes, freshman Tommy Armstrong has done an admirable job filling in for Martinez, but he hasn’t seen a defense of Michigan State’s caliber and that will show up here.
The Lowe Down: Michigan State 26, Nebraska 13
No. 12 Oklahoma State (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) at No. 24 Texas (7-2, 6-0 Big 12) 2:30 p.m. CT
Mack Brown was on a seat as hot as the sun after his Texas team was outscored 84-44 in two early-season losses to BYU and Ole Miss, but since then the Longhorns have reeled off six straight victories, including a dramatic overtime win at West Virginia last week. One big reason for the dramatic improvement has been a ridiculously soft schedule. The last six opponents won a total of 23 games. The Longhorns next three opponents, starting with OSU, are 23-4. We’ll see how far the Longhorns have come this weekend.
The Lowe Down: Oklahoma State 31, Texas 28
No. 23 Miami (7-2, 3-2 ACC) at Duke (7-2, 3-2 ACC) 2:30 p.m. CT
It’s hard to imagine Duke squaring off in the ACC Championship Game against Florida State, but that’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially if the Blue Devils can upset a banged up Miami team. Duke isn’t the flashiest squad, but it’s used a balanced offense and a surprisingly stout defense to reel off five wins in row. Quarterback Anthony Boone is a guy that can hurt a defense with his big arm and legs, and Brandon Connette is a quality runner who also see plenty of PT. Combine the playmaking of those two in with dynamic receiver Jamison Crowder and a veteran offensive line, and the Blue Devils can give teams fits offensively. Expect that to happen against the Hurricanes, who have gone into a late-season tailspin.
The Lowe Down: Miami 23, Duke 28
Utah (4-5, 1-5 Pac-12) at No. 6 Oregon (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) 3:00 p.m. CT
The Ducks national title hopes went down the drain after they were upset by Stanford, but they can still make it to the Pac-12 title game if they win out and the Cardinal slips up and loses. One big question mark for Oregon moving forward is the health of quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mariota’s knee was injured in the win over UCLA and was re-aggravated after being beat up by the Cardinal D. He’s the key to the car in the Ducks’ offense and seeing how he copes with his injury will be a major key to the rest of UO’s season. Regardless, Oregon gets it done against the Utes.
The Lowe Down: Utah 18, Oregon 41
Houston (7-2, 4-1 AAC) at No. 20 Louisville (8-1, 4-1 AAC) 6:00 p.m. CT
It’s a battle of AAC heavyweights! And who cares? Ever since the Cardinals were stunned by UCF, they haven’t been the same team. The Cardinals win, but they won’t by much.
The Lowe Down: Houston 27, Louisville 30
No. 1 Alabama (9-0, 6-0 SEC) at Mississippi State (4-5, 1-4 SEC) 6:45 p.m. CT
Consistent! When I think of Alabama that is the first word that comes to mind. Nick Saban-coached teams are always big, smart, fast, strong and physical, but there’s not a lot of steeps and valleys with the outfit, regardless of the year. Mississippi State has some weapons on offense (aka freshman sensation De’Runnya Wilson and QB Dak Prescott), but its defense isn’t good. Bama rolls again here.
The Lowe Down: Alabama 45, Mississippi State 21
No. 4 Stanford (8-1, 6-1 Pac-12) at USC (7-3, 4-2 Pac-12) 7:00 p.m. CT
Although Stanford just knocked off Oregon, don’t be surprised if the upstart Trojans give the Cardinal all they want. USC has big-play weapons on offense and its defensive line is one of the nation’s best. Call me crazy, but look for the Ed Orgeron-led Trojans to pull the upset.
The Lowe Down: Stanford 28, USC 31
In other Saturday games:
Troy 23, Ole Miss 51
Cincinnati 27, Rutgers 24
Iowa State 20, No. 18 Oklahoma 35
No. 17 UCF 27, Temple 14
No. 3 Ohio State 52, Illinois 10
Kentucky 23, Vanderbilt 34
Syracuse 7, No. 2 Florida State 55
Michigan 23, Northwestern 30
TCU 21, Kansas State 30
Texas Tech 20, No. 5 Baylor 54
Florida 13, No. 10 South Carolina 38
