Bo Wallace led the Rebels to win of the biggest wins in school history. (Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)
It was supposed to be Separation Saturday. An unprecedented line-up of games matching top teams could let the highest ranked teams step forward in the race for the College Football Playoff.
What you got instead was Upset Saturday. Four of the top six teams (No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Alabama, No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 6 Texas A&M) were defeated by lower ranked teams. Eleven of the Top 20 teams in the Coaches Poll lost. There had never been a day like this since they started ranking college teams.
Not sure that there was much separation, but there were a lot of revelations. Some perceptions gave way to reality.
Reality – The Big Ten and Pac-12 conferences aren’t especially strong. After the first weekend of October, there are no Big Ten teams without a loss. Only Arizona in the Pac-12 is undefeated, and just their win over Oregon was impressive. In both conferences, there are seven teams with one defeat, so those races are wide open with no obvious choices for the College Football Playoff semi-final games.
Reality – The Atlantic Coast Conference may be worse. Only two teams – Florida State and Georgia Tech – are undefeated. Just two other ACC teams have only one loss and no team has consistently looked like a champion, including the Seminoles.
Reality – The Southeastern Conference Western Division is so strong that there could be no SEC team with fewer than two losses. At this point, SEC West teams are 31-6, with all six losses coming against other Western Division teams.
Reality – There may be no undefeated teams in the College Football Playoff semifinal games. There are only 10 remaining undefeated teams now. The three with the best chance to stay that way are Marshall (C-USA, so not in the national title conversation), Notre Dame with a favorable schedule, and Florida State with another favorable schedule. (The Irish and the Seminoles play each other in Tallassee on Oct. 18, so one of them will be gone.)
Reality – Don’t put too much importance on early “big” games. Texas A&M skyrocketed in the polls after beating South Carolina in Columbia to open the season. Notre Dame jumped up when it shut out Michigan in Week 2. How impressive do those wins look now?
Reality – Oregon’s uniforms are more eye-catching than its football team. Two weeks ago, the Ducks were fortunate to escape Washington State. Last week, they were steamrolled by Arizona, a team that barely beat Texas-San Antonio and Nevada. This week they play at UCLA, loser to Utah on Saturday.
Reality – There’s not much wrong with Auburn after all. Before Saturday’s demolition of LSU, popular thought was that Auburn wasn’t that good, that the Tigers were disappointing, underachieving and misfiring. But, compared to the near-championship 2013 season, the 2014 Auburn team is far ahead statistically. After five games in 2013, the Tigers (4-1) were averaging 28.8 points per game, giving up 22 per game. This season, Auburn (5-0) has averaged 42 points per game, giving up just 14.4 points each time … that’s a 27.6-point victory margin against a 6.8-point margin last year. And, this year’s numbers have come against a stronger schedule, including surprisingly dangerous Arkansas, nemesis LSU, and on the road at nationally ranked Kansas State.
Reality – Alabama needs to be careful. Before Saturday’s loss to Ole Miss, popular thought was that the Tide was the class of the SEC, included on everybody’s list of four teams for the inaugural College Football Playoff. Alabama has now won just four of its last seven games, and has lost three consecutive games to nationally ranked teams. Still ahead are Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn (combined 15-1 record), and even the game at Arkansas next week looks challenging now.
Reality – The importance of a returning quarterback can’t be over-emphasized. Look at the three undefeated SEC teams – Auburn (Nick Marshall), Mississippi State (Dak Prescott), Ole Miss (Bo Wallace). How about the three teams that lost to that trio on Saturday – Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU (all with first-year quarterback starters)? How about Baylor (Heisman contender Bryce Petty), Notre Dame (resurgent Everett Golson), Florida State (Jameis Winston) and even Marshall (senior record-setter Rakeem Cato)? Their success is not a coincidence.
Reality – The first polls shouldn’t come out until after the first weekend of October. Preseason predictions are good (keep coming to Lindy’s for those), but votes that count should not start until at least after the first month of football. Early polls this year were primarily based on how teams did during the 2013 season. That has nothing to do with how good the 2014 team might be. And, speaking of polls, this week’s Associated Press poll has Florida State at No. 1, barely ahead of No. 2 Auburn … 1,561 – 1,559 points. The difference could barely be closer, just like when the game ended in the Rose Bowl in January. Looks like the more things change, the more they stay the same … at least for another week.
