THE LOWE DOWN

The Lowe Down on Week One: SEC powers, FSU win big

Matt Lowe

August 29, 2014 at 3:06 pm.

Terrence Magee is one of several dynamic runners for LSU. (Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports)

Gas it up, load the cooler, turn up the tunes and hop on board. This College Football Playoff boat is about set to sail on its maiden voyage, leaving computer-based BCS Island without even looking back.

No more relying on arithmetic or logical operations to automatically select our national championship game participants. Uh, uh. No sir. The new four-team playoff format will be determined by a highly intelligent, football-savvy 13-person committee, which includes a Lieutenant General (Mike Gould), a former U.S. Secretary of State (Condoleezza Rice), a former Bobby Petrino boss (Arkansas AD Jeff Long; I know, there’s a number of those) a Rhodes Scholar (USC AD Pat Haden) and the Godfather of quarterbacks, Archie Manning, just to name a few.

The committee, which will receive no pay, has been given an iPad specifically loaded with software that will allow them to watch any game at any time so they will not have to travel to every game. During the midway point of the season, the committee will begin to “rank” its Top 25, for informational purposes only, all the way until the final vote (committee members will be excused on vote if they have an allegiance to a particular school in the playoff hunt) on Dec. 6-7. That’s when the four teams will be revealed.

And just to throw it out there, none of these extremely talented individuals will show any bias (wink, wink), and the group as a whole will be required to pick the best four teams at the end based on win-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents and conference championships.

That’s right, no more computer mumbo jumbo folks. The future of the college football postseason rests in the hands of 13 individuals. Let’s just hope for their sake that it all shakes out like it should. Americans like to complain. And poor old No. 5’s fan base will be doing a lot of that when it gets left out in the cold.

Good luck to your team this season. And for the record, I like Auburn, Alabama, FSU and Michigan State to make the first ever College Football Playoff. To the games we go …

Follow Matt on Twitter @MattLowe777

Thursday, August 28

No. 21 Texas A&M at No. 9 South Carolina 5:00 p.m. CT

A lot of media folks are high on the Gamecocks this season, but losing talented players like quarterback Connor Shaw, defensive linemen Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles and corners Victor Hampton and Jimmy Legree will be felt. Tailback Mike Davis is banged up and middle linebacker Skai Moore, the team’s top defensive playmaker a year ago, won’t start due to disciplinary purposes. That’s a lot of personnel issues. Texas A&M didn’t have a defense last year, but it added some serious talent to that side of the ball in the offseason. Sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill is a dual-threat who can hurt opponents with his feet, and he will operate behind a talented, and experienced, offensive line. All the aforementioned factors should give the Aggies a good shot at pulling the upset.

The Lowe Down: Texas A&M 27, South Carolina 31

Boise State vs. No. 18 Ole Miss (Atlanta) 7:00 p.m. CT

Before you get caught up in thinking this is the Kellen Moore-led Broncos, think again. Moore is playing the in NFL and his former head coach, Chris Peterson, flew the coop to Washington. I know Ole Miss has some question marks on its offensive line, but the Rebels have some quality talent on D and quarterback Bo Wallace and receiver Laquon Treadwell can give any defense problems. Treadwell is a future pro and I’m not sure Boise has anyone that can cover him. Look for the Rebels to roll here.

The Lowe Down: Ole Miss 30, Boise State 13

In other Thursday games:

Rutgers 30, Washington State 33

Weber State 7, No. 19 Arizona State 65

Friday, August 29

BYU at UCONN 6:00 p.m. CT

BYU quarterback Taysom Hill is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in America and tailback Jamaal Williams is a big-time runner (1,233 yards last season). That should be an interesting matchup against a Huskies defense that ranked 23rd nationally against the run a year ago. The Cougars get the win here, but it won’t be an easy one.

The Lowe Down: BYU 24, UCONN 13

Saturday, August 30

Penn State vs. UCF (Dublin, Ireland) 7:30 a.m. CT

UCF will start a freshman quarterback (Pete DiNovo) for the first time in nearly two decades following Blake Bortles’ departure. But the real area of concern for the Knights may be the offensive line (replacing three starters). The defense, led by linebacker Terrance Plummer and end Thomas Niles, has the goods to contain a retooled Nittany Lions offense, but protecting DiNovo and establish a productive ground game will be crucial in this contest. Penn State has major question marks along its offensive line as well, but it has experience behind center in sophomore Christian Hackenberg. That can go a long way in a season opener being played a long way from home.

The Lowe Down: UCF 23, Penn State 26

No. 5 Ohio State vs. Navy (Baltimore) 11:00 a.m. CT

The loss of Braxton Miller is a very unfortunate blow for the Buckeyes, but don’t give up on the season just yet Ohio State fans. We’ve seen over the last few years that quarterbacks can come out of nowhere and emerge as stars. It just opens up an opportunity for another player … and that player happens to be redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett. Head coach Urban Meyer has praised Barrett’s ability to get the ball to his playmakers since stepping into the lead QB role. We’ll see how well he does that Saturday. And even if he struggles a little, I think the Buckeyes have enough talent to handle a Navy team that always relies on smarts, execution and technique more than sheer skill.

The Lowe Down: Ohio State 45, Navy 17

West Virginia vs. No. 2 Alabama (Atlanta) 2:30 p.m. CT

Blake Sims will get the start at quarterback when Alabama takes the field against West Virginia, but expect to see Jacob Coker quite a bit. Although many believed Coker would just walk right onto the Alabama campus and win the starting gig, that hasn’t been the case. But don’t undersell the fact that Sims is a senior and he’s put in his time — and that has to account for something as far as team chemistry goes. Some college football pundits think this will be an easy W for Nick Saban’s bunch, but I’m a little skeptical about that. West Virginia’s an up-tempo team that returns 14 starters so it has experience. The major matchup to watch here will be Alabama’s O-line versus the Mountaineers front seven. Last year WVU couldn’t stop the run and that cost the Mountaineers in a number of tight games. If they can’t slow Alabama’s powerful run game, this one could get ugly.

The Lowe Down: West Virginia 17, Alabama 37

Arkansas at No. 6 Auburn 3:00 p.m. CT

It’s not clear how long Nick Marshall will sit this game due to his off-field marijuana incident, but Auburn will remain in good hands with Jeremy Johnson aka “Baby Cam” behind center. Marshall is a more elusive runner and by all accounts really improved as a passer this spring, but Johnson (6-5, 223) is also capable with his feet in addition to being an accurate passer who has great touch on the deep ball. Gus Malzahn and his offensive staff really focused on developing a more balanced O in the spring; and with the Tigers’ ridiculously talented receiving corps, led by Sammie Coates, look for the Auburn to test Arkansas pass defense early and often. The Razorbacks’ powerful running back duo of Alex Collins and Johnathan Williams could present a challenge to the Tigers run defense, but Auburn is loaded on the defensive line and at linebacker entering Ellis Johnson’s second year as the defensive coordinator, which should make for an entertaining matchup. If Auburn’s defense can take the next step and develop into a Top 20 unit, then Malzahn’s Tigers will be a tough team to beat despite having to play the nation’s toughest schedule. Also keep an eye on Auburn freshman Roc Thomas. He’s a special talent.

The Lowe Down: Arkansas 17, Auburn 48

No. 16 Clemson at No. 12 Georgia 3:30 p.m. CT

Dabo Swinney has to replace Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins on offense, but his team still has the talent needed to enter Athens and upset the Bulldogs. Although Cole Stoudt will become the first Clemson quarterback since Billy Lott (1979) to make his first career start as a senior, he’s seen game action and knows Chad Morris’ offense to a T. That could be a big factor considering the Tigers lost their top returning rusher, Zac Brooks, for the season — and may have to rely on Stoudt’s arm/decision-making to win the game. Georgia was snakebit by injuries a year ago and off-field incidents have once again hit the program hard. But the Bulldogs still have talent, especially at the skill positions and in the front seven on defense, and stud tailback Todd Gurley is a load. All three will be the key to a hard-fought Georgia win.

The Lowe Down: Clemson 27, Georgia 30

No.1 Florida State vs. Oklahoma State (Arlington) 6:00 p.m. CT

On offense, Florida State is simply loaded. The Seminoles return the Heisman Trophy winner (Jameis Winston) at quarterback, the nation’s best tight end (Nick O’Leary), stud wideout Rashad Greene, a host of talented tailbacks and four of five starting linemen from a national championship team. Defensively, it’s more of the same. But with that being said, I think Oklahoma State competes in this game. A big contingent of Cowboys’ fans will be in attendance and Mike Gundy’s teams have always performed well in an underdog role. The ‘Noles will get the W, but this could turn into a good game if the Cowboys can make some plays defensively.

The Lowe Down: Florida State 37, Oklahoma State 23                 

No. 14 Wisconsin vs. LSU (Houston) 7:00 p.m. CT

I was standing right next to LSU senior tailback Terrence Magee at SEC Media Days when he was asked about true freshman tailback Leonard Fournette, 247Sports Composite’s No. 1 high school prospect a year ago. “He reminds me of Adrian Peterson,” Magee said, “and he keeps to himself and works real hard.” That’s all I needed to hear. I really like, and respect, Wisconsin’s program and think they have a solid team. But I’m not sure they can hang here with so much uncertainty on defense (lost nine starters). LSU will play both Brandon Harris and Anthony Jennings at quarterback, and there is some uncertainty there, but Les Miles’ team has a major advantage in the run game squaring off against an inexperienced Wisconsin defensive line. Expect a big dose of Magee, Fournette and Kenny Hilliard early and often. And if Fournette is as good as advertised, the Badgers face an uphill battle stopping that three-headed monster.

The Lowe Down: Wisconsin 17, LSU 30

In other Saturday games:

Northern Iowa 20, Iowa 30

No. 7 UCLA 45, Virginia 17

Troy 30, UAB 33

Florida Atlantic 17, No. 22 Nebraska 35

California 17, Northwestern 45

Rice 10, No. 17 Notre Dame 42

Idaho 13, Florida 30

La. Tech 14, No. 4 Oklahoma 57

Fresno State 21, No. 15 USC 45

No. 25 Washington 47, Hawaii 17

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