THE LOWE DOWN

Week 14 Lowe Down: Can Auburn beat Bama?

Matt Lowe

November 29, 2013 at 3:12 pm.

 

Nick Marshall will have to pass effectively for Auburn to have a chance over Alabama. (John Reed-USA TODAY Sports)

Welcome to Week 14 of The Lowe Down. The heartbeat of the college football world will shift to the Plains of Auburn this weekend when top-ranked Alabama invades Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on Gus Malzahn’s No. 4-ranked Tigers. The job Malzahn’s done in his brief coaching stint has been nothing short of remarkable. In basically a year’s time he has transformed Auburn into a national title contender after the team went 3-9 overall and 0-8 in league play just a year ago. In the offseason, Malzahn strained the Tigers to play physical (and with the Auburn ‘edge’) while also being the best players and people they can be.  It will be a tall order for Malzahn and his upstart group of Tigers to beat Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide juggernaut. But after witnessing the “Miracle in Jordan-Hare” against Georgia something’s telling me the ball is bouncing the Tigers way. We shall see how it plays out. Last week’s record was 15-4, brining the yearly record to 188-54. To the games we go …

Thursday, November 28

Texas Tech (7-4, 4-4 Big 12) at Texas (7-3, 6-1 Big 12) 6:30 p.m. CT

Is Mack Brown staying or going? That’s the multimillion dollar question that has to be answered by the powers that be at Texas, but first things first: the Longhorns need to beat rival Texas Tech to have a shot at the Big 12 title. The way the Red Raiders have played down the stretch that seems logical to assume.

The Lowe Down: Texas Tech 20, Texas 38

Ole Miss (7-4, 3-4 SEC) at Mississippi State (5-6, 2-5 SEC) 6:30 p.m. CT

There are a number of folks in and around Starkville that think Dan Mullen’s job may be in jeopardy if he doesn’t win this game, but is that a rational train of thought for Bulldog fans at this time? I understand that State has struggled this season, and it’s never really seriously competed for an SEC title under Mullen’s tenure, but he’s done a pretty good job considering he coaches in the toughest division in college football. And, who the heck else are the Bulldogs going to hire? Anyways, Ole Miss was dominated defensively by Missouri in last week’s 24-10 loss to the Tigers. The Bulldogs have a solid defense, so look for this one to stay tight until the end.

The Lowe Down: Ole Miss 23, Mississippi State 20

Friday, November 29

Oregon State (6-5, 4-4 Pac-12) at No. 13 Oregon (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12) 6:00 p.m. CT

Look, no matter how good Sean Mannion’s passing stats are, the bottom line when it comes to Oregon State is that it can’t run the ball and it’s had trouble stopping explosive offensive teams on defense. Throw in the fact that Mannion has thrown 10 interceptions in his last three games and this looks like an uphill battle for the Beavers. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota (knee and concussion) is expected to play in this game, but just how effective he will be has to be a cause for concern for Oregon’s coaching staff moving forward.  Regardless, it won’t matter here.

The Lowe Down: Oregon State 16, Oregon 49
In other Friday games:

Iowa 23, Nebraska 26

SMU 21, Houston 26

East Carolina 30, Marshall 37

Arkansas 17, No. 17 LSU 37

No. 16 Fresno State 30, San Jose State 17

South Florida 13, No. 19 UCF 42

Saturday, November 30

No. 2 Florida State (11-0, 8-0 ACC) at Florida (4-7, 3-5 ACC) 11:00 p.m. CT

It’s hard to ignore the situation involving FSU quarterback Jameis Winston but until the issue is resolved it’s unproductive to speculate how it will play out. Bottom line, he will play against Florida and that doesn’t bode well for the Gators.

The Lowe Down: Florida State 48, Florida 13

No. 3 Ohio State (11-0, 7-0 Big Ten) at Michigan (7-4, 3-4 Big Ten) 11:00 p.m. CT

Like most rivalry games, the better team usually wins and look for that to be the case when these two hook up in Ann Arbor. One major problem area for Michigan this season has been its lack of a consistent running game. The Wolverines currently sit 100th nationally in rushing offense (128.8 yards per game) and they’ve really struggle moving the rock on the ground in recent weeks. Squaring off against a high-powered Ohio State team it will be imperative that Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner and tailback Fitz Toussaint have some success on the ground. If Brady Hoke’s team can’t get the ground attack going then it may be a long day for the Wolverines.

The Lowe Down: Ohio State 31, Michigan 17

No. 1 Alabama (11-0, 7-0 SEC) at No. 4 Auburn (10-1, 6-1 SEC) 2:30 p.m. CT

It’s being billed as one of the biggest Iron Bowl’s in the history of the Alabama/Auburn rivalry but if this Top 5 showdown is going to live up to its pregame hype then Gus Malzahn’s Tigers must give Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide a game. Can they do it? I believe they can and here’s why. Auburn has a good offensive line and a talented array of skill players on offense and its defense is good at rushing the passer and forcing turnovers. A big key for the Tigers however will be slowing a powerful Alabama running game that features T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake. Auburn has been vulnerable against good running teams and it has to at least contain Yeldon and Drake. If DC Eillis Johnson’s bunch can do this, it will open up more opportunities to get after stud QB AJ McCarron when the Tide goes to the air. Another wild card for Malzahn’s Tigers will be quarterback Nick Marshall. Marshall will have to pass efficiently so Auburn won’t be one-dimensional on offense. Teams that are one-dimensional against Alabama get eaten alive. So with that being said, I guess it’s time for a prediction. The Tigers just seem like a team of destiny to me and that’s why they’ll pull out a classic.

The Lowe Down: Alabama 31, Auburn 34

No. 6 Clemson (10-1, 7-1 ACC) at No. 10 South Carolina (9-2, 6-2 SEC) 6:00 p.m. CT

Although South Carolina has won four straight in the series in relative dominating fashion, I think Tajh Boyd and Clemson rise to the occasion and end the Tigers losing streak in the series.

The Lowe Down: Clemson 31, South Carolina 28

No. 21 Texas A&M (8-3, 4-3 SEC) at No. 5 Missouri (10-1, 6-1 SEC) 6:45 p.m. CT

It’s pretty simple for Missouri. With a win over Johnny Manziel and the Aggies, the Tigers will play in their first ever SEC Championship Game. If Gary Pinkel’s team slips up, then South Carolina will take the East and play in Atlanta. The Tigers played very well in their road win over Ole Miss a week ago and I like that to carry over here.

The Lowe Down: Texas A&M 21, Missouri 38

No. 22 UCLA (8-3, 5-3 Pac-12) at No. 23 USC (9-3, 6-2 Pac-12) 7:00 p.m. CT

Ever since Ed Orgeron took over as the team’s interim coach all the USC team has done is win. The Trojans have won five in-a-row since being run out of the stadium at Arizona State and they don’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. One big key for USC’s success has been the play of quarterback Cody Kessler and a deep and talented running back stable that includes Tre Madden and Javorius Allen. Wideout/kick return Nelson Agholor has also emerged as one of the country’s top playmakers and the Trojans D-line is downright nasty. USC rolls.

The Lowe Down: UCLA 20, UCLA 38

Arizona (7-4, 4-4 Pac-12) at No. 12 Arizona State (9-2, 7-1 Pac-12) 8:30 p.m. CT

Arizona stunned Oregon last week but it’s doubtful that the Wildcats will sneak up on rival Arizona State, who has already earned a berth in the Pac-12 title game. The Sun Devils are playing at a high level down the stretch and they are really tough at home. Arizona tailback Ka’Deem Carey will get his yards, but the Wildcats don’t have enough firepower to take down the Sun Devils at home.

The Lowe Down: Arizona 24, Arizona State 34

In other Saturday games:

Minnesota 13, No. 11 Michigan State 34

No. 24 Duke 31, North Carolina 23

Kansas State 30, Kansas 20

Georgia 27, Georgia Tech 30

Penn State 17, No. 15 Wisconsin 47

No. 9 Baylor 34, TCU 27

No. 25 Notre Dame 17, No. 8 Stanford 31

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