AJ McCarron is looking to lead Alabama to another win over LSU. (Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE)
Welcome to Week 11 of The Lowe Down. As I was watching Baylor and Stanford manhandle Oklahoma and Oregon Thursday night, I couldn’t help but snicker. Year after year the Sooners and Ducks get hyped up and year after year they get knocked down. It just seems to be a reoccurring theme. But it wasn’t the fact that both teams lost, it was how they lost. Oklahoma and Oregon were physically whipped at the point of attack, and as each game progressed it was obvious the physicality of the Bears and Cardinal took its toll. Hats off to Baylor and Stanford for their big wins, and here’s to another wild BCS title chase that will likely go down to the wire. Last night’s record was 2-0. The yearly record is 141-35. To the games we go …
Friday, November 8
No. 20 Louisville (7-1, 3-1 AAC) at UConn (0-7, 0-3 AAC) 7:30 p.m. CT
The Cardinals enter this game as a huge favorite but don’t expect the Huskies to just roll over and play dead in front of the nationally televised audience, especially after they took Charlie Strong’s bunch to overtime last season (lost 23-20). The temperature will be in the low 40s by kickoff — and it will drop during the game — and the wind (16-20 mph) will also be a factor. Teddy Bridgewater and company will get the win, but the score will be a lot closer than expected.
The Lowe Down: Louisville 31, UConn 17
Saturday, November 9
Vanderbilt (4-4, 1-4 SEC) at Florida (4-4, 3-3 SEC) 11:00 p.m. CT
This is a critical game for both teams as it pertains to the postseason, but the Gators are at home and quarterback Tyler Murphy made some strides in the loss to Georgia last week. Florida’s problem all year long has been its offense but it should be able to find the end zone a few times against a Vanderbilt defense that’s allowing a shade over 30 points a game.
The Lowe Down: Vanderbilt 16, Florida 27
No. 8 Missouri (8-1, 4-1 SEC) at Kentucky (2-6, 0-4 SEC) 11:00 p.m. CT
I’ve watched Kentucky three times this year and each one of those times it was in the ballgame until the end. But I don’t expect that to happen this week. Missouri’s offense is playing at a high level behind the playmaking ability of quarterback Maty Mauk, tailback Henry Josey and stud wideouts L’Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham, and the Tigers run defense has been very good of late (held three straight opponents under 100 yards rushing). Kentucky has improved under head coach Mark Stoops, but Gary Pinkel’s club is a much better team.
The Lowe Down: Missouri 37, Kentucky 21
No. 2 Florida State (8-0, 6-0 ACC) at Wake Forest (4-5, 2-4 ACC) 11:00 p.m. CT
It’s all falling into place for Florida State. Just one week after throttling Miami, the team it was jockeying for position with, Oregon, fell to Stanford on Thursday night. That means the Seminoles are basically on a B-line to the national title game barring some unexpected defeat. Out of all the teams I’ve watched so far this season, the Seminoles look like the most complete team. They have a stud QB in Jameis Winston, great skill position players at tailback and receiver, a veteran offense line and a nasty defense. And when I mean nasty defense I mean nasty. The fly to the football and bring the heat when attacking a ball-carrier.
The Lowe Down: Florida State 48, Wake Forest 14
No. 9 Auburn (8-1, 4-1 SEC) at Tennessee (4-5, 1-4 SEC) 11:00 p.m. CT
The Tigers will invade Neyland Stadium riding a five-game winning streak and playing with a lot of confidence, but they must be careful of the letdown bug on the road for a second straight week. Tennessee has played well at home this season and you can rest assured that Gus Malzahn has been preaching to his team the importance of getting off to a good start. The big keys for both teams will be running the ball and stopping the run. Behind a powerful offensive line, led by center Reese Dismukes and left tackle Greg Robinson, and a dazzling array of running options in the backfield (QB Nick Marshall and tailbacks Tre Mason, Corey Grant and Cameron Artis-Payne), Auburn is averaging 306.2 yards on the ground. Conversely, the Vols are allowing 201.7 yards a game on the ground while the Tigers are allowing 147.8. Tennessee will once again be without starting quarterback Justin Worley so dual-threat Joshua Dobbs will take the snaps behind center. Dobbs must avoid turnovers and make plays when protection breaks down or this could be a long game for the Vols.
The Lowe Down: Auburn 45, Tennessee 17
BYU (6-2) at No. 24 Wisconsin (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) 2:30 p.m. CT
Wisconsin’s rushing attack was a major factor in last week’s big road win over Iowa so expect that to be the case again this week against BYU. The Badgers dynamic duo of James White and Melvin Gordon has helped Gary Anderson’s team rack up close to 300 yards a game on the ground, and the Cougars have a tough time with elite running teams. As a result, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad will have a tough time hanging with the Badgers come Saturday.
The Lowe Down: BYU 20, Wisconsin 36
Houston (7-1, 4-0 AAC) at No. 21 UCF (6-1, 3-0 AAC) 6:00 p.m. CT
Houston has scored in every quarter this season and its offense is clicking on all cylinders thanks to the play of true freshman quarterback John O’Korn (22 TD passes, four INTs), who took over for the retired (yes, retired) David Piland. But O’Korn will face a stiff test this week when he squares off against a UCF secondary that’s only given up five passing TDs all year long. Something will have to give there. Offensively, the combination of a good offensive line and the playmaking ability of QB Blake Bortles and tailback Storm Johnson (absolutely love this guy’s game; will likely be a NFL player) for UCF should give Houston’s defense fits. The Knights get it done at home.
The Lowe Down: Houston 23, UCF 40
No. 13 LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC) 7:00 p.m. CT
Although this isn’t the typical LSU/Alabama matchup that we’ve seen the last few years, don’t think for a minute that this is a shoe-in win for the Crimson Tide. Yes Nick Saban’s team is more experienced and better than Les Miles’ bunch, but when these two get together anything can happen. If the Tigers want to pull the upset, they must get big games from key performers such as quarterback Zach Mettenberger, tailback Jeremy Hill, receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, defensive tackle Anthony Johnson, linebacker Lamin Barrow and safety Craig Loston. Those guys have to perform. Period. Alabama is really playing at a high level right now on offense behind quarterback AJ McCarron, a dynamic running game, led by T.J. Yeldon and underrated stud Kenyan Drake, and one of the top receiving corps in America (Amari Cooper headlines the unit), and its defense has rounded into form after a shaky first two weeks. All those factors will add up to a win for Bama, but expect Miles to pull every trick in the book to defeat a team he has a lot of respect for.
The Lowe Down: Alabama 28, LSU 20
In other Saturday games:
TCU 23, Iowa State 24
Penn State 20, Minnesota 24
Kansas State 31, No. 25 Texas Tech 34
Arkansas 14, Ole Miss 38
USC 48, Cal 17
Nebraska 23, Michigan 34
Mississippi State 28, No. 15 Texas A&M 52
NC State 23, Duke 30
No. 22 Arizona State 42, Utah 30
No. 19 UCLA 35, Arizona 38
