Nick Marshall and Auburn have a tough challenge ahead against Ole Miss this weekend. (John Reed-USA TODAY Sports)
The College Football Playoff selection committee will release its first rankings Tuesday night, and the thing to remember is: Calm down.
College football is a jumbled mess of too-many intriguing one-loss teams, and not every one of those teams is going to be get the initial ranking results they deserve. But if the committee is to be believed, conference champions will be heavily weighted in its discussions, so the jury can’t possibly come in until early December.
All those one-loss teams fighting to get off the fringes and into the final four have ample time to take care of business as the calendar turns to November.
What the committee’s first act will do is provide a bit of insight into how they will deliberate when the votes of the 12 members really matter — at the end of the regular season. Strength of schedule. Head-to-head results. Great offense vs. shut-down defense. Margin of victory. Quality wins. Bad losses. Road victories. What will the committee value?
Take a look at Sunday’s coaches poll. Ole Miss, which beat Alabama on Oct. 4 but lost a night game at LSU on Saturday, dropped from No. 3 to No. 9. The Tide, with an identical 7-1 record, moved up to No. 3.
Given the head-to-head result, would the committee have Alabama rated above — especially six big spots above — the Rebels? (Best guess: Uh, no way.)
Everyone can spot the selection committee two of its four teams: Mississippi State and Florida State, the remaining undefeated major-conference teams. Sorry, 8-0 Marshall. Even with Conference USA hiring a PR firm to help sell the Herd to the committee, that soft schedule isn’t going to magically disappear.
After that … have it, sports talk radio.
There are 16 one-loss teams from major conferences, from which the committee will reach into a hat and pull out two this week. Good luck with that.
The deep pool of teams will shrink every week, so the focus will sharpen, as it always does, even while it appears that chaos rules. The SEC West and the Pac-12 South, in particular, will be fascinating.
Still to come: Alabama-LSU, Mississippi State-Alabama, Auburn-Alabama, Auburn-Ole Miss, Mississippi State-Ole Miss. And in the Pac-12 South: The three teams with one loss — Arizona State, Arizona and Utah — still have a round-robin to play, and nobody can count out USC and UCLA, each with two league losses.
The fun now really begins.
–Five Heisman candidates
1a. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon. He finally threw an interception, on a deflected pass against Cal, but he still managed to improve his national-best passing efficiency rating to 192.2. “You expect him to be perfect,” Ducks coach Mark Helfrich said after the game. “Marcus is such a stud and it’s great that he’s got another year and a half left.” Funny line. Wishful thinking.
1b. Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State. The Tim Tebow comparisons work because he’s bull-strong in the running game, like Tebow was at Florida.
3. Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU. Many figured he would move back to receiver this offseason in the Frogs’ new offense, but his athleticism and command have been stunning in a high-powered attack that put up 82 points (!) against Texas Tech on Saturday. If not the Heisman, let’s give him an award for the nation’s most improved player.
4. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama. Receivers don’t win the Heisman, but if anyone can get close, it’s Cooper, who averages 141.5 yards per game and plays for the right program.
5. A Big Ten running back. Could be settled on the field Nov. 15, when Nebraska (Ameer Abdullah, 156.1 yards per game, 17 touchdowns) plays at Wisconsin (Melvin Gordon, 166.9, 16 TDs).
–Five things we think we learned in week 9
1. This is one crazy stat. ESPN was all over this stat Saturday night, but it bears repeating: LSU is 24-23 under Les Miles when trailing in the fourth quarter. The Tigers did it again against Ole Miss, and then the team gave the game ball to Miles, whose 91-year-old mother died Friday night. “Martha Miles, this is a great night, considering,” an emotional Miles said in his press conference. “I miss you ma.”
2. The dream lives in the ACC Coastal Division. Five of the seven teams have two losses, division leader Duke is just 2-1 and Virginia Tech is last (how weird is that?) at 1-3. Could there be a glorious seven-way tie at 4-4 in this most mediocre of divisions? Still can’t rule it out.
3. The “Little Brother” comment will continue to haunt Michigan. That’s what Wolverines running back Mike Hart called Michigan State in 2007, and Sparty hasn’t forgotten. Coach Mark Dantonio’s program is filled with muscle-bound men, winning six of the last seven against Michigan, and is willing to play the bully, scoring a touchdown with 28 seconds left in a 35-11 victory Saturday. “We needed to put a stake in them,” Dantonio said, a not-so-veiled reference to a Michigan player planting a “a spear or a dagger” into the Michigan State turf before the game. Not smart, big brother. Not smart.
4. Utah’s gauntlet is just beginning. The Utes pulled out a thrilling 24-21 win vs. USC with a touchdown pass in the final seconds to improve to 6-1 and take control of their destiny in the Pac-12 South. Utah has been a great story, but a happy ending is still far away: The next four games are at Arizona State, vs. Oregon, at Stanford and vs. Arizona.
5. This is another sign of the times in college football. In Louisiana Tech’s 31-20 victory at Southern Miss, the teams combined for 802 passing yards but rushed for minus-1 yard.
–Five players to watch
1. Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State. He bull-rushed Penn State running back Akeel Lynch into quarterback Christian Hackenburg for a game-winning fourth-down sack at the end of the second overtime. “I didn’t even know I sacked him. I just hit the back and pretty much passed out on the field because I was so tired,” he said. Bosa’s 2.5 sacks vs. the Nittany Lions gave him eight for the season.
2. Scooby Wright, LB, Arizona. The sophomore has emerged as a needed defensive force for the Wildcats; you’ll remember him for his “Scooby Strip” of Oregon’s Marcus Mariota in Arizona’s win in Eugene. Playing mostly as an edge rusher vs. Washington State, he had three sacks and three forced fumbles.
3. Justin Hardy, WR, East Carolina. He’s easily on pace to break the FBS record of career catches of 349, held by Oklahoma’s Ryan Broyles. His 14 catches Saturday pushed his career total to 327.
4. Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington. With a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first start, rain falling and wind swirling in Husky Stadium, UW needed something to jump-start an offense. Thompson at running back was the answer. Although it wasn’t enough to beat Arizona State, Thompson ran 21 times for 98 yards, further making his case as this season’s top two-way player.
5. Duke Johnson, RB, Miami. He ran for a career-high 249 yards in a beat-down of Virginia Tech and he’ll be a load for Florida State to handle on Nov. 15.
–Five best week 10 games
1. Auburn at Ole Miss, Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Rebels quarterback Bo Wallace will have to overcome short-term memory (his late pick Saturday at LSU) and long-term memory (two interceptions, six sacks vs. Auburn last season) in a SEC West showdown.
2. Utah at Arizona State, Saturday, 11 p.m. ET (FOX Sports 1). Energy drink alert, East Coasters! Late night Pac-12 football almost never disappoints.
3. TCU at West Virginia, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). If each team hits its average, there will be 1,100 yards of offense in this game. Loser suffers second Big 12 defeat.
4. Stanford at Oregon, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Stanford needs to muster more offense, but the Cardinal’s defense is still salty enough that a third straight victory over the Ducks isn’t out of the question. The Pac-12 North might hang in the balance.
5. Arizona at UCLA, Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Remember what we said about late night Pac-12 football?
Honorable mention: Florida State at Louisville (Thursday), Florida vs. Georgia.
NFLDraftScout.com: Film Room Review
Analyst Rob Rang’s five prospect takeaways for this week. Players listed including position, school, year (Height, weight and current NFLDraftScout.com overall rating and by position).
1. DE Za’Darius Smith, Kentucky, Sr. (6-5-264, #168/#18): Well-built with long arms and heavy hands to fight through blocks. His power and awareness helped him seal the edge and keep Mississippi St. quarterback Dake Prescott from running wild.
2. RB Duke Johnson, Jr. (5-9, 206, #59/#6): Johnson averaged 8.6 yards on 29 carries against Virginia Tech, alternately impressing with his burst, agility, light feet to high-step through tackles and an effective stiff-arm.
3. DE Alvin “Bud” Dupree, Kentucky, rSr. (6-4, 267, #40/#8): Boasting long arms, a quick burst and the agility to evade cut-blocks, Dupree (pronounced Doo-prey) projects well as traditional 4-3 defensive end or in the stand-up outside linebacker role he currently stars for the Wildcats. Often asked to drop into coverage or flatten his rushes in an attempt to keep Prescott from scrambling, built upon his impressive resume and contributed to some big hits on Prescott.
4. WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State, rJr. (6-4, 212, #47/#8): Strong caught a 16-yard TD in front of Washington cornerback Marcus Peters in the second quarterback and then made a critical fourth-quarter reception on a deep post on the Sun Devils’ game-winning drive.
5. RB Josh Robinson, Mississippi St., rJr. (5-9, 215, #28 running back in 2016 class): Aptly nicknamed “The Bowling Ball,” Robinson used his natural low center of gravity, balance and vision to rumble for a career-high 194 yards, including a 73-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.
