Championship Sunday: Lean on the side of caution

Will Colts coach Jim Caldwell be vindicated for pulling his starters against the Jets the first time around? (Icon SMI)

 

AFC Championship – @Colts 21, Jets (+7 ½) 14 – This game sets up possibly the irony of all ironies in NFL history. Look back to Week 16; Jets @ Colts: Indianapolis with a 15-10 lead and coach Jim Caldwell pulls his starters early in the third quarter, which costs Indy the opportunity for an undefeated season. Reasoning is that the Colts have locked up home field so why possibly sacrifice a freak injury to Peyton Manning or some other key Colt.

 

The Jets had to win that game to have a shot to make the playoffs; otherwise, Rex Ryan and his walking sound bites were doomed to the scrutiny in the New York media for not making the playoffs after a quick start.

 

Now Sunday, here come the Jets back into Lucas Oil stadium with a chance to not only go to the Super Bowl with a win, but also rub the Colts face in the dust for playing with the credibility of the game of football.

 

This game comes down to two major key: (1) Is Indianapolis physical enough to stop the Jets running game as rookie Shonn Greene has emerged ahead of Thomas Jones in breaking out as the feature back? (2) Can the Jets get enough pressure on Peyton Manning to take away the downfield threats he possesses? Corner Darrelle Revis will take away whichever side of the field he lines up on. The key will be if he stops Reggie Wayne in the passing game, how well will the Colts adjust. Seemingly, Manning will shorten things and use Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon in shorter routs. If Indianapolis fosters a running game, this could be easier than expected.

 

NFC Championship - @Saints (-3 ½) 31, Vikings 27 – The Superdome will be up for grabs on Sunday as the New Orleans Saints finally host an NFC Championship after 43 years of existence. The major key in this game centers on how well New Orleans’ offensive line can handle the Vikings front four of Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and Ray Edwards. Last week, The Vikings front ate Dallas quarterback Tony Romo for lunch by forcing him into four turnovers.

 

Drew Brees at home will be an altogether different entity. He moves up in the pocket and makes the big play possibly better than anyone in the game. He also rolls out and finds his wealth of receivers for big gains as well. The key for Sean Payton is to keep Brees’ whereabouts unpredictable.

 

The Saints running game behind Lynell Hamilton and Mike Bell has gotten more efficient as the season progressed. Bell proves to be a hard runner and can get yardage between the tackles. Again, the key is blocking the vaunted Vikes’ front four. Reggie Bush’s penchant for the big play helped New Orleans break open last week’s 45-14 win over the Cardinals. He could be a key again this week.

 

There are any number of playmakers on both sides of the field that could control the game. New Orleans has Brees, Bush, receivers Marques Colston and up-and-coming Robert Meacham. Minnesota of course has the venerable Brett Favre, who still seems to be able to motivate his teammates through his enthusiasm and playmaking at age 40. Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are also major playmaking wide outs that can control the game as well. Minnesota boasts the game’s best runner in Adrian Peterson.

 

Watch for the Saints to rush to a nice early lead and dictate tempo with a game plan aimed at diversification on offense to keep Minnesota’s front four off balance.